Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Everything BUT GDP Points to a Recession

Add another tidbit of data pointing to recession, but since it's not GDP, we technically cannot complain it's a recession yet. That being said, I found this chart interesting showing the trend since the 1960's where commodity prices have jumped (as measured by producer prices) a recession usually follows (denoted by those gray bars).



Don't worry, it will happen. Give it time.

Great

Great, just great.

And who, I ask is going to pick up the tab?

Mandatory economics and personal financial management classes in the public schools NOW!

Oh, wait, that would kill the democratic party.

Monday, July 14, 2008

Housing as a Percent of GDP

Had a request asking how much housing accounts for the economy. Well here you go;

Sunday, July 13, 2008

"Put Me in Command"

One of my favorite quotes from one of my favorite movies is Captain Jack Sparrow;

"Put me in command."

And that is more or less what I would like to convey to all the shareholders out there of;

Merrill Lynch
JP Morgan
Citigroup
UBS
Fannie Mae
Freddie Mac
and any other financial firm that is now having to go to the taxpayer with a cup in their hand.

Put me in command. I would do better than any one of their Ivy League educated, blue bloods and for about 1/2 the price...then again, if I was CEO of all firms, 1/2 of the normal pay for all of them would still be billions, but I would guarantee you this new megalopolis of a firm would not lose even 1/2 of a billion.

Ah, but that is unheard of, an outsider not from the East coast heading up these dinosaur of firms now becoming parasites on the US taxpayer. So outlandish of an idea, so radical to put somebody under 40 who is not a grayhaired MBA putz who's more concerned about his commission than the overall health of the firm.

Ah, to hell with it, I'm erroneously assuming it's a meritocracy anyway.

That being said, I would be the Captain Jack Sparrow of the finance world.

Sub Prime Slime

It is known amongst my circles that I am indeed writing a book on the housing crash (and for those interested parties, yes it's off to the publisher). And whenst at parties this usually begets questions of me like;

"How much further does housing have to drop?" - Answer: 10-15%

"Are we in a recession?" - Answer: Not yet

"I hate Bush, he's to blame for all my problems, including the crash." - Answer: Don't worry, I hear Obama will make it all better.

But one of my favorite responses is when inevitably they ask me who to blame, and I say, "sub prime borrowers" the knee jerk "everybody's a winner" reaction is;

"Well the majority of sub prime borrowers still pay their loans on time."

This response is typically based in pity or defense for those who are deemed "sub prime" and ergo are of a lower economic class and therefore deserving of all benefits of the doubts and are above criticism. And while technically true, the majority of the sub prime borrowers do pay back their loans on time, it's not the vast majority.

Based on "vintage" as The Economist refers to it, sub prime borrowers pain the rest of us with default rates anywhere between 20-40%. It is absolutely inexcusable that not only roughly 1 in 4 people default on their loans, but that banks and mortgage lenders were so poor at analyzing the creditworthiness of these borrowers that 30% of their client base is defaulting.



Now the modern day psychology in America is that, by default, these people are victims. Oh, the poor sub prime borrower. Boo hoo, they are in default. They must have come upon hard times. We need to help them.

I, of course, being the evil, right wing fascist who smashes butterflies and doesn't wash after going to the bathroom, am of the more old school American psychology; let them sink. I am also so bold to call these people what they would have been called all of 30 years ago;

Deadbeats.

Give it time, this too will become politically incorrect word you will no longer be able to use.

Saturday, July 12, 2008

Keep the Bad News Coming

For all you middle age, corrupt, scum bucket bankers out there who put your precious little commission ahead of the solvency of the banks you worked at, I have one thing to say;

Keep it coming.


The more collapses and crises, the better it is for the book and the easier it will be for the younger generation to usurp power from your corrupt asses.

Friday, July 11, 2008

I'm Not a Big PETA Guy

But I feel bad for the bunny.

Herman, my feral backyard, bachelor bunny, sends his sympathy.

You should too. Send Snarks your well wishes.

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Why College Students Shouldn't Be Granted the Freedom of Speech

Brought up under the impression they’re all winners and told their excrement is platinum by their mothers, today’s college students find nothing wrong with dispensing their wise, sage-like wisdom to us schleps. Us morons, us simpletons who do not have the benefit of being so intelligent and enlightened as they. Us working stiffs who despite our age are not as wise as these 20 year old putzes.

And the reason I bring this up is because I have ran into another one of these geniuses our public schools has spit out of the assembly line, sent to the local community college, and now sent out into the real world where I get to listen to this idiot’s drivel.

However, there is one benefit about this, and that is when the topic turns to things like economics, politics and so forth, wherein I might be “slightly” more learned than the 19 year old emo kid, I find it amusing listening to them tell me “how the real world works” and “how the economy works.”

