This is going to be short and sweet on account, I'm semi-drunk and I'm on vacation.
When one looks at stocks as a potential investment they face a paradox -
The only means by which to analyze the stock as an investment is the past. History. The financial statements and balance sheets in the past. It is the only source of real data we have in that in order for data to exist, it must have already occurred.
HOWEVER, it is the FUTURE that actually determines it's current day value (or rather, people's perception of the future that drives the stock price today). Therefore as the market is pelted with various data about the state of the economy and earnings releases of the company, the stock price moves second to second as data triggers trades and pushes the price up or down.
Now, this is nothing new to finance professionals and basically people who have their heads out of their asses when it comes to the basic functions of the market. HOwever, this simple aspect of how a liquid market functions is completely LOST on Obama and his Ivy League losers who now head up fiscal policy. For right now they are running scared this pathetic, loser Keynesian stimulus is failing and have no way to explain it's utter catastrophic failure.
So let a humble Big Ten-er who actually paid his way through college lesson you Ivy League, spoiled brat trust fund baby schmucks in how the real world works.
The country is no different than a share of stock, a piece of property or any other type of asset.
IT'S VALUE IS DERIVED FROM THE FUTURE CASH FLOWS IT WILL GENERATE OVER IT'S LIFE TIME (not to mention the people's expectations of that future).
Now while you morons have your heads so far up Keynes' corpse's ass, you fail to realize that you can spend all Keynesian stimulus money up front now in the hope it triggers some magical Disney Obama Unicorn recovery, but if you spend so much that you sacrifice the future by basically bankrupting or calling into question the entire solvency of the nation you undermine and destroy those future cash flows that are to presumably deliver value to assets today.
Ergo, while you indebt future generations to the tune of 110% GDP, that's all good and dandy you spent the proceeds for the debt issuance on repaving roads that didn't need repaving, but you scared people from buying any kind of consumer or luxury good because they fear they're going to have to pay back that debt.
Ergo, while in your infinite Ivy League school wisdom, you've essentially made 50% tax rates a guarantee due to promises in nationalized health care, social security, medicare and other impossible-to-pay-for entitlement programs that you've scared people away from investing in anything but gold.
And of course, ergo, since you're too cowardly to cut government spending, limit government employee union pensions and in general live within your means, you've all but destroyed anybody's true hope and faith in a private sector future, which, OOPS, happens to not only drive the real economy by which the government relies upon through taxing, but also drives;
stock prices
asset prices
mutual fund prices
401k balances
IRA balances
403b balances
pension balances
oh!
And guess what!
investment
job creation
and general FREAKING economic growth
It is this simple destruction of a future, the simple elimination of any REAL hope the working population of this country had that explains why your Keynesian stimulus is impotent just like the degenerate academian losers such as Krugman and Romer. You Keynesians are simply destroying the future by bankrupting it to pay for magic-mumbo-jumbo farcical economic magic today that will never work.
It only behooves the question whether you freaking Ivy League schmoes were really that stupid or were sinister enough the entire time to know what you were doing purposely tanking the economy.
I fear it is a combination of both that only such incompetent morons as you could pull it off despite the seemingly mutually exclusive nature of the two options.
hey
ReplyDeletegreat post, but you totally miss the point, i am afraid. politicians are neither stupid nor sinister, they are just... politicians. you should talk to some of them, is an illumionating experience. all they talk about is votes, so they do all they think is necessary to get them. same way your former bosses were only worried about their commission or bonus and who cares about the bank or the economy going down, they only think in terms of next election and votes, and if to buy one vote they have to sell their mothers, so what.
as tytler and many others correctly observed, in democracy this is an inevitable trend, with very few exceptions, so do you really think O is worried about the economy going to hell? nah, thats way beyond the next election and in the case, someone else will have to eventually deal with it. and anyway the ruling classes are not bothered with problems like making ends meet, paying the bills, or even the taxes. O only wants to win the next election, whatever it means and whatever the means, and if this requires growing the debt to 200% of GDP and taxes to 60%, he will do it. unfortunately, when in a country over half of the population relies on government for their living, a transformation occurs, the disappearance of the "conservative" parties. in europe conservativism is a thing of a remote past, and libertarianism has long been ejected from history. all you are left (ha ha left, get it? ) with is several socialist parties, competing with each other for the votes, and using tax money or borrowed money to buy them. if you want to see US of A in 10 or 20 years time, look at europe.
my personal prediction is that there might be a world scale civil war between those who work, produce and pay the taxes and state parasites and privileged, but it will have to get really ugly to start it, so ugly that even corporations might find convenient to finance and support such civil war. only way to avoid this and restore some sense in this absurd system is a revolution.
so if i was in you, i would start stocking up pitchforks, possibly of the type that goes bang.
The stimulus was based on the belief that you could take a bucket of water from the deep end of the pool, and pour it into the shallow end of the same pool with the result of the shallow end getting deeper.
ReplyDeletePerhaps Bash is right, a revolution may be in order. Hopefully without the killing and destruction, but somehow, I do not think the population will listen without the noise.
Your post tells it like it is or will be, which validates my stock pile of whiskey and wine. As I watch my great-grandchildren join the ranks of mindless sheep, and ignore our warnings, I'll stay sauced. Learning History is like asking them to clean the toilet...it's yucky work.
ReplyDeleteand forgot to mention. the stimulus was never about fixing the economy. the stimulus was about shifting votes. all governments do is functional to this simple task: shift votes.
ReplyDeleteSchumpeter said it long time ago. politicians are all dishonest scumbags. you should vote the guy who, by promoting his own personal agenda, will in the process promote yours.