It's not the fact that this is the beginning of the end of any hope of some sort of fiscal austerity in the US, but something else.
Can any astute aspiring, deputy economists see it?
Monday, October 15, 2007
Do You See What I See?
I saw this and noticed something interesting.
It's not the fact that this is the beginning of the end of any hope of some sort of fiscal austerity in the US, but something else.
Can any astute aspiring, deputy economists see it?
It's not the fact that this is the beginning of the end of any hope of some sort of fiscal austerity in the US, but something else.
Can any astute aspiring, deputy economists see it?
Ariel Cohen at the U of MN Law School
Hey All,
CFACT is hosting Ariel Cohen to talk about energy and Iraq. They had me come in and do a seminar a while ago, so you KNOW they have great speakers! ;)
In any case I promised them I'd let any of you aspiring, junior, deputy and otherwise interested economists know the time and location. Here's the info;
CFACT is hosting Ariel Cohen to talk about energy and Iraq. They had me come in and do a seminar a while ago, so you KNOW they have great speakers! ;)
In any case I promised them I'd let any of you aspiring, junior, deputy and otherwise interested economists know the time and location. Here's the info;
I wanted to let you know that CFACT is hosting Dr. Ariel Cohen of the
Heritage Foundation this Thursday, October 18 at 7PM in Room 55 of the
University of Minnesota Law School. You can find out more about
Cohen's bio here: http://www.heritage.org/about/staff/ArielCohen.cfm
The gist of his speech is on US energy security and specifically what
would happen if a conflict with Iran erupted. I would like to invite
you to this event, and if you believe your readers would find this
topic interesting feel free to share this information - they are also
welcome.
Sunday, October 14, 2007
Why Sociology Degrees Are Worthless
I used to teach at a community college and in doing so was teaching some of the lesser privilaged kids. And by that time if you really want to help them, you have to shed the touchy feely BS they feed them in k-12 education and deal them the hard facts of life that might actually help them;
"No, majoring in travel and hospitality will not make you $50,000 a year fresh out of college."
"No, majoring in hair salonistry will not make you a millionaire and no you won't work in Hollywood."
And thus they are crushed, but at least they are introduced to the real world at the younger age of 21-22 instead of being lied to until they're 40.
But still to this day I am amazed at the vitrolic and hate-filled response I get from students, younger people and even older people when I tell them majoring in sociology, philosophy, or travel and such is essentially a waste of time. In a sad sense it shows you how humans rather be lied to than told the truth, even if it is in their best interest...essentially how the democrats and socialists stay in power.
Regardless, reason sometimes doesn't work on people, leaving statistics to your last resort.
Mayhaps this will explain why farming subsidies and the auto industry are becoming obsolete;
Friday, October 12, 2007
They Get Yulia, While We Get Hillary...Cripes
Hubba hubba!
A new woman after the Captain's heart! Yulia Tymoshenko!
Not only is she a looker, but she is an economist too! (What is it with all these former Soviet Bloc women and their impressive degrees?)
You can read more about her here.
All I want to know is why the Ukrainians get Yulia, while we're stuck with Hilary.
A new woman after the Captain's heart! Yulia Tymoshenko!
Not only is she a looker, but she is an economist too! (What is it with all these former Soviet Bloc women and their impressive degrees?)
You can read more about her here.
All I want to know is why the Ukrainians get Yulia, while we're stuck with Hilary.
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Home Foreclosures
Early on in the crash of the housing market, people and pundits were quick to point out that mortgages that were either delinquent or in default were a very small percentage of total mortgages outstanding. That even the sub prime loans were suffering no more than a 4% default/delinquency rate. This they pointed to as proof that the housing crash was not a big threat and therefore we should stop worrying about it.
The problem with that is that it was in the here and now. When the real threat was what was going to happen to default and delinquency rates. The Economist has an excellent article discussing the various percentages of different types of loans that are in default or delinquent. Plus, as always, they have a jim dandy chart to go with it.
The problem with that is that it was in the here and now. When the real threat was what was going to happen to default and delinquency rates. The Economist has an excellent article discussing the various percentages of different types of loans that are in default or delinquent. Plus, as always, they have a jim dandy chart to go with it.