Now there was many things this latest sophomoric sage had to tell me; global warming, Obama is our saviour (did you know he’s for change?)and so forth, but one of them was that if we really cared about energy independence and the environment, we’d get rid of as much plastic as we possibly could.

This was an odd one to me, because I didn’t know that plastic was now enemy #1. So I asked him, “Aside from cutting holds in bottle holders so turtles don’t get caught in them, how is cutting back on plastic going to help lessen our dependence on foreign oil?”

“Well,” the future Albert Einstein said, “because we don’t just use oil for gas, we use it for making plastics as well. And if we all just cut back on the plastic we’d use, we’d be able to do a lot in terms of fighting high gas prices. Even if you recycle your grocery bags, it will help.”

My eyes now rolling, I contemplated asking him what percent of the oil we consumed ended up going into actual plastic, but thought this would short circuit his brain. I doubt he had the intellectual veracity to look it up, let alone develop this idea with independent thought, but instead had been fed a line of BS by his professor about how re-using plastic bags was going to crush OPEC and now, like the millions of college freshmen today, parrot this line of BS to parents, elders, strangers and economists who could actually verify such things.


Doing some quick eyeball math (and generously assuming ALL residuals go into plastics) 4.6% MAX goes into plastics.

What angers me most about this I cannot decide. Is it the fact such a large percent of our youth (and presumedly the “educated” ones at that) have such a lack of intellectual independence and a spine to think critically about such things and can therefore be fed such lines of BS? Is it this moron, and legions like him, are going to vote for Obama and therefore not only negate my vote, but force me to suffer the consequences of their ignorance? Or is it their arrogance in thinking somehow they’re actually wiser than people who have 10 years on them AND the ability to think for themselves? It may even be the slight depression I’m going through realizing this is the generation that’s going to “work up the wealth” to pay for my social security.

Plus, there’s a sense of hopelessness. This was at a bar, I don’t want to lecture somebody who is in under the impression he is the lecturer and I am the student at a bar. It’s pointless, he’s not going to listen. I am tired of being that one guy at the party when he was 23 that wasn’t a democrat or a pot-smoking liberal and having to defend myself, capitalism and America by a bunch of brainwashed dolts, and 10 years later, still having to do so. It gets tiring. It behooves the question, “When the hell are you guys going to grow up and start thinking for yourselves? When is curiosity or an intellectual honesty going to take hold of your thought process by which you kind of prove to yourself the sh!t you’ve been spewing since you were 18 is actually true or not? When are you going to turn off American Idol and the Barack Obama Fest on the MSM and pick up an issue of The Economist or the WSJ? Or is it going to take a massive recession and massive poverty on par with the Great Depression to kick your asses into giving a damn about the country’s finances and becoming good financial stewards of this democracy?”

And then, there they sit. Looking at me as some oddity, like a zoo animal.

“Ooo, I didn’t know we had a Republican in town. He’s so strange looking. Look at how he acts. I didn’t know capitalists drink beer. Interesting. Take a picture of it!”

Regardless, the price for this youthful ignorance that just doesn’t seem to want to go away with age is going to be incalculable. We are still a democracy. And for better or for worse, we will get the government we deserve, inevitably one that is not a democracy.

But at least we’ll be recycling plastic bags.

Food and Fuel

My friend John has a great saying;

"It's still a great country despite the liberals' efforts."



I always say, "Give it time."

Wednesday, July 09, 2008

The Republicans Can Learn Something from This.. But They Won't

And that is no matter what you do, you will still be vilified as those evil, greedy, racist, sexist, puppy-kicking people, because you are Republicans. The Democrats want to be in power, and they don't care if you implement socialist policies, they'll still find something to criminalize you over.

Case in point, George Bush.



GW's ratings would be a lot higher if he didn't spend more money than any president in recent memory. He would have at least not alienated his base. Leftists hate Bush because, well, he's Bush, even though he spent more money on social programs than LBJ. Conservatives hate Bush because, he's not conservative.

So here's a lesson to McCain and any other Republican out there. Quit trying to be everything to everyone. You could advocate nationalized health care and the left will still try to find something wrong with you, even if they have to make it up (Bush caused Katrina anyone???). Be Republican, advocate lower taxes IN CONJUNCTION WITH CUTS IN SPENDING, be an adult and TELL the American people you WILL revamp social security whether they like it or not, because you are the father figure and you make the hard choices for this family known as America.

Of course you can keep on trying to win the favor of your children by bribing them with cake, but something about good parents are "parents" and not "best friends" comes to mind. Ah, heck, never mind, with the lot of Republicans running for office I have no hope for the future.

Monday, July 07, 2008

Who to Blame for the Housing Crash

So there was a news article I saw on Yahoo, "Who to blame for the economy." Apparently there's a web site that allows the "market" of people to play the blame game.

