Tuesday, August 28, 2007

An "Economist" Too Far

I remember the movie "A Bridge Too Far" where there was a military analyst who kept trying to warn the higher ups about intelligence he was getting about German armor being spotted in the vicinity Arnhem (it is SOOO worth clicking on the link for this is the exact same thing that has happened to every analyst, economist and researcher out there). While his commanding officer appreciated his concerns, inevitably he become too much a thorn in people's side and was relieved of his duties. I even remember the Chaplin coming up to relieve him, saying, "You're tired. You need to rest." To which he responded "Isn't there a way to stop it?"

And that was me about three years ago. I would go to management, present my research and my findings, showing them much more conclusively than a handful of pictures of German tanks that there was a housing bubble and that if they didn't pull back on the real estate development deals, they'd lose their shirts. I too was "relieved" of duty after I refused to capitulate and play ball and start producing research that they wanted to see, not that reflected the realities of the economy and housing market.

And so with today's news I watch as I see the Allies get slaughtered in Operation Market Garden, sitting there thinking "how many billions would have been saved if the banks just listened to me." Alas I don't have gray hair and therefore I'm just a dumb economist. But with housing prices dropping so quickly...


maybe next time the higher ups might start listening.

1 comment:

  1. What amuses me about the comparison here is that M-G succeeded everywhere...except for Arnhem.

    The plan itself was horribly flawed (who in their right mind charges up a single road?), but even given that everything that could have possibly gone wrong did, M-G still came agonizingly close to succeeding.

    Now, you look at the underlying basis of using real estate to back economic development, and, if you've read your American history (as some of us have *buffing knuckles*), you would know that this is a recipe for disaster no matter what's involved on the ground, Germans, French, or Italians.

    No magazine subscription required...

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