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
The Captain is Angry
There is Quentin, a man from Zimbabwe who moved here to escape the BS known as Robert Mugabe.
There is Major Swanson of Swanblog who is in Iraq kicking ass and taking names...in a legal sense mind you.
There's the best radio show host, though he is not a full time one, Walter E Williams who missed his true calling and became an economist instead...though no doubt he is kicking ass and taking names there as well.
There was Gary who had the most kick ass belt buckle of all who showed up with his family and introduced himself and his family to me at the state fair.
And then there is good ol' Lawrence who was a frequent caller to my radio show in my radio show days who I miss sincerely.
And then I see this BS.
And it angers me because you have got to just wonder how stupid are people. How intellectually impotent one must be to put a freaking noose on the door of a black professor. Not to mention the noose incident in Jena, which I'm sure did not add fuel to the fire.
GROW THE F UP PEOPLE!
Cripes.
Nooses???
What? Is it 1920?
Hard core, evil, tripping-old-people-in-the-streets, kicking-puppies-in-the-yard conservative that I am, and try as I might to uphold my reputation as the evil, hate filled, kicker of kittens that I am, I deem it necessary to condemn such idiotic and ignorant behavior (though, such condemnation would seem to be implied).
Such childishness besmirches the honor and integrity of the men aforementioned above and those like them and shows you they will forever be superior people to the idiots that pulled such a stunt.
And while of course, because I'm a conservative, therefore I MUST be racist, I will ignore the association of racism that comes with conservatism foisted upon us by the left and express my disgust anyway.
Though, not to let readers such as Dtrum and Mr. Fuller down (who are beloved connoisseurs of cynicism), and to uphold my reputation as a cynical, angry man, I would be lying if I did not say that the hairs on the back of my neck are standing up to the point I would assert a 30% chance this may be a set up in the first place.
In either case, both prospects are disgusting and shame is plentiful enough to go around.
There is Major Swanson of Swanblog who is in Iraq kicking ass and taking names...in a legal sense mind you.
There's the best radio show host, though he is not a full time one, Walter E Williams who missed his true calling and became an economist instead...though no doubt he is kicking ass and taking names there as well.
There was Gary who had the most kick ass belt buckle of all who showed up with his family and introduced himself and his family to me at the state fair.
And then there is good ol' Lawrence who was a frequent caller to my radio show in my radio show days who I miss sincerely.
And then I see this BS.
And it angers me because you have got to just wonder how stupid are people. How intellectually impotent one must be to put a freaking noose on the door of a black professor. Not to mention the noose incident in Jena, which I'm sure did not add fuel to the fire.
GROW THE F UP PEOPLE!
Cripes.
Nooses???
What? Is it 1920?
Hard core, evil, tripping-old-people-in-the-streets, kicking-puppies-in-the-yard conservative that I am, and try as I might to uphold my reputation as the evil, hate filled, kicker of kittens that I am, I deem it necessary to condemn such idiotic and ignorant behavior (though, such condemnation would seem to be implied).
Such childishness besmirches the honor and integrity of the men aforementioned above and those like them and shows you they will forever be superior people to the idiots that pulled such a stunt.
And while of course, because I'm a conservative, therefore I MUST be racist, I will ignore the association of racism that comes with conservatism foisted upon us by the left and express my disgust anyway.
Though, not to let readers such as Dtrum and Mr. Fuller down (who are beloved connoisseurs of cynicism), and to uphold my reputation as a cynical, angry man, I would be lying if I did not say that the hairs on the back of my neck are standing up to the point I would assert a 30% chance this may be a set up in the first place.
In either case, both prospects are disgusting and shame is plentiful enough to go around.
How Housing Predicts Unemployment
I noticed a while ago whenst correlating charts on a Saturday night that housing starts and unemployment more or less form a double helix...well, as best a double helix that's ever been formed in economics.
But what I particularly noticed was how housing prices predicated unemployment. Specifically when housing starts tank, unemployment usually peaks 6 months to a year later.
The reason would be that housing starts not only reflect 2-4 months of construction spending whilst the structure is being built, but 2-4 years consumer spending whilst the new owners furnish the building with furniture, drapes and X-Box 360.
There has been the occasional instance where housing starts tanked and unemployment did not increase. But that is the minority of the time.
Fun times ahead.