Now, the facts are this, these are the people to blame for the housing crash;

1. Sub prime borrowers
2. Greedy bankers, mortgage brokers, mortgage lenders, etc.
3. Incompetent banking management

That's it, I'm sorry, that's the real world and it is that simple; People who are financial deadbeats and those that were stupid enough to lend them the money in the first place.

Alas, you can sympathize with me and my hopelessness about battling ignorance when you read the "comments" section below which belies the true intelligence of the American public and makes "Jay Walking" with Jay Leno, not a staged event. Here are some samples;

BLAME, I blame all the large corporations who send all there manufacturing overseas and failure to take care of the consumers by providing jobs here in the states. Then we can also look at the war, the president, oil prices, housing, There is to many factors to blame just one thing.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday July 07, 2008 10:39AM EDT

Bush is the number one economy killer...6 billion a month for a unwinable war!!! Oil Monger!

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday July 07, 2008 10:41AM EDT

aaron task & the media

you
Arthur M - Monday July 07, 2008 10:43AM EDT

Republicans...

you
tiago a - Monday July 07, 2008 10:47AM EDT

Alan Greenspan & MF of OPEC

you
evanbubbafoster - Monday July 07, 2008 10:48AM EDT

Congress and their ability to not care about anyone but themselves.

you
j s - Monday July 07, 2008 10:50AM EDT

Nancy (devil eyes) Pelosi and Borat Obamar

you
rlhoman - Monday July 07, 2008 10:51AM EDT

Alan Greenspan and his fellow bankers. Greed is king.

you
lade - Monday July 07, 2008 10:52AM EDT

Blame the mis led war. Country has spent over trillions on war instead of on its people. It is easy to blame outsourcing of manufacturing and service, where has the innovation been. Americal always innovated that is not true in today's day and age. May be someone needs to think of outsourcing innovation to other countries. We are still dependent on foreign oil. Back in 2001 there was a great push towards alternate energy, with the war euphoria, and the expectation that US will conquer Iraq the gas prices will drop to 50 cents. Well non of those happened and the reality is every one got affected.

invbanker81
invbanker81 - Monday July 07, 2008 10:52AM EDT

That's right, D.... The economy absolutely needs to be paying much more for the products that we buy so cheaply from China, India, and the likes. Maybe pay more for the computer that you are typing on. Just a thought...

you
stork2474 - Monday July 07, 2008 10:53AM EDT

Bush has killed the economy by wasting 1/2 Trillion dollars on a war that can't be won and never ends.

you
msinterlectronics@sbcglobal.net - Monday July 07, 2008 10:53AM EDT

you!

you
cherly.gerber - Monday July 07, 2008 10:54AM EDT

Yahoo! Finance User & Arthur M - Your clueless if believe Bush and the Republicans did this by themselfs, Name me a single issue tha you blame them for it and I'll show the Democratic blood all over it.

Rico
Rico - Monday July 07, 2008 10:54AM EDT

Cheney and his OPEC Cartel

bigdaddyreid
bigdaddyreid - Monday July 07, 2008 10:55AM EDT

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out. Greed!

you
b2u_today - Monday July 07, 2008 10:55AM EDT

Greedy politicians and us fools who keep re-electing them.

Sunday, July 06, 2008

Yep, That About Sums It Up

http://www.leasticoulddo.com/comic/20080703

Idiots

When I am king, I will mandate massive economic education programs. And one of the primary lessons will be

Buy LOW

and sell high.

Thus my anger when I saw this chart;


People are making less contributions to their 401k and other retirement plans, as the stock market has gone down.

This runs contrary to logic. Stocks, as just like anything else, be it video games, food or gas, you want the lowest price possible; ie-with the stock market tanking, NOW is the time to be buying stocks, not pulling back.

Normally I would deliver a hand holding explanation as to why this is and the merits for it, but I'm becoming more and more defeatist as I see an increasingly level of insurmountable ignorance when it comes to personal financial management in this country, that I'm just going to leave it at that.

Saturday, July 05, 2008

Sadhill Cemetery

So I was watching The Good, The Bad and The Ugly. It's one of those movies that kind of calms you down and let's you drift off to sleep. A lot like another one of Leone's movies called "Duck You Sucker" which is an awesome movie by the way, and if you want a movie I deem on par with The Good, the Bad and the Ugly, it is one worth getting.

In anycase, usually, I can watch this movie and fall asleep. However, I got to thinking, "Where is that cemetery where the final scene is at?"

So I google around and I found it was not a real cemetery, but a constructed one for the movie. Located near Carazo, Spain.



