Saturday, February 28, 2009
The Crisis of Credit Visualized
Every adult and child should watch this, especially the idiots who like to blame the current recession of Bush.
ht
Spit on the Face
I have chest hair.
Ear hair.
Nose hair.
You name it, I have it. Soon those hairs will turn gray as I further my aging into middle age-hood.
Thus, one would think that given my age I am not some young man, or late teenager, certainly not a child, and definitely not a toddler.
Tell that to my girl.
We were eating sushi for my birthday. I had a little bit of wasabi or something on my face.
Now, does said girl say, "Captain, you have something on your face. You should wipe it off?"
Does said girl say, "Captain, go to the bathroom and clean up your face. You have some crap on it?"
Does said girl say, "Captain, hold still while I take this napkin and wipe the food from your face?"
No, what does she do?
She licks her thumb, plying a near gallon of saliva and spit on it and then circa my mother in 1978 starts to smudge off the grit on my face with her spit-laden thumb.
I stood there in utter shock because my brain was caught between being grossed out by having spit smushed on my cheek and coming to grips with the concept that a full grown woman was actually doing this to a 33 year old man (replete with nose, ears and elbow hair).
I just stood there, giving the girl a look of disbelief. I said, "Did you just do what I thought you did?"
She giggles and walks to her car.
Friday, February 27, 2009
Pour Yourself a Martini, Light Up a Cigar...
Then go on to part II.
Then pour yourself another martini and be thankful you're not "Single in the Suburbs" and relatively sane.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
How Commercials Predict a Collapse of Society
However, though my brain has more or less made it so the stimulus from commercials never really gets past my brain stem, something went atwitter in my brain while watching my favorite TV show, Hogans Heroes.
It was daytime and the commercials were all of the daytime TV variant;
"Are you a loser? Then go to college at your local degree mill! We offer Phd's in just 18 months!"
"Are you struggling under debt? Then call the Dead Beat Debt Consolidation Program. Expert financial advisors are standing by now to show you how to not pay back the money you owe!"
"Injured or just willing to say you've been? Call Chitty Ays Lawyers at 1-800-GOEF-SOCIETY."
And so forth and so on.
However, what went atwitter was the sheer volume of these commercials and just what a high percentage of them were for losers. It's almost as if all people during the daytime are idiots and the marketing suggests it. But what was truly eerie was I started to take note of just what percentage of the commercials were for losers during the rest of the day.
These commercials are on ALL THE TIME.
Extract yourself, if you will, from the US and imagine you're from a more "responsible" or "mature" country like Finland or Sweden. You come over here and on the TV is nothing but commercials for debt consolidation, credit cards, worthless degrees and personal injury lawyers. We don't see it, because we're inundated with it, but that still doesn't mean it isn't happening, nor does it change the statement it makes about America. If you take the time to actually observe just what a high percentage of total commercials these "loser" commercials account for, it is a scary testament to the status of the average American.
It doesn't matter if it's daytime TV (although there is more of a frequency) these commercials account for a jaw dropping percent of total commercials. Yes there is the debt consolidation and 2 year degree mills, but can you remember the last time you didn't hear a damn commercial for Viagra? Or some commercial for another stupid, inane weight loss program (because that "eat less and exercise more" concept is so freaking hard to understand). Or a check cashing place?
When I started paying attention to the commercials, two I find particularly interesting because they are a testament to the deteriorating economic condition this country's in;
Consignment shops
and
Cash for gold or "gold brokers."
People are hocking gold and personal items for cash, AND I HEARD THESE ADVERTISEMENTS ON TALK RADIO!
The larger point is this; commercials are a free market (and therefore very accurate) reflection of society. And whereas I would like commercials to be for things like personal F-16 fighter planes, documentaries on economics, encyclopedias, hovercars, surgeon school and other goods and services which would indicate a successful, productive and educated society, sadly it's the complete opposite.
Sex pills, means by which you can get "cash quick," weight loss, debt relief, lawyers, consignment shops, you name it, all point to a society that has not only lost its desire to be industrious, responsible and hard-working, but to a society that is on the brink of collapse.
Of course, again, I'm just the ole fuddy duddy. The curmudgeon that likes to spoil everybody's good time. The meanie that points out mean and harsh things (no matter how true they may be). But if you don't believe me, just try it yourself. Next time you're watching TV or listening to the radio or surfing the net, actually listen/watch/read the advertisements and see just what a high percentage these commercials are.
It really is eerie and depressing at the same time.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Yes, You Can Run Away From Your Problems
Eh, who knows. Maybe Dubai will start an immigration campaign to recruit overtaxed, productive Americans.
