Thursday, October 29, 2009

"Real Real" Gross Domestic Product

Because of all the federal stimulus money, Real Gross Domestic Product is no longer quite a reliable measure as to how much the economy is growing. Sure we adjust for inflation to get RGDP, but do we adjust for temporary stimulus spending from the government? Here's a break down of RGDP growth by category.


Notice the government alone accounted for .5% of that economic growth, but if you factor in cash for clunkers, home purchasing credits, not to mention ditch-digging-then-filling projects like this, RRGDP is more like 1.8%. Recovery? Yes. Booming? No. Enough growth to create jobs for the increasing population? Certainly not.

Alas, leave it to the bubble-addicted markets to drive stock prices up by 150 points on the DJIA on the nominal 3.5% growth rate and not the RRGDP.

6 comments:

  1. Anonymous12:37 PM

    So Obama did not save the economy yet?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Cappy, watch out. Someone's going to claim this is racism.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Oh hell, what isn't racism nowadays?

    I'm a white male and unrepetant. Just breathing is an act of racism for me.

    But be sure not to tell any of my latin, black, east or native indian friends.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Anonymous2:36 PM

    deal

    ReplyDelete
  5. PeppermintPanda6:56 AM

    Correct me if I'm wrong here ...

    The US GDP is roughly $12 Trillion, which would put a quarterly 3.2% increase at (roughly) $100 Billion dollars. At the same time government spending increased by (roughly) $600 Billion in 2009, or by $125 Billion on a quarterly rate; and possibly higher in Q3 because of the timing of a lot of government stimulus. When you combine the two together what you get is that the private sector has to have shrunk by $25 Billion in Q3; and this is at a time where interest rates are kept at record lows to try to encourage growth in the economy.

    Why on earth would anyone see this as good news for the stock market?

    Consumer confidence remains (really) low, unemployment remains high, and credit is difficult to gain access to. Who wants to bet that we will see shrinking GDP in Q4?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hey Cappy,

    Thought this may be of some interest to you.

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/10/28/obama-powerful-writer-julius-caesar-says-nea-chief/?test=latestnews&test=healthcommentscomments

    Obama 'Most Powerful Writer Since Julius Caesar,' Says NEA Chief

    Utterly disgusting. That's all I can say.

    ReplyDelete