Premature Celebration

So housing starts were HIGHER than expected, driving the Dow Jones up to 7,300.

Wow! Isn't that great! Housing starts were higher than economists expected.

Let me put this into perspective for you.


See that little blip that I highlighted in the red circle? Yeah, that liiiiiiittle, teeny weenie, blip. Yeah, the one that looks like all the other minor blips before it? Yeah, that's what people are all getting excited about.

Let me explain something to the idiots on Wall Street who, despite their Ivy League degrees and cash from their mommy and daddies, are still idiots.

THE HOUSING MARKET IS STILL OVER SUPPLIED WITH HOUSING.

Now I know Minneapolis isn't the same as the nation, but I gander it's roughly the same. Months supply of housing is at 7 months. This is 2 months HIGHER than what is deemed to be balanced. The market is STILL OVERSUPPLIED.


And now builders are going to BUILD MORE OF IT????

Now, let's put on our economic thinking caps, and try really really hard and ask ourselves what we learned at Harvard's economics 101 class about supply and its affect on prices. If supply goes up, then PRICES GO DOWN. And this is just housing starts, doesn't even include all the foreclosures now hitting the market, let alone the phantom inventory of homes that once there's a hint of prices recovering will flood the market keeping prices low for a long time.

Additionally, let me tell you something about real estate developers and home builders. The dirty little secret is they're not economists. They're actually galactically retarded when it comes to economics. They never looked at supply figures before hand and they certainly aren't looking at them now. They're making the same mistake they made back in 2007 and flooding an already flooded market with more housing. The reason they do this is because developers are in it for the same thing bankers are;

The size of the deal and bragging rights, not profit.

They have no real skill or trade outside home building and with their egos inflated during the housing boom, why they have to keep up their faux "multi-million dollar real estate developer" image and therefore are itching to start the latest multi-million dollar development just to save their bloated egos (even though it will be guaranteed to lose money). The "City Center" project in Las Vegas is a perfect example of just what idiotic egomanics these schmucks are.

And the stock market so optimistically shooting up on this paltry and pathetic data is just proof how addicted, desirous, if not demanding the market has become of inflating asset prices and asset bubbles instead of solid economic growth and corporate earnings.

Give Me $1,000,000 or the Environment Gets It

The thing I don't like about global warming (aside from the fact it's completely fabricated) is the pompousness of it all. That those who "go green" are some how good and noble people and those of us who don't bring a freaking reusable cloth shopping bag when we go grocery shopping are evil. The reality of it is that "going green" is the perfect "crusade" leftists like because it requires no real work, makes not real difference, yet it makes them feel like they're doing something and gives them something to point to to say, "SEE, SEE!!!! I'M RECYCLING! YOU'RE NOT!!! OH SURE, YOU MAY BE AN ENGINEER WHO DESIGNED A MEDICAL DEVICE THAT SAVED THOUSANDS AND I'M JUST THIS WORTHLESS COMMUNITY ORGANIZER, BUT I PICKED UP A PLASTIC BOTTLE! I'M JUST AS GOOD AS YOU ARE!"

Somehow, deep down inside, I don't think even they believe it.

Regardless, society bends over and grabs their ankles to accommodate this insanity and thus I get lectured every day by inane commercials;

"We here at Chipolte are concerned about the environment, that's why our beef is organic."

"We here at Wells Fargo have gone green, saving three sheets of paper per week."

"We here at GM have made flex-fuel vehicles even though ethanol really produces more carbon emissions than gas."

How in god's name does a freaking bank "go green."

Ergo, I came up with something we all can do on the right/sane/capitalist/non-brainwashed side of the force;

Do whatever we can to COUNTER-pollute.

For example, when I'm at the grocery store they ask me "paper or plastic." I say, "both."

Do I recycle them?

Heck no, I burn them, both.

If it's a beautiful day I do go for Sunday drives with my 8 cylinder Dodge that gets 16 MPG.

Styrofoam?

Don't know what the chemicals are when you burn it, but I'm sure it's bad for the environment. That's why when I have a grill out (using charcoal) I buy styrofoam plates and not paper.

Now there are many things we can yet still legally do, to basically undo all the faux environmentalism crap these frauds do just to make themselves feel better. But the best thing to do is be intellectually honest and give them a proposition;

"OK, you are so concerned about the environment and you TELL me to do all these things? How about this? Not only are you going to quit TELLING me to do all these things, you're going to pay me not to do these things. Matter of fact, I'll have an annual gallon o' gasoline burn off every month until you pay me $25,000. Better yet, you think global warming is going to harm the polar bears? How much will you pay me NOT to go and hunt five of them down? You don't like my 8 cylinder car and my Sunday drives while I smoke a cigar? Well, why don't you make a contribution to my environmental fund?"