Ummm, I'll Take "Parents Are to Blame" for $600 Alex
All humans have the same DNA and ergo, barring instances of mental impairment, all humans genuinely, literally and factually are equal.
Ergo, why I don't blame the kids, I blame the parents.
But you can see where this is going; we're going to prevent kids from excelling as it may be deemed racist.
Help us all.
ht to Maggie's Farm
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Joe Soucheray Should Replace Sean Hannity
Crap.
In his nasally pinched voice "Hello my friends" and all the people calling in "You're a great American Sean Hannity" I want to drive to New York or wherever he is an punch him. Not that I don't agree with him. Not that I don't personally like him. Not that I don't appreciate what he does for the country, but the whole idea that Sean Hannity has the SECOND most popular radio show on talk radio is annoying. And the reason it is annoying is not because of Sean Hannity himself, but because of the people that listen to him.
Sean Hannity is milquetoast. He's boring, it's predictable and it's cookie cutter. But that is also his audience. The stay at home mom that realized her child psychology degree wouldn't land her a job, ended up getting married, having a kid and now, NOW at the age of 40 while staying at home realizes than the past 22 years she was voting democrat all this time was wrong.
"Oh well! *giggle giggle* I guess at least I got Hannitized!"
Or the college kid who couldn't defend himself out of a paper bag if he was really tested on free market philosophy and only does so to belong to some semblance of a club.
Or the mindless American patriot who thinks that because this was a great nation, it still is a great nation and since our greatness is great and because this is the greatest nation, then we'll continue being the greatest nation because of the simply fact we're Americans, and therefore we must be great.
And this is my main contention with the show, is his listeners. They are just as cookie cutter and predictable and mass-produced suburbanite home as his show. There really isn't a lot of depth. There really isn't anything but platitudes and pleasantries of that disgusting and annoying and Minnesota-fake-nice;
"You're a great American Sean Hannity."
"You're a great American too, sir!"
Oh just drop the fakeness, please.
No, but there I am trapped, forced to listen to Sean Hannity as my only other option is NPR or the Christian rock station.
I want somebody that is unique and real. Give me a anger filled, angst ridden, tirade-spewing Michael Savage.
Give me the incredible wisdom of Dennis Prager.
Heck, I'll even settle for the goofy, yet lovable Mike Gallagher.
But Hannity?
"You're a great American! Hello my friend! Isn't America great! We're all great patriots eating at Applebee's shopping at Ambercrombie and Fitch. Communism sucks! And that's why this is a great nation! Hurray for us, we're all Americans! I want a suburbanite townhome with an SUV! Let's watch American Idol! I'll order some chicken quesadillas, but not too spicy!"
Ergo, let me at least beg and plead with the local FM talk station here in Minneapolis, KTLK.
Look, you poached all the good talent from AM 1500;
Rush Limbaugh
Jason Lewis
and (though I don't agree with it, he is the second largest radio show) Sean Hannity.
Since you got Jason Lewis and he's gone national, could you perhaps do the world a favor and replace Hannity with Joe Soucheray? It would be the nail on the coffin of AM 1500 and then you guys wouldn't have to be splitting a market that isn't big enough for two talk stations. Souchery would do immensely better locally, but could feasibly replace Hannity.
Besides, I wouldn't have to be forced into the horrible decisions as to whether to listen to Sean Hannity or NPR which leaving the metro area.
When Men Leave the Market
1. No matter how much brilliant and empirical economic data I posted, and no matter how much if people had adhered to it, we wouldn't have had this economic crisis, it never seems to stick with the average population because it is math and therefore boring. Additionally, unless I say, "free money for every one, Barack Obama ponies" nobody is really interested in economics, no matter how much it may solve all of our problems today.
2. The "man world" is DIRECTLY related to the economic crisis we face today AND IS ALSO THE SOLE SOLUTION to our economic problems today. It is the forefront of the battlefield and is precisely where all economic analysis should be focused (that is assuming we care to solve our little economic problems we face today). You want the recession to end? You want unemployment back to 4%? You want oil back below $2 a gallon? You want the US back on the road to supreme economic and military dominance and security? You want a world where your precious little children actually have a future? Put men back in charge (of course, what is funny, is if things keep going the way they are, men will inevitably end up in charge again, but it won't be the nice ones who appreciate democracy and the sanctity of women).
