HAR!
Just like Jim Morrison, his music just wasn't that good. And also like Jim Morrison, you had to be high or drunk to like it. And how did both of those guys end up? Hmmm...another similarity.
Sunday, July 31, 2011
Suffering Again Enjoying the Decline
This is Harney's Peak in the background. I had hiked it earlier and then noticed some storm clouds off in the distance. Was very glad I decided to high tail it out of there as the storm engulfed the peak.
Friday, July 29, 2011
Jim Beam, Cusano Cigar and a 1940's Motel
I originally was going to take pictures, but then it dawned on me I don't want to ruin it with digital precision and am going to let you imagine it.
I am currently sitting outside in my fold-out chair at my dirt cheap motel in a very small town nestled within the Black Hills of South Dakota. A place none of you will find. It's 78 degrees, about 2130 and the red neon lights just came on casting a very nice hue over the dilapidated trucks in the parking lot. The old man who runs the joint just came out and lit up a cigarette himself.
I am currently puffing on an M1 Cusano Torpedo Cut cigar with a flask of Jim Beam. I have no cell phone reception. Nobody can get in contact with me. I no longer suffer from the jilt or jolt of my cell phone vibrating or ringing, thereby making it my master of a Pavlovian dog-like response to some request or another. My only concerns for tomorrow is to determine which mountain I'm going to climb OR, if it's particularly hot which swimming hole I shall visit OR if it's particularly cool, which portion of the Badlands I shall hike straight through.
Additionally I have not listened to talk radio for about the past 3 weeks and am blissfully unaware of the debt and deficit problems I have tacitly paid attention to when I do decide to visit the Drudge Report. Though I have noticed on my sidebar plug-ins my dollar-short positions against the NOrwegian Kroner and the Canadian dollar are doing quite well - thank you Barry.
I did download some Tom Leykis so I could listen to something while I was driving my motorcycle around the Black Hills today, but otherwise right now I hear nothing but crickets and the occasional motorcycle or car driving by on the only paved road in town. I think I will drink myself my flask of Jim Beam and retire watching the history channel or the military channel.
If there is a way to enjoy the decline. This is it. Not trying, not working, and living as cheaply as possible on the minimum amount of labor you forfeited to the labor market/government-taxing machine. In the meantime I authorize all junior, deputy, aspiring, official or otherwise economists to pour themselves a hefty pour of whatever they got and make a long-range toast (wherever you may be in the Capposphere).
Enjoy the decline!
I am currently sitting outside in my fold-out chair at my dirt cheap motel in a very small town nestled within the Black Hills of South Dakota. A place none of you will find. It's 78 degrees, about 2130 and the red neon lights just came on casting a very nice hue over the dilapidated trucks in the parking lot. The old man who runs the joint just came out and lit up a cigarette himself.
I am currently puffing on an M1 Cusano Torpedo Cut cigar with a flask of Jim Beam. I have no cell phone reception. Nobody can get in contact with me. I no longer suffer from the jilt or jolt of my cell phone vibrating or ringing, thereby making it my master of a Pavlovian dog-like response to some request or another. My only concerns for tomorrow is to determine which mountain I'm going to climb OR, if it's particularly hot which swimming hole I shall visit OR if it's particularly cool, which portion of the Badlands I shall hike straight through.
Additionally I have not listened to talk radio for about the past 3 weeks and am blissfully unaware of the debt and deficit problems I have tacitly paid attention to when I do decide to visit the Drudge Report. Though I have noticed on my sidebar plug-ins my dollar-short positions against the NOrwegian Kroner and the Canadian dollar are doing quite well - thank you Barry.
I did download some Tom Leykis so I could listen to something while I was driving my motorcycle around the Black Hills today, but otherwise right now I hear nothing but crickets and the occasional motorcycle or car driving by on the only paved road in town. I think I will drink myself my flask of Jim Beam and retire watching the history channel or the military channel.
If there is a way to enjoy the decline. This is it. Not trying, not working, and living as cheaply as possible on the minimum amount of labor you forfeited to the labor market/government-taxing machine. In the meantime I authorize all junior, deputy, aspiring, official or otherwise economists to pour themselves a hefty pour of whatever they got and make a long-range toast (wherever you may be in the Capposphere).
Enjoy the decline!
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Hippies Don't Help Economic Growth
I was at the post office the other day. In front of me was a younger-looking grandmother sending off what seemed to be a book and a National Geographic issue. It was a small post office, but it wouldn't have mattered because this woman was quite insistent on speaking loud enough for everybody to hear.