The solution to this stupidity was so simple, it was easy to miss. Just do the opposite of what these nutjobs say and when somebody says, "Do you recycle? Do you drive a Prius?"

Say, "No, I undo all the "good" you did by doing the opposite. And I will continue to do three times as many damage as you do, until you quit lecturing me or pay me $25,000."

Thus, I think what we should do is set an "Global Warming Day" where we purposely try to emit as much carbon and greenhouse gases up into the atmosphere until my fund receives (Dr. Evil accent)

$1 MILLION DOLLERRRZZZZZ!

How's June 1st sound? Nothing going on June 1st? Let me know. I'll make the more official rules. "JUNE FIRST, GLOBAL WARMING DAY!!!!"

Collapse Predicted a Long Time Ago

Yeah, it's called "Social Security."

I Love It When I'm Right

For those of you who read the book, I just had this forwarded to me.

It's the destination resort out in the middle of nowhere.

Wow, who would have guessed it would have gone under.

Oh, wait, I did, about 4 freaking years ago!

What You Find on Patrol on the Washington Avenue Bridge

Many years ago, when the Captain was just a rookie private in this grand scheme of life, he worked at the police department at the U of MN for their campus security program. And kind of a hobby I wish I was more thorough about was that I would grab various fliers and posters on the limitless poster boards that piqued my interest or I found interesting. As I said I wished I did it more, because there were some really interesting fliers/posters not from an intellectual sense but from an artistic sense, yet I only grabbed a handful.

Regardless, on all of the U of MN campus, the most common place you'd find posters and fliers would be the Washington Avenue bridge which spanned the Mississippi and connected the East and West banks of campus. And that's where I found this one below (recently rediscovered as I am cleaning out my house);



I certainly hope Tom found the girl. A very Cappy Cap salute to Tom, wherever he may be.

I'll be uploading more, no so much for economic commentary, but more to have a digital record of what I found.

So I'm Watching MANSWERS...

And they ask the question;

"How much can a pimp make?"

Among the many interesting statistics (women pull an average of .7 tricks per hour, roughly translating into $560/day in earnings), the most interesting was the average cut the pimp takes.

25%?

33%?

50%?

No, they take on average 80% of the earnings.

I personally have a hard time believing it, but given it's the black market and thus no government intervention and thus a truly free market, there has to be a logical reason for an 80% cut.

I'm think the women need to form a union.

Jimmy Hoffa, where are you?

Obama Wish List

I think this was from Michelle Malkin's blog, but I'm not sure. Just wanted to throw it up here in case people hadn't seen it yet (click on it to enlarge):

The Classic Case Against the Quants

Today the Captain conducts his job search kind of half heartedly.

He sees little reason to earn more than what he makes on book sales, DVD sales, online classes and rental income in that if he were to get a full time job the majority of that money would be taxed away and sent to bribe the parasitic masses who voted for Obama via social program, government jobs, etc., etc. In other words, does the Captain commit to waking up at 7AM every morning, work all day, teach dance at night, and then somewhere in there continue managing this awesome blog, only to have 50% of that money taken away, or does he just cut back on spending and live the ole college life, keep the majority of his money and sleep till 11AM every morning and keep the majority of his money?

It's a real tough choice.

But, still, out of habit I apply for jobs and look for speaking gigs whenever I can get them.

This being the case I came across a job that perked my interest, not because it looked like an interesting job, but because I had interviewed at the company many times before for similar jobs and it's one you and I and everybody else all knows;

GMAC.

And the reason it perked my interest is that it's a "senior model validation analyst."

Now let me tell you why it should not only pique my interest, but also yours. You see, GMAC received a $6 billion bailout from you, the taxpayer. The reason they received the bailout is because they got in head over heels on the sub prime mortgage debacle.

Now where this gets interesting is that while I applied for many of GMAC's analyst/statistician/modeler type jobs, I was summarily shot down for all of them. And presumably these jobs were given to people who were better qualified. You know, people who are better qualified enough to predict and shield GMAC from, oh, I don't know, A HOUSING CRASH?

Yet, despite these presumed better qualifications, could they have potentially screwed up any more? I mean, come on, these are "big time PhD's and masters degrees economists and statisticians. Why, we're so smart, we have incredibly powerful models that will predict the next time you'll have flatulence."

Yet despite all these genius quants and econometricians, they failed to predict something as easy as the sun rising; the housing crash.