Regardless, I have been meaning to tie the two together in a brilliant piece I've been planning for a while, but frankly, I really am disincentived to do such a thing because, well... I'm too busy pursuing my own selfish pursuits. It will come, but I, like many other men, are no longer trying to do "what's best for society" and instead are packing it in for our own finite lives and enjoying it while we can before a collapse inevitably comes. Besides, if nobody is going to listen, then imagining I'm on the wild west frontier in Red Dead Redemption is much more fun than yelling into a hurricane.
Ergo, allow me a quote and a link which will only provide further evidence to the ground swell of a movement fueled by 2 generations of genetics in men being suppressed, which, in the end will have their day in the sun;
Sadly, and I want you to pay attention to this statement;
Men DO account for HALF the population and unfortunately MUST be considered when opining about sociological, economic and political matters.
In the meantime you will forgive us if we just plain opt not to marry, breed, or just in general, participate in society. Because, well frankly, what's the upshot?
In the meantime, enjoy the decline!
Monday, February 23, 2009
Dr. Robert Shiller Finally Updates His P/E Data
Regardless, he has hands down the best economic data regarding a very important measure, the Price to Earnings Ratio.
Now I've mentioned this ratio before as to how it is used to gauge whether a stock is over or undervalued. By comparing the price of a stock to it's earnings you compare essentially what you pay versus what you get. The resulting ratio the Price to Earnings Ratio or "P/E" ratio essentially shows you what you pay in stock price for one dollar in earnings.
Historically the average stock represented by the S&P 500 has traded around a P/E of 15, denoted by the horizontal blue line. And though the stock market has taken a 25 year hiatus from sane and rational valuations due to dotcom bubbles, housing bubbles, oh and that whole thing where the Baby Boomers were told to invest their money in the stock market for retirement, it has finally returned to a more sane P/E of 13 (as Dr. Shiller FINALLY updated
this somewhat vital statistic on his web site);

Now a lot of people would say, "wow, gee whiz, now is the time to buy! We're finally below 15" but hold on there little buckaroos. There's just one little catch.
The "E" in the P/E ratio is earnings. Earnings from the previous 12 months. In other words, the past. The problem is the past is not what concerns people or drives stock prices. It's the future, and right now the future looks bleak. Sure earnings were alright for 2008, but 2009 they look to be horrible. And while the P/E ratio may be lower now, if earnings drop, then "E", the denominator of the P/E ratio will also drop, driving up the P/E ratio, meaning you're still paying too much P for what is going to be a dwindling or not existent E. Long story short, you could easily see a Dow Jones of about 5,000.
But don't worry about it, I hear Obama will save us.
Total Systemic Failure
It was 1998 and I was working for Norwest. I was a foolish, idealistic young analyst who actually thought that profitability and efficiency were things that corporations would like to achieve. Led through my studies in college to think somehow managers and bosses would appreciate faster, cheaper and more efficient ways of doing things, I thought that if I could find a way to do something better they would appreciate it.
Now, already many of you are seeing the train crash coming, but in my defense they falsely led us ground troops to believe that Norwest did indeed care about efficiency. That maybe, somebody up top had realized that the brains of tens of thousands of individual employees might actually add up to a higher gross IQ than the handful of managers’ IQ’s. They did this with a “best practices program.”
You see, if you came up with a way to do something better, you could get a $25 savings bond!
Oh goodie!
And so in the monthly staff meeting we’d all be corralled into a big room, listening to management drone on about things irrelevant to our jobs and sure enough Suzi in processing came up with a way to save half a ream of paper per decade, and wow, what a great idea, Suzi, here’s your $25 savings bond for what is ultimately an insignificant contribution. I was of the opinion that getting rid of these meetings which tied up and lost hundreds of hours of labor would be a real efficiency achiever, but thought it better not to mention that
However, I did come up with an idea. A genuinely good and solid idea.
Part of my and the other analysts’ jobs was to take an hour out of our day and file all the paper work that had culminated throughout the course of our work. This was a tedious process as filing typically is. Common sense would dictate that instead of paying 8 analysts $18 an hour to file, we could hire a full time admin for about $10 to do the filing and save some money. However, my idea was even better.
“Why don’t we buy some scanners and scan this stuff in? We could then do away altogether with the filing, we’d free up some office space without the need for file storage, we could even cut down on rental expense as we wouldn’t need that much office space.”
Now this was 1998 and scanners did exist back then, and the idea of scanning was not a new and revolutionary idea. And so one would think that a large firm like Norwest would have the capital to buy a couple scanners and be eager to capitalize on this opportunity for increased efficiency.
One would think.
And that is the problem.