"I'm an economist, I follow the Correa administration."
And with that exchange, that's all I needed. I found the country she and the other hippies were at in 1964. So off the Captain went to the Cappy Cap Cave, fired up his ole Cappy Cap Computer and went to work looking up Ecuador's economic history.
And in a few short minutes of superawesome economic research, I found the presence of hippies do not help economic growth. Of course most people know that, I just wanted to confirm that it wasn't by some miracle they actually did make a difference this time.
Ever since then Ecuador's economic performance can largely be explained by oil. When oil prices tanked in the late 80's, so too did its economy. And even with a largely leftist president implementing largely leftist policies, the economy is still booming today because of the price of EEEEEVILLLLL oil.
This behooves the question then;
"Why do we keep sending hippies overseas if they don't achieve anything?"
Oh, what innocently foolish questions.
You see young, aspiring, junior, deputy and otherwise economists, Peace Corp, Ameri-Corp, UN, UNICEF, IMF and whatever other aid/humanitarian types out there do not go to these countries to help these poor countries out. They go there simply for themselves. If you look at the statistics globalization and economics is what gets countries out of poverty just as oil got Ecuador out of absolute poverty. Not this lady and her ilk helping build a well in some remote village of the Ooki Booki tribe. They go there, first and foremost, so they can feel good about themselves. Whether they actually bring about tangible results is inconsequential, because deep down inside they really don't care.
Would YOU as a grandparent send your GRANDCHILDREN a book you wrote, let alone articles about YOU and on topics they could not care less about? It tells you all you need to know about the woman's psychology.
Grandchildren - "GRANDPA CAPPY! GRANDPA CAPPY!"
And of course, that's the point. This woman, just as she did back in 1964, is doing the same thing today. She's sending these poor grandkids a boring book not for their sake, but for herself.
"The fact that the "house" in figure 2 still looks like garbage 7 years later just goes to show that sociology majors just like in the first world can't fix anything in the third world either."
"Yes, I'm sending these to my grandchildren! That's me on the front of the National Geographic when I was in South America! I'm also in this book! It's the first book written by and about the Peace Corps."
Naturally my eyes rolled. Not because in front of me was an aged hippie who can only point to something she did 50 years ago as the pinnacle of the acheivements in her life, but because who else but Peace Corps hippies would think their grandchildren want a lame book written by hippies and a dated National Geographic from 1964?
Of course I couldn't pass this up, so I inquired,
"Where were you in the Peace Corps?"
"Ecuador. Have you been there?"
"No, no, haven't been there."
"Well how do you know about it?" (which I found to be a funny question because it's not like you had to have been to Ecuador to know it exists)
"I'm an economist, I follow the Correa administration."
And with that exchange, that's all I needed. I found the country she and the other hippies were at in 1964. So off the Captain went to the Cappy Cap Cave, fired up his ole Cappy Cap Computer and went to work looking up Ecuador's economic history.
And in a few short minutes of superawesome economic research, I found the presence of hippies do not help economic growth. Of course most people know that, I just wanted to confirm that it wasn't by some miracle they actually did make a difference this time.
Notice when hippies were introduced to the Ecuadorian environment, nothing happened for about a solid decade thereafter. It wasn't until EEEEVIIIILLLLLL oil was discovered in 1973/1974 did its economy actually start growing.
Ever since then Ecuador's economic performance can largely be explained by oil. When oil prices tanked in the late 80's, so too did its economy. And even with a largely leftist president implementing largely leftist policies, the economy is still booming today because of the price of EEEEEVILLLLL oil.
This behooves the question then;
"What the heck did the hippies go for there in the first place?"
And another follow up question;
"Why do we keep sending hippies overseas if they don't achieve anything?"
Oh, what innocently foolish questions.
You see young, aspiring, junior, deputy and otherwise economists, Peace Corp, Ameri-Corp, UN, UNICEF, IMF and whatever other aid/humanitarian types out there do not go to these countries to help these poor countries out. They go there simply for themselves. If you look at the statistics globalization and economics is what gets countries out of poverty just as oil got Ecuador out of absolute poverty. Not this lady and her ilk helping build a well in some remote village of the Ooki Booki tribe. They go there, first and foremost, so they can feel good about themselves. Whether they actually bring about tangible results is inconsequential, because deep down inside they really don't care.