But what I particularly noticed was how housing prices predicated unemployment. Specifically when housing starts tank, unemployment usually peaks 6 months to a year later.
The reason would be that housing starts not only reflect 2-4 months of construction spending whilst the structure is being built, but 2-4 years consumer spending whilst the new owners furnish the building with furniture, drapes and X-Box 360.
There has been the occasional instance where housing starts tanked and unemployment did not increase. But that is the minority of the time.
Fun times ahead.
Tuesday, October 09, 2007
Monday, October 08, 2007
Teacher's Salaries as a Percent of GDP
This was an interesting take on measuring teachers' salaries in different countries. What I found interesting is that Turkey and S. Korea pay their teachers twice the GDP per capita (ie- roughly twice the national average salary).
I also noticed the Scandinavians that consistently rank in the top of international educational scores spend relatively little.
I also noticed the Scandinavians that consistently rank in the top of international educational scores spend relatively little.
Sunday, October 07, 2007
The Real Reason for Detroit's Demise
And just imagine how much of a labor advantage China has over Japan.
The Solution is Not More Spending
While for most people the bridge collapse in Minneapolis was one of the few national news items that highlighted our fair town, you probably do not get all the local news about how the Democrats (predictably) have used this as a rallying call for more spending (and for the call of the resignation of the head of our Department of Transportation who by coincidence happens to be Republican, the politics is sickening).
Regardless, I like this chart for it shows up the problem with transportation isn't the spending.
I still predict that after a long and thorough investigation they will conclude the bridge collapsed due to chance and that there will be no one to blame.
Regardless, I like this chart for it shows up the problem with transportation isn't the spending.
I still predict that after a long and thorough investigation they will conclude the bridge collapsed due to chance and that there will be no one to blame.
Friday, October 05, 2007
Thursday, October 04, 2007
Why High Schoolers and College Students Are Idiots
Read this.
Then read this.
I will lay the exact same criticism upon the Young Republicans and Young Democrats clubs.
All they're doing is taking ignorant, brainwashable idiots and turning them into drones.
When you're in high school you should be trying to figure out how to ask out Amy Sue for prom.
Not posing as some wanna be teenager intellectual.
Young socialists club. Cripes, where's the parents?
Idiots.
Then read this.
I will lay the exact same criticism upon the Young Republicans and Young Democrats clubs.
All they're doing is taking ignorant, brainwashable idiots and turning them into drones.
When you're in high school you should be trying to figure out how to ask out Amy Sue for prom.
Not posing as some wanna be teenager intellectual.
Young socialists club. Cripes, where's the parents?
Idiots.
Interest Only and Negative Amorization Loans as a Percent of the Total
Cripes.
This chart doesn't even include ARM's. Just interest only and neg-am loans. What is particularly disgusting about this chart is that it's for original purchases. Not to take out equity in an already purchased home, BUT THEY USED NEG AM'S AND INTEREST ONLY LOANS TO BUY THE DAMN HOUSES!
The level of stupidity that not only the lenders, but the borrowers that caused this bubble is incomprehensible. How banks could make such stupid loans is beyond the jurisdiction of common sense and sanity. And to the point that over a QUARTER OF ALL ORIGINAL PURCHASE MORTGAGES WERE MADE TO HAVE NO EQUITY IN THE DEAL???
When this spills over into the larger economy and we all start to suffer because of these peoples' stupidity, I want not only the idiots that borrowed money they couldn't pay back, but I want the bankers and mortgage brokers that enabled this soon-to-be-recession taken to task too.
The regulators better be getting off their asses pretty soon.
This chart doesn't even include ARM's. Just interest only and neg-am loans. What is particularly disgusting about this chart is that it's for original purchases. Not to take out equity in an already purchased home, BUT THEY USED NEG AM'S AND INTEREST ONLY LOANS TO BUY THE DAMN HOUSES!
The level of stupidity that not only the lenders, but the borrowers that caused this bubble is incomprehensible. How banks could make such stupid loans is beyond the jurisdiction of common sense and sanity. And to the point that over a QUARTER OF ALL ORIGINAL PURCHASE MORTGAGES WERE MADE TO HAVE NO EQUITY IN THE DEAL???