You see, in corporate
Naturally my idea was not implemented (well at least not as first, I found out 9 YEARS – and lord knows how much in wasted labor - LATER they finally did start scanning in documents), but it taught me an important lesson; logic does not always rule corporations.
Now, despite this wisdom I gained long ago, it is that damn natural, intuitive economist in me that automatically wishes to maximize production and maximize efficiency that still persists within. It’s not something you can turn off, it’s just this moral code programmed into your DNA, constantly nagging at you to progress and screaming aloud as you run into inane, obsolete and pointless instances of corporate idiocy. Regardless, I should not have been surprised when I ran into the most recent (and one of the more unbelievable) instances of corporate idiocy last week.
Like everybody else, one of my clients who shall go unnamed is having trouble boosting sales in this economy. It is a retailer that sells “stuff” and we’ll just leave it at that. Ergo, they wanted to find a way to get more people in the door.
Now, knowing this market and working with them before, after sitting down and doing some research I found a market that had yet been untapped or approached by any of this firm’s competitors. This market was wide open, not saturated, not even penetrated and I had it pegged.
My contact said, “That would be great, but we’d have to go through marketing first to see how we would advertise to it.”
And now, yes, for those of you with experience in the corporate world, you see the train wreck coming. Working with marketing.
We waited a solid month before we thought maybe we should follow up with marketing to see if they got our idea. My contact contacted his contact in marketing who said, “Oh yeah, yeah, I got your e-mail, just haven’t had time to look at it. I’ll get back to you in a week.”
“Oh, geez, sorry, yeah, sorry about that. We’ve just been swamped.”
Meanwhile sales are plummeting and people are starting to fear for their jobs.
Another month goes by and my contact at the firm finally has enough, decides to go over marketing’s head, and sends out an e-mail campaign to the predetermined target market.
All it took was one week and the sales department was flooded with calls from interested customers. They had people calling, not only interested in the product line, but willing to fork over good money.
Now one would think this was a good thing.
Sales INCREASED during a RECESSION.
Sales INCREASED not only by a little, but by a lot, 20% for some lines, 40% for another.
Sales INCREASED based on a simple and costless e-mail campaign.
I had brought the firm business.
I had brought the firm MONEY.
It would be like going to a house with a $1,000 bill, knocking on the door and saying, “Hello, here, have some money.”
One would think the recipient of the money would be happy, if not ecstatic.
Ah, but there you go thinking again.
Sure enough, in true American corporation form my contact received a complaint from marketing. He hadn’t gone through the proper channels. The e-mail campaign was not authorized by the head of marketing, and even though it did receive authorization from executive management, marketing was not pleased.
Now I am of course critical of the Obama administration and their efforts to turn around this economy. I think their strategy is inherently flawed and will not work. But, in intellectual honesty it is not just the government that is to blame for the lack of recovery, but the American people, particularly corporate
I don’t know what to call it, but it’s like a disease. It’s like when the organs of a patient start to all shut down and fail at the same time. A “systematic failure” of sorts. That there is no one thing wrong with any one particular part of the body, but that there is something inherently wrong with the entire body and it is practically untreatable. And thus is the same with corporate
Almost on a cellular or individual level where people are so incompetent and so stupid they are incapable of the independent thought necessary to make logical decisions, their decisions or indecisions cost corporate America billions. Lost clients. Lost markets (anybody remember IBM scoffing at point and click interfaces or Ben Franklin retail stores turning down the Walton brothers?) Oh, and the fact this whole housing crisis could have easily been avoided. It is only by sheer economies to scale or massive government bailouts that some of these corporations ever manage to eek out a profit in the face of inept managers and incompetent executives.
However, in these dire economic times, we cannot afford to be so damn stupid if we sincerely expect to turn this economy around.
Norwest is going to wait 9 years to start scanning in documents for their back office operation? Are you nuts? Why?
You bitch and complain about increased sales, practically free money, because it didn’t go through the right god damned channels?
You cave in time and time again to the UAW, knowing full well you can’t afford to stay competitive, and then go for a taxpayer bailout?
Or you ignore the sheer convincing and damning statistics that there is no way in hell your client’s condo development is going to sell and finance it to the tune of $40 million anyway?
