Another curious observation I had about bitcoin.
It's meteoric rise recently has made every MSM outlet an expert and alarm sounder about bitcoin, it's risks, and how bubbly it is. But then it dawned on me...
Wasn't it these same people that couldn't see the housing bubble right in front of their faces in 2007?
Weren't these the same guys that would laud the latest Dotcom IPO, measuring its value in terms of Price to SALES because there were no earnings or profits in 1999?
Isn't is the same people who painfully, tooth-pullingly, are sheepishly admitting in 2017 that there MAY just be an education bubble?
You have the New York Times, Fast Company, even TIME for god's sake, nearly every tapioca pudding, dying MSM rag warning about bitcoin...
but these guys couldn't tell you when there WAS an actual bubble the past three times when these bubbles were slapping their dicks in these journalists' faces.
This makes me wonder, since their ability to predict and identify bubbles is so bad, wouldn't this actually be a GOOD sign for Bitcoin? A vote for the camp that bitcoin is NOT a bubble?
The reason I bring this up is because journalists and journalism majors are horrible economists. They're bandwagoners. They're not capable of genuine thought and haven't been since the damn 60's. This doesn't mean that I don't think bitcoin is in a bubble (I frankly have no clue what the price should be), but I do know your average journalist banging out these dire warning articles about bitcoin doesn't understand how block chain technology can revolutionize the world's financial system, doesn't understand the economics behind currencies, and sure the hell can't grasp the concept of a digital ledger system.
So why (aside from a classical exponential price) do you think it's a bubble?
Truth is I own some bitcoin, but it's more like a lottery card for me. A bit of fun to see where this technology might go and someday I can tell my grandnieces when "ole Uncle Clarey owned bitcoin." But if it's the industry wide consensus amongst journalists that Bitcoin is overvalued, I can hardly think of a better endorsement that it isn't.
Hey Cap, can you give a brief tutorial about how you invested in Bitcoin in case some of your shipmates want to dabble? There seem to be so many ways, so just wondering how you dove in?
ReplyDeleteExcellent points. Take ANYTHING that these 'fake news' outlets say, with a HUGE 'grain of salt'...
ReplyDeleteI was at a Subway for lunch last week and the two pimple faced high school students behind me in line were talking about investing in bitcon. Now, if teenagers are talking about getting rich... then it is a bubble. I seem to recall reading a history book about tulips.
ReplyDeleteThe Media have merely been told what the corrupt governments of the West are about to do to Bitcoin, through their CIA and NSA and MI5 and MI6 and BND and the rest of that corrupt sewage. Or do you not think that those entities have the resources to corrupt an online digital system?
ReplyDeleteWomen: say one thing, mean another, and do yet another.
ReplyDeleteMainstream media: state one thing, mean another, and do yet another.
Bitcoin is either virtual currency or reference to the technology. You can make transactions by check, wiring, or cash. You can also use Bitcoin (or BTC), where you refer the purchaser to your signature, which is a long line of security code encrypted with 16 distinct symbols.
ReplyDeleteneo web wallet
"Wasn't it these same people that couldn't see the housing bubble right in front of their faces in 2007?
ReplyDeleteWeren't these the same guys that would laud the latest Dotcom IPO, measuring its value in terms of Price to SALES because there were no earnings or profits in 1999?"
Ray Dalio did predict and profit off of the housing bubble
"In 2007, Bridgewater predicted the global financial crisis,[15] and in 2008 Dalio published an essay, "How the Economic Machine Works; A Template for Understanding What is Happening Now",[16] which explained his model for the economic crisis."
Mark,
ReplyDeleteBitcoin was intentionally designed to be resistant to tampering. Governments can certainly make it hard to convert between bitcoin and fiat, or to sell products in bitcoin, but they can't really destroy bitcoin itself short of shutting down the internet entirely. That's the whole point of it.
Ethereum, on the other hand, is extremely vulnerable to coercion. I'd stay away from any altcoins that aren't just a slight modification of bitcoin. Litecoin and dogecoin would be fine. Iota and ethereum, no thanks. More or less, "proof of work" = good, "proof of stake" = bad. For the next few years at least.
"Wasn't it these same people that couldn't see the housing bubble right in front of their faces in 2007?"
ReplyDeleteI believe many of them saw it coming but looked the other way and said nothing because they were doing so well. They were blinded by their profits.
Now it's bitcoiners's turn to behave the same way.
Ironically, Tether might be printing tokens not backed by dollars which enables to buy Bitcoin with money that doesn't even exist, inflating the price in the process.
The government might do a lot worse than try to shut down Bitcoin.
ReplyDeleteThey might actually ADOPT it and mandate that all citizens obtain a Bitcoin addresd and turn over their Bitcoin address to the government.
They will proceed to create a national ID and profile based on the address and they will monitor your income and net worth in real time.
It will be easier for governments to seize assets like oil and resources by linking them to a Bitcoin address and then charging for it and account for inventory with it.
Bitcoin might not bring the freedom from oppression you all want, it might give governments a lot more power.
Then cash and gold will be outlawed and you will no longer be able to escape the control grid.
When the US Government starts loving Bitcoin rather than hating it, then it will be time for all of you to be worried.
Bitcoin is absolutely NOT anonymous.