Wednesday, August 06, 2008

Chances of a Recession

I found this chart


and this article with this accomodating chart interesting.


It seems nobody wants to adhere to the definition of a recession anymore.

Again people, TWO SUCCESSIVE quarters of negative economic growth. That is what defines a recession. We can argue we're in a slow down. We can say we're not doing as good. We can say we're about to enter one (which I believe we will). But we're not FACTUALLY in a recession.

Additionally, I want to have a little review of the unemployment rate. I'm getting more and more stories from friends and associates who run into people that complain about the unemployment rate being "horrible." So here is the unemployment rate. I'd recommend printing off this chart so the next time you run into these ignorant fools you can show this to them and tell them to shut the hell up.

2 comments:

  1. of all people, you should know better... the NBER doesn't adhere to that definition, and often dates recessions well after they occur precisely because they consider far more factors than just negative GDP growth.

    http://www.nber.org/cycles.html

    more here:
    http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/05/positive-gdp-re.html

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  2. I am aware of NBER's definitions. I'm going old school and sticking with the traditional measure of a recession.

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