Now I know quants like to brag about their models. Yes, you managed to use all the letters in the Greek alphabet in your model. Congratulations. Wonderful, that will impress the girls and allow you to brag in front of other nerds. Sadly though, these models, no matter how complex are finite and will inevitably fail in the fact the market is dynamic. Just ask the geniuses at Long Term Capital Management.

In the meantime, do you think maybe, just maybe, like girls you should approach the problem with a little bit less math and a little more common sense? A little bit of independent thinking? You know, like how girls like the individual guy, not the droves of Amber Crombie and Fitch wearing drones, maybe your "model" should include only half the letters of the Greek alphabet and maybe a little more "gut instinct?"

Never mind, large multi-billion dollar corporation that just received a $6 billion bailout? Right, try righting that ship. Who am I kidding?

I'll just continue to sleep in till 11AM.

Krugman Mankiw Bet

This is how much of a genius I am. I said this BEFORE MANY TIMES. 2006.

Now Mankiw is getting it.

Come on KRUGMAN, you pathetic excuse for an economist. TAKE THE BET!!!!!

His Nobel Prize would be worthless if he doesn't.

Time for Captain Capitalism's 2009 Annual Chart Contest!

Hurray!!!!!

I almost forgot! It's already March and we haven't had our annual chart contest!

Yes, a contest where Cappy Cap readers submit their bestest and greatest charts in the hopes of winning luxurious prizes!!!!

"What prizes?" you ask, well I'll tell you.

The winner of the 2009 Annual Captain Capitalism Chart Contest will win;

A SIGNED BOOK OF BEHIND THE HOUSING CRASH BY EL CAPITAIN HIMSELF

An instructional dance video of your choosing (Salsa, Latin, Swing or Ballroom - a different girl for every dance!)

A signed photo of the Captain!

AND

$10 US dollars (which depending on the exchange rate, may very well be worthless in a couple weeks)

How can you possibly resist to participate and compete in this contest!?

Send your charts to;

CAPTcapitalism@yahoo.com

ALL charts will be posted (assuming they're aren't completely lame or perverted) and the winner will be announced whenever I feel like it!

Go, do it now! NOW! QUICKLY! DO IT!!!

A Chart More Beautiful Than Denise Richards

Denise Richards is in the Captain's humble opinion the most attractive woman in the world. I would perhaps even forgive her if she were the typical Hollywood liberal.



However, again, I have updated my favorite chart, and I'm sorry, the chart is just a smidgen better looking that Denise.



Look at the inverse relationship between housing starts and unemployment. AND also note the exponential change to both. What makes it even better is the quant drone that e-mailed me one day saying there was no statistical relationship between housing and I should leave the real economics to real economists.

Oh, silly little quants. Go start some Long Term Credit Management company or something.

In the mean time go to your right and donate cash or something for Sindi and Natsha's "Heels and Ammo Fund" -------->

Blame Capitalism

Interesting chart showing the progressive march towards higher standards of living in China IN JUST 20 SHORT YEARS;



And you want to know how they did it? They "stimulated" their economy by pursuing capitalism.

I know, I know, it's falling on deaf ears. Maybe when those ears can no longer hear because of malnutrition because cap and trade put all the farmers out of business they might pay attention. In the meantime enjoy watching the US' bell curves shift to the left.

"Dame" is NOT Sexist

Dear feminists who have no skill and make their living by criminalizing normal behavior as since you have no real skill, you are otherwise unemployable and need to shake people down.

The term "dame" is not a derogatory remark. It is used by old fashioned classy men to describe old fashioned classy women.

If you are so foolish as to lecture me or any one else about the "improper" use of this term, then you can enjoy the life you've chosen of shaking people down for made up crimes which is nothing more than a parasitic existence, as long as you know FULL WELL YOU WILL SACRIFICE A REAL LIFE WITH A REAL GUY AND ANY SEMBLANCE OF REAL LOVE OR AT LEAST FRIENDSHIP.

Jesus Freaking A. Christ.

How do you people live life?

Seriously. Do you stay awake at night trying to find reasons to be insulted? What kind of a life is that? Is it you have no social abilities, no qualities or traits that attract members of the opposite sex, or heck, just no qualities and traits that make people want to be your friend that you have to engage in such childish and pathetic behavior?

DAME?

DAME?

South Pacific had a song. It was heralding dames.

Humphrey Bogart used the term frequently and in high regard.

Men in WWII just wanted and spilled blood for dames.

And it's every American males God given right to use the term "dame."

And all you schleps can do is bitch and whine about it when a guy says TO SOME OTHER WOMAN WHO ISN"T YOU, "you're a cute dame?"