Now, while you may think I'm being harsh, especially for criticizing an old woman for sending her grandchildren a book she helped write and a magazine with her and her hippie friends, think about that.
Would YOU as a grandparent send your GRANDCHILDREN a book you wrote, let alone articles about YOU and on topics they could not care less about? It tells you all you need to know about the woman's psychology.
Can you imagine what a fun Christmas that would be at the Captain's household?
Grandchildren - "GRANDPA CAPPY! GRANDPA CAPPY!"
Old Cappy Cap - "Well hello grandchildren!"
Grandchildren - "What did you get us for Christmas!?"
Old Cappy Cap - "Well, I brought you a copy of my book, Behind the Housing Crash and an article written about me from 2007!"
Grandchildren - "Awww poop. That's not a real present."
Old Cappy Cap - "Shut up, you ungrateful brats! You will read it and like it! Where's the Rumpleminze?"
And of course, that's the point. This woman, just as she did back in 1964, is doing the same thing today. She's sending these poor grandkids a boring book not for their sake, but for herself.
But perhaps I could explain a little better with a quote from a previous post.
"The fact that the "house" in figure 2 still looks like garbage 7 years later just goes to show that sociology majors just like in the first world can't fix anything in the third world either."
I say just never grant a hippie with enough credit or skill to actually fix anything.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
The True Damage of Crusaders
Here's a perfect example;
The audio is poor, so here is the quote;
“Nearly every day without fail…men stream to these [mining] operations looking for work in Walker County. They can’t pay their mortgage. They can’t pay their car note. They can’t feed their families. They don’t have health insurance. And as I stand here today, I just…you know…what’s the use? I got a permit to open up an underground coal mine that would employ probably 125 people. They’d be paid wages from $50,000 to $150,000 a year. We would consume probably $50 million to $60 million in consumables a year, putting more men to work. And my only idea today is to go home. What’s the use? I see these guys—I see them with tears in their eyes—looking for work. And if there’s so much opposition to these guys making a living, I feel like there’s no need in me putting out the effort to provide work for them. So…basically what I’ve decided is not to open the mine. I’m just quitting. Thank you.”
Remember, it's more important that the crusader at the Sierra Club or the soccer mom who is bored and wants to launch a safety campaign against pollution or the college kid protester who needs to protest something, it's more important THEY feel good about themselves than that the rest of us have jobs, careers, and a future.
The audio is poor, so here is the quote;
“Nearly every day without fail…men stream to these [mining] operations looking for work in Walker County. They can’t pay their mortgage. They can’t pay their car note. They can’t feed their families. They don’t have health insurance. And as I stand here today, I just…you know…what’s the use? I got a permit to open up an underground coal mine that would employ probably 125 people. They’d be paid wages from $50,000 to $150,000 a year. We would consume probably $50 million to $60 million in consumables a year, putting more men to work. And my only idea today is to go home. What’s the use? I see these guys—I see them with tears in their eyes—looking for work. And if there’s so much opposition to these guys making a living, I feel like there’s no need in me putting out the effort to provide work for them. So…basically what I’ve decided is not to open the mine. I’m just quitting. Thank you.”
Remember, it's more important that the crusader at the Sierra Club or the soccer mom who is bored and wants to launch a safety campaign against pollution or the college kid protester who needs to protest something, it's more important THEY feel good about themselves than that the rest of us have jobs, careers, and a future.
Monday, July 25, 2011
$1.18 Trillion of Worthless Paper
Because what? A generation of Justin Beiber sociology majors is going to produce the wealth required to pay these guys back?
I'm just glad the debt crisis is finally starting to pay nice dividends on my foreign currency plays. Though I do feel sorry for the Chinese for investing so heavily into US assets.
How does one say, "Enjoy the Decline?" in Cantonese?
I'm just glad the debt crisis is finally starting to pay nice dividends on my foreign currency plays. Though I do feel sorry for the Chinese for investing so heavily into US assets.
How does one say, "Enjoy the Decline?" in Cantonese?
As Mayor of Scenic, South Dakota, I Promise
No property taxes. Only, one sole sales tax on every transaction within the city limits
People will be allowed to smoke in private establishments if that private establishment allows it.
All forms of commerce, both admirable and shameful would be allowed.
People will be allowed to carry any gun, any time, anywhere, knowing full well if they try any nazi-jerk Norwegian schtick that moron carried out, people will be shooting back.