With such boneheaded moves, it is practically guaranteed that the corporate sector of the
People in corporate
Sadly, I think the reason for such idiocy in corporations is the same reason we see idiocy in government. Both institutions pull their labor from a dumbed down and entitlement-driven population ala the movie “Idiocracy.” This also parallels my “total systematic failure” theory in that at the cellular level, the basic unit of labor is corrupted. When you only have idiots or spoiled children to choose from, is it any wonder none of the corporations seem to be able to make a profit, let alone had the incredibly simple foresight that was needed to see the housing crash coming? Worse still is that who precisely is going to turn around these corporations and institutions? Government is ruled by ignorant masses who believe they won’t have to worry about their mortgage or paying for gas as testified by Obama’s election. Corporations are headed up not by leaders, but by nepotists and cronies who have no managerial or leadership abilities but rather connections and rich parents. Schools, good lord, children teaching children. Alan Greenspan can’t teach economics. I can’t teach dance. But some 23 year old with no experience, living with mommy, BUT HAS A TEACHERS LICENSE can teach anything as long as you give them the textbook to teach out of. The t-cells or white blood cells needed to repair the
Alas, the only thing the white blood cells can do is sit and watch.
(Future post along the same lines coming soon – How Blunt, Truthful, Meanie Manly Jerks Will Become Sought After in this Economy)
Argentina and the Falklands
And what I like about it is not so much how the Brits roundly defeated the Argentinians, but how today Argentina and their nepotist president, Cristina Kirchner make the occasional threat or claim to the Falklands despite the Falkland Islanders insisting they're British.
You see, a democracy is where the people get to decide whether...never mind. Something tells me that Argentinian nationalists will ignore the wishes of the people on the island and it'll just be easier to beat the Argentinians again if they're so stupid as to try to take over the islands again.
Mortgage Debt as a Percent of Disposable Income
Debt is typically the cause of every major recession and depression throughout the history of the world. Through easy credit, people borrow money they can never hope to repay either investing it in foolish things such as Dotcoms or Tulip Bulbs, or perhaps not investing it at all, preferring to do the American thing and buy SUV's, trips to Europe or degrees in philosophy for their spoiled brat children.
This triggers a recession because the funds borrowed could have been lent to the productive members of society and thusly invested in much wiser and productive things, but since they weren't, this results in a decrease in production which is the definition of a recession.
Now I caught a lot of flak for my posting Canada might be a better place to live in the near future, but again, to show that this is not just some whim or me being in a foul mood, take a look at who has been abusing their mortgage debt;
It is an obscure statistic, but mortgage debt as a percent of disposable income is a way to measure how much debt different people in different countries take on relative to the only thing that can pay it back; disposable income. Again, surprise, surprise, our Canadian brothers to the north have taken a more conservative stance and is why they will not suffer as much as their southern neighbors.
The scary thing, is mortgage debt isn't the only kind of debt. There's government debt, corporate debt, student debt, you name it. And when you add it all up, never has the US had more debt relative to GDP (second chart down). And when you look at what we're spending this veritable mountain of debt on (the stimulus, propping worthless auto companies, handouts and welfare) what possible semblance of future production can we expect?
A Captain's Pet Peeve
However, despite me readily admitting this, about once every six months or so I get the "Oh yeah, well my uncle was at least a REAL captain in the military." Or "Well you're not a REAL captain like I was."
So, since I received another one of these comments recently I think it behooves a vocabulary lesson. Today's word is;
Alliteration
| 1. | the commencement of two or more stressed syllables of a word group either with the same consonant sound or sound group (consonantal alliteration), as in from stem to stern, or with a vowel sound that may differ from syllable to syllable (vocalic alliteration), as in each to all. Compare consonance (def. 4a). |
| 2. | the commencement of two or more words of a word group with the same letter, as in apt alliteration's artful aid. |
You see, when setting up this blog originally, I wanted to have a catchy title. And not just a catchy title, but a title relevant to the topics that would be discussed. Since it was going to be about capitalism I thought "captain" would provide the (here's the first use of today's word boys and girls) ALLITERATION required to make the title "Captain Capitalism" a catchy and rememberable name.
See how it works, the "ka" sound in "captain" plus the "ka" sound in "capitalism?" Like "ka" "ka" right after each other? Catchy, isn't it?
One might even notice the first syllable is the same; "CAPtain CAPitalism."
This is why some people call me "Cappy Cap" which is a simplified and cuter alliterated version.
Now, the lesson we can gain from this is that while no doubt all of you, like me, do appreciate the service of the hard working men and women in the US military, like any organization there are still jerks. And for those of you in the military who want to "score one on the ole Captain" by pointing out he's not a "real captain" I'd like to shake your hand for your service, but slap you upside the head for your idiocy.
Ergo, whether you're in the military or not, please don't make a fool of yourself and use the "well I'd least I don't try and pose to be a captain" argument. It will be summarily ignored just like all the other "when the pentagon has to have a bake sale" bumper stickers.