It's one of those things that instead of visiting Paris and looking at the Eiffel Tower, I'd much rather check that place out. Matter of fact, I think it would be a must. It's one of those things where I wish I had a kid so the story could be told about how "Dad forced us to go visit Sadhill Cemetery" and then when people thought about it, they'd say, "well that's actually pretty cool. Our family went to France, but we never got to see the gravesite from The Good, the Bad and The Ugly. How unique and cool is that!" Here's what it looks like today;

Friday, July 04, 2008

An Astute Adjustment

Dr. Mark Perry over at U of Michigan Flint has made an interesting adjustment to put the price of gas into perspective.

Not only did he adjust for the percent of our income we spend on fuel, but also incorporated increases in mileage/efficiency.


Like I said, you probably spend more money on booze than you do fuel.

Thursday, July 03, 2008

While We're on an International Topic

I am guessing there is economic schadenfraude about the housing problems in the US. And I would even speculate, based on what I've experienced trying to get the book out there, that publishers were gun shy about doing a book that spoke ill of our banking industry.

However, I sense that in Europe, Latin America and Asian, there is no shortage of people who like to see the US get the occasional bloody nose. And not that they're cheering for socialism, but when our spoiled brats of society indebt themselves via a housing debacle, those in foreign lands would like to read about it.

Sadly, I am not too aware or familiar with the European "bloggosphere" and would VERY MUCH appreciate any Captain Capitalismites overseas that could perhaps recommend any foreign sites, blogs, people, etc. I should contact who would have an interest in pushing this book for me overseas.

"Pushing" meaning making a mention of it or a post, not going door to door.

In any case, if any of you aspiring, junior, deputy, American, foreign or otherwise economists out there have any recommendations, please send it my way. The book is being primarily advertised over the internet.

Make a post or send me an e-mail at CAPTcapitalism@yahoo.com

MANY THANKS

or in another language

MUCHAS DANKE

Ich Sprechen Kein Deutsch

I took two years of college German. Why? Because the University of Minnesota needed a way to employ all these people who major in a foreign language but don't have jobs, that's why.

Seriously, unless you're going to become a translator, then there's no reason to require TWO YEARS of a foreign language at any university. Heck, we shouldn't even be teaching languages in high schools. Seriously, how much time did you waste learning a pathetic amount of Spanish or German or French and imagine how much better you would have been served had you instead been forced to student personal financial planning, 401k management and so forth?

In any case, my German is now relegated to phrases from the video games I play, like;

Runt fur ihre leiben, die Amerikan hatte ein panzerfaust

Vehrzingung, aber sie hat ihre grenate vergessen.

Gutten tag, fraulein, schones. Ich bin der Kaptain auf Kapitalismus.

And other such handy phrases.

And I'm sure they're not even spelled right.

Regardless, it was nice to see a jim dandy chart located in one of our German brother's websites;


I can't read the darn article, but this is why charts are so beautiful. You don't need to speak a language to know what they're saying. They're kind of like dogs or "hunds."

Danke.

Wednesday, July 02, 2008

Israeli vs Palestinian Deaths

I found this chart interesting in that in 2007 infighting accounted for more deaths of Palestinians than Israel. Additionally the lopsidedness of it all;

Tuesday, July 01, 2008

Why My Buddy Minh Votes Republican

He remembers the democrat's close cousins in 1970's in Vietnam.



That being said, I will not be voting Republican as I refuse to support duolpolies.

Percent of Income Spent on Gas and Energy

Akin to putting the Iraq war in perspective as to just how much gas costs us, I like to calculate what percent of our income we spend on gas. The reason you do this is because when people say, "the Iraq war is costing us hundreds of billions of dollars" it fails to account for two things;

1. Inflation and
2. Economic or population growth.

And when you adjust for GDP it puts things in perspective;

Thus, I've done the same with gas;


So while I'm sure it's hurting at the pump, it still isn't technically "as bad" as it was during the Carter days (though I'm sure we'll be hitting that point soon).

Regardless, this is not the worst of all worlds and is more of a testament to how coddled Americans have become in terms of their standards of living. Currently we spent about 3% of our income on gas and energy. That's in line with the halcyon days of the 1940's and the 1950's. And it behooves the question, just how bad would a recession be (if we ever enter one).

Understand a Great Depression level of a recession is very unlikely, if for any other reason technology would prevent such a dire standard of living ever occurring (a real recession would have to be created by a massive redistribution of wealth on par with the Bolshevik revolution or social security - har har har) . Thus, a "modern day recession" would be mean (heaven forbid) you have to get the sedan instead of the Escillade.

You have to (heaven forbid) wait two weeks before you buy that new X-Box video game.

You have to (heaven forbid) post pone your family vacation till next month.

You have to (heaven forbid) get a second job.

Or you have to (heaven forbid) quit drinking. And maybe not even quit drinking, just quit drinking at bars and instead drink at home.

Still, It think this is a pretty grand country where these are our major problems.