It appears that the biggest recessions were preceded by sharp decline in housing starts combined with: 1) Higher Taxes 2) Higher Gas cost (inflation)
What is your prediction on gasoline? Supply is high, demand is low - yet the pricing is going up??? Is this a commodity bubble? People investing in oil to protect themselves from the falling dollar?? If so - what will trigger it's bubble burst?
I'm predicting one of two things. The American economy will get insanely lucky as it did before and this will be a weak recession(though people will bitch and whine as if it were the Great Depression again because they can't afford a new SUV).
OR
It will be the next great depression as the Baby Boomers retire and we jack up taxes to pay for medicare and ss. Revolt occurs, leftists take over because the population is ignorant when it comes to economics, and we wander in the desert for 40 years.
Randian,
No, it's not sarcasm. If you look at when housing bottoms out, unemployment tends to peak 6-18 months later. It's hard to discern the trend because of the length of the chart, but if you look at the peaks and troughs you'll see it.
I expect your first prediction to be true, because the second one seems a little bit absurd to me. How could they wander in the desert when it is reoccupied by capitalist Mexico by then.
Nice chart, however I dont't think such simple result can be "sucked" of it. Anyway, I believe US recession (if there will be one, because everybody is speaking about it for half a year, but it's still not here...) will be very mild (I like "though people will bitch ... because they can't afford a new SUV", it's definitely true!) It may seem I have no right to talk as West Toronto realtor, because we have no big problems here, but I think whole world is scared of US economy development :)
"I expect your first prediction to be true, because the second one seems a little bit absurd to me. How could they wander in the desert when it is reoccupied by capitalist Mexico by then."
It appears that the biggest recessions were preceded by sharp decline in housing starts combined with:
ReplyDelete1) Higher Taxes
2) Higher Gas cost (inflation)
What is your prediction on gasoline? Supply is high, demand is low - yet the pricing is going up??? Is this a commodity bubble? People investing in oil to protect themselves from the falling dollar?? If so - what will trigger it's bubble burst?
I don't see a lot of correlation there. I assume this post is sarcastic.
ReplyDeleteAnon,
ReplyDeleteI'm predicting one of two things. The American economy will get insanely lucky as it did before and this will be a weak recession(though people will bitch and whine as if it were the Great Depression again because they can't afford a new SUV).
OR
It will be the next great depression as the Baby Boomers retire and we jack up taxes to pay for medicare and ss. Revolt occurs, leftists take over because the population is ignorant when it comes to economics, and we wander in the desert for 40 years.
Randian,
No, it's not sarcasm. If you look at when housing bottoms out, unemployment tends to peak 6-18 months later. It's hard to discern the trend because of the length of the chart, but if you look at the peaks and troughs you'll see it.
Captain,
ReplyDeleteI expect your first prediction to be true, because the second one seems a little bit absurd to me. How could they wander in the desert when it is reoccupied by capitalist Mexico by then.
Nice chart, however I dont't think such simple result can be "sucked" of it. Anyway, I believe US recession (if there will be one, because everybody is speaking about it for half a year, but it's still not here...) will be very mild (I like "though people will bitch ... because they can't afford a new SUV", it's definitely true!) It may seem I have no right to talk as
ReplyDeleteWest Toronto realtor, because we have no big problems here, but I think whole world is scared of US economy development :)
"I expect your first prediction to be true, because the second one seems a little bit absurd to me. How could they wander in the desert when it is reoccupied by capitalist Mexico by then."
ReplyDeleteWe'll sneak across the border. :)