Whiskey is served 24-7, bars and commercial ventures are allowed to do what they want, when they want, and frankly it's none of the local government's business what yours is.
I'd make a GREAT mayor of Scenic, SD.
People will be allowed to smoke in private establishments if that private establishment allows it.
All forms of commerce, both admirable and shameful would be allowed.
People will be allowed to carry any gun, any time, anywhere, knowing full well if they try any nazi-jerk Norwegian schtick that moron carried out, people will be shooting back.
Whiskey is served 24-7, bars and commercial ventures are allowed to do what they want, when they want, and frankly it's none of the local government's business what yours is.
I'd make a GREAT mayor of Scenic, SD.
Sunday, July 24, 2011
Do As I Say, Not As I Do
It's all good and fun and games telling other people what to do, until you have to deal with the ideology you espouse.
Regulatory Costs to Housing
Reminds me of how there is a progressively larger and larger group of contractors that will NOT do business in Minneapolis because of the over-burdensome regulation and fees. I'd be curious to see how much these costs vary based on the municipality they're in.
Saturday, July 23, 2011
And Yet Somehow...
the world continues to rotate.
What irks me is how this took the top spot on Drudge in light of the tragedy in Norway.
What irks me is how this took the top spot on Drudge in light of the tragedy in Norway.
Purposely Log-Jamming the Economy
Along the same lines of my previous post about whether it was ignorance or evil on the part of the democrats to destroy the country, another report from "Ebo" (evil big oil!)
"Compared to historical trends, pending exploration plans are up by nearly 90%, approvals are down by 85% ,and the approval process has slowed from an average of 36 to 131 days."
But hey, at least we stuck it to Big Oil! Right!? And that's what our 9th grade school teacher told us was important. Fighting the system and sticking it to the man.
Enjoy the decline
"Compared to historical trends, pending exploration plans are up by nearly 90%, approvals are down by 85% ,and the approval process has slowed from an average of 36 to 131 days."
But hey, at least we stuck it to Big Oil! Right!? And that's what our 9th grade school teacher told us was important. Fighting the system and sticking it to the man.
Enjoy the decline
Friday, July 22, 2011
"Don't Ever Hit Your Mother With a Shovel"
On a Butch Cassidy and Sundance related note;
For those of you interested, I was intending to visit the actual Hole in the Wall where Butch Cassidy and the Hole in the Wall Gang hung out. Just requires a 4x4 vehicle. Which is not at my disposal right now.
For those of you interested, I was intending to visit the actual Hole in the Wall where Butch Cassidy and the Hole in the Wall Gang hung out. Just requires a 4x4 vehicle. Which is not at my disposal right now.
"Those Stupid Red Neck Hicks"
Nowhere near as intelligent or enlightened as us coastal and metropolitan folk!
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Captain Capitalism's Great Hippie Hole Adventure
The Hippie Hole is a swimming hole in arguably the most remote region of the Black Hills. I ran out of time last year to find it and decided today that with a bum right leg I should manage to find it and do a little swimming.
According to teh interwebz I could just "drive right up to the parking area" and in a "short 15 minute hike" manage to get there.
They didn't tell me that the dirt road you have to travel is nearly impossible for compact cars, let alone normal ones. And they didn't tell me that the "short 15 minute hike" is more or less scaling a cliff down at about a 70 degree angle. Despite my right leg being shot, I was able to hike the 2 miles into the parking lot and hobble my way down the cliff and find the Hippie Hole
It's a really neat and REMOTE place. More or less a natural damn fed by a 30 foot waterfall. You can climb up a little higher and take about a 40 foot dive, but nothing like the 100 foot cliff jumping you can do in St. Croix, WI. If it weren't for all the poison Ivy I'd consider camping there. Below are a couple pictures and a video.
And on a related note; "Hell, the fall alone will probably kill ya!"
According to teh interwebz I could just "drive right up to the parking area" and in a "short 15 minute hike" manage to get there.
They didn't tell me that the dirt road you have to travel is nearly impossible for compact cars, let alone normal ones. And they didn't tell me that the "short 15 minute hike" is more or less scaling a cliff down at about a 70 degree angle. Despite my right leg being shot, I was able to hike the 2 miles into the parking lot and hobble my way down the cliff and find the Hippie Hole
It's a really neat and REMOTE place. More or less a natural damn fed by a 30 foot waterfall. You can climb up a little higher and take about a 40 foot dive, but nothing like the 100 foot cliff jumping you can do in St. Croix, WI. If it weren't for all the poison Ivy I'd consider camping there. Below are a couple pictures and a video.