When this spills over into the larger economy and we all start to suffer because of these peoples' stupidity, I want not only the idiots that borrowed money they couldn't pay back, but I want the bankers and mortgage brokers that enabled this soon-to-be-recession taken to task too.
The regulators better be getting off their asses pretty soon.
Canuck Currency Kicking Ass
I had known the Canadian currency had made parity with the USD, but I didn't know how far it had come from behind.
Going from 60 cents to a full dollar in just 5 years. Canandians maybe should be looking to buy US assets with their newfound purchasing power.
Going from 60 cents to a full dollar in just 5 years. Canandians maybe should be looking to buy US assets with their newfound purchasing power.
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
Minneapolis Condos Tank
Major Swanson of Swanblog and now currently serving in Iraq sent this to me.
And what do you know, the condo market in Minneapolis is going down the toilet.
What is great is I had several of these deals cross my desk several years ago. And like a good economist I not only looked at the individual projects, but also looked at the condo market and said, "you know, I think there's going to be too many condo's hitting the market and these won't sell."
The problem with that is it makes bankers sad. For bankers don't make their money on the successful sale of condos. They make their money on the commission of deals they fund. So bankers don't have an incentive to fund good projects, they have the incentive to fund ALL projects.
And thus much lecturing and stern language was used whilst the bankers explained to me that I didn't know how this market worked. And how I was just some young punk kid that didn't have experience in condo development. And why, Good Ole Jim was the developer for this deal and Jim was a good guy, and how dare a young whipper snapper like me question somebody with gray hair.
So, I'm going to pull up an old chart I posted probably a year ago.
Imagine, just imagine, if somebody had listened to me or the bevy of other junior, deputy, professional or otherwise economists out there that saw this coming a mile away. We could have been called "The Recession Preventers" which would make for a good kind of 1960's, Man from UNCLE spy series, but the heroes would be economists.
And what do you know, the condo market in Minneapolis is going down the toilet.
What is great is I had several of these deals cross my desk several years ago. And like a good economist I not only looked at the individual projects, but also looked at the condo market and said, "you know, I think there's going to be too many condo's hitting the market and these won't sell."
The problem with that is it makes bankers sad. For bankers don't make their money on the successful sale of condos. They make their money on the commission of deals they fund. So bankers don't have an incentive to fund good projects, they have the incentive to fund ALL projects.
And thus much lecturing and stern language was used whilst the bankers explained to me that I didn't know how this market worked. And how I was just some young punk kid that didn't have experience in condo development. And why, Good Ole Jim was the developer for this deal and Jim was a good guy, and how dare a young whipper snapper like me question somebody with gray hair.
So, I'm going to pull up an old chart I posted probably a year ago.
Imagine, just imagine, if somebody had listened to me or the bevy of other junior, deputy, professional or otherwise economists out there that saw this coming a mile away. We could have been called "The Recession Preventers" which would make for a good kind of 1960's, Man from UNCLE spy series, but the heroes would be economists.
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
STOP BUILDING HOUSING YOU MORONS!
Last week they came out with figures that showed housing inventories had reached an all time historic high.
Naturally you would think home builders would dramatically scale back their operations until inventories had dropped and the market rebalanced. And that's your first mistake; You thought.
While builders have cut back production, they have only cut back to the historic average. Since this is a historic level of glut in the market, production will have to be cut to historic lows in order to rebalance the market. As I've suggested before, the best thing for home builders to do right now is take a vacation and not work the next year. Come back and then start building houses again. Alas, when I drive down the Streets of Minneapolis (a popular 1970's spin off that was relatively unheard of) I see new condos, town homes and twin home developments going up further condemning us to lower housing prices.
Apparently home builders just don't seem to get it.
Naturally you would think home builders would dramatically scale back their operations until inventories had dropped and the market rebalanced. And that's your first mistake; You thought.
While builders have cut back production, they have only cut back to the historic average. Since this is a historic level of glut in the market, production will have to be cut to historic lows in order to rebalance the market. As I've suggested before, the best thing for home builders to do right now is take a vacation and not work the next year. Come back and then start building houses again. Alas, when I drive down the Streets of Minneapolis (a popular 1970's spin off that was relatively unheard of) I see new condos, town homes and twin home developments going up further condemning us to lower housing prices.
Apparently home builders just don't seem to get it.
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