Go to hell.

Although, something tells me you're so screwed up you're already in your own personal hell.

In the meantime, I officially decree all men shall continue to use the word "dame" if only to compliment the true classy women who are smart enough to appreciate the endearing moniker and to piss off those that are so childish and pathetic that they truly deserve to be pissed off.

I can't believe I have to write about this stuff.

One Simple Question

This will be one of my shortest, but most poignant posts.

If it was just a simple matter of causing economic growth through "stimulus" programs, then by default why haven't we just "stimulated" ourselves via government action to income per capitas of $250,000 per year?

When you answer that question you'll not only have debunked all of Keynesianism and Obamanomics, but set a leftist on the path towards becoming an adult (ie-a capitalist).

Suckers Rally

Today's term is "suckers rally."

Can you say that kids? "Suckers rally."

Japan, the path the US has paralleled on a nearly 100% genetically identical manner, had several of them after their big bubble went poof. And in the end is still down 75% from its high nearly 20 years ago. If we followed the Japanese Nikkei, the Dow Jones would be roughly 3,500 by 2030.



Can you say, "I'm working past 65?"

I knew you could.

Footloose

When I was a whopping 9 years old my siblings and I got to see "Footloose" in 1984 which given the make out scene was about the closest to a rated X movie we had ever seen.

Didn't pay much attention to the plot. Knew there was some kid who could dance and was a good fighter. Then there was some guy with a truck and some antlers. Totally grossed out by the french kissing. And there was this angry pastor who I was later to find out was John Lithgow.

Now fast forward 20 odd years and all of the sudden I'm starting to appreciate the political statement of Footloose, not because of being a pastor's kid and being banned from dancing in the Wisconsin synod, not because of going to parochial school where they guarantee to make your kid hate religion, and not because of the nightmares I endured of dating a just a mere handful of born again Christians, but because today

2009

I at the age of 34

have lost not one,

but three private dance gigs this spring alone because.....(are you ready for this?)

THE ELDERS OF THE CHURCH WHERE THE WEDDINGS WERE TO BE HELD VOTED AGAINST HAVING A BALLROOM DANCE IN THE CHURCH.

Now I am not an expert on love or marriage. I am not an expert on weddings nor receptions. But from what I can tell since when the f%ck has the wedding been about people other than the bride and groom? And if the bride and groom would like to have something as sinful as BALLROOM-FREAKING-DANCING could the god damned (pun intended) church be so kind as to accommodate them on this simple and innocent request?

No, apparently not, apparently it is 1984 in more ways than one.

Now I'm going to say it again, as I've said before, if religions around the world would like to bolster their enrollment (particularly Christian ones) and not drive people away then maybe they ought to loosen up and ditch their outmoded, obsolete and outright insane and pointless rules.

I'm by no means telling them to ditch the fire and brimstone or the morality and laws, but the sects or strains of Christianity where they criminalize and villainize sex and attraction to the opposite sex to guilt trip and control the masses are going to do nothing but hasten their demise. Sex is meant only for procreation (dated one gal that believed that)?

Kissing should only occur after engagement (dated another gal that believed that)?

Dressing sexy for her husband would be considered immoral (guilty again in dating a girl that believed that)?

Are you freaking kidding me?

And now, ballroom dancing is a sin and should be banned.

It's kind of like watching the stock market crash as Obama implements (or even mentions) his socialist fiscal policies. The people wondering why the market is crashing and the economy tanking are just as clueless as the heads of the churches watching their enrollments drop and congregations shrink.

Books Sales of Atlas Shrugged

Via The Economist, ironic they endorsed Obama.

I'm a Loser Baby, So Why Don't You Kill Me?

How Much Debt is Enough Debt

The parallels between the US and Japan circa 1990 are unbelievable.


Hello 200% gov't debt to GDP.

Has Anybody Ever Get a Good Review?

Just a curiosity, but has anybody ever gotten a good review? I ask because as the recession takes hold, I am curious whether companies are going to be intellectually honest and say, "You know, Joe, you've done great, but we just can't afford a raise this year because of the recession."

Or are we going to get the same ole same old;

"Gee Joe, we know you raised revenues by 40%, cut costs by 20%, single handedly solved our pension crisis, but you have some personal managerial issues where people are uncomfortable with your presence. Amy, in accounting, for example said when you wore a blue tie, it was a little loud and she was intimidated by it. Therefore, we're giving you a 2 out of 5 and you'll have to submit your "improvement plan" for the year to see how you are going to help contribute more to the corporation."

Just wondering.