And on a related note; "Hell, the fall alone will probably kill ya!"
How Could This Happen in Norway?
Hey, liberals, one of you explain to me how this could happen in the most placating, pacifist, socialist utopia you all claim to be the pinnacle of socio-economics?
This is what happens when you no longer let men be men, try to feminize them and make them women, punish and criminalize male behavior, betray your own men for the pursuit of feminism and lofty marxist and pacifist goals and replacing men with the state, and then try to placate your enemies by embracing diversity at all costs
Oh, and on a side note, HOW COULD THERE BE SHOOTINGS IN NORWAY? Guns are banned!
Obviously a mistake the media made. Must have been a clubbing or a spearing. Because you know, guns are outlawed in Norway.
Enjoy the Norwegian decline!
POST POST - As, despite claims of various Islamic groups to take responsibility for this attack which prompted me to this post, evidence is showing it is a crazed-nut-job Norwegian national who is to blame for these attacks. I offer a full rescindication of this post and will leave this post up as intellectual honesty and evidence I am wrong every once in a while. Let me know when my leftist counterparts offer something similar or if the main stream media does such a thing.
See how simple that was MSM? You see, when you're wrong, you ADMIT IT. Unlike this.
This is what happens when you no longer let men be men, try to feminize them and make them women, punish and criminalize male behavior, betray your own men for the pursuit of feminism and lofty marxist and pacifist goals and replacing men with the state, and then try to placate your enemies by embracing diversity at all costs
Oh, and on a side note, HOW COULD THERE BE SHOOTINGS IN NORWAY? Guns are banned!
Obviously a mistake the media made. Must have been a clubbing or a spearing. Because you know, guns are outlawed in Norway.
Enjoy the Norwegian decline!
POST POST - As, despite claims of various Islamic groups to take responsibility for this attack which prompted me to this post, evidence is showing it is a crazed-nut-job Norwegian national who is to blame for these attacks. I offer a full rescindication of this post and will leave this post up as intellectual honesty and evidence I am wrong every once in a while. Let me know when my leftist counterparts offer something similar or if the main stream media does such a thing.
See how simple that was MSM? You see, when you're wrong, you ADMIT IT. Unlike this.
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
The Captain's Crusade for Snakeskin Boots
OK, Cappy Cappites. I need your help.
Here's the story.
As you know my exploits and adventures have me coming into contacts with rattlesnakes on a regular basis. They are actually cowardly creatures and unless provoked will scurry away from you, rarely biting you.
However, it dawned on me how cool would it be to own a pair of rattlesnake boots? And not just a pair of snakeskin boots, but made from snakes I actually captured myself.
So the ole Captain goes out on teh interwebz and searches for snake skin boot manufacturers. He can only find retailers. He goes to a local skin/hide store in Custer, SD and asks the guy there WITH SNAKE SKINS AND RATTLESNAKE BELTS and even he doesn't know where to send me. I call taxidermists, shoe repair people, all the way from Wisconsin to Wyoming.
Nothing.
It's like NOBODY makes snakeskin boots, even the retailers don't know who ultimately manufactures them.
DOES ANYBODY OUT THERE KNOW A TAXIDERMIST OR A BOOT MAKER OR A SHOE REPAIR GUY WILLING TO ACCEPT PAYMENT TO TAKE SNAKE HIDES AND MAKE THEM INTO BOOTS?
Swear to the patron saint this would not have been a problem in the 1940's.
On an interesting side note. Not to go "Zuckerberg" on you guys or anything.
Here's the story.
As you know my exploits and adventures have me coming into contacts with rattlesnakes on a regular basis. They are actually cowardly creatures and unless provoked will scurry away from you, rarely biting you.
However, it dawned on me how cool would it be to own a pair of rattlesnake boots? And not just a pair of snakeskin boots, but made from snakes I actually captured myself.
So the ole Captain goes out on teh interwebz and searches for snake skin boot manufacturers. He can only find retailers. He goes to a local skin/hide store in Custer, SD and asks the guy there WITH SNAKE SKINS AND RATTLESNAKE BELTS and even he doesn't know where to send me. I call taxidermists, shoe repair people, all the way from Wisconsin to Wyoming.
Nothing.
It's like NOBODY makes snakeskin boots, even the retailers don't know who ultimately manufactures them.
DOES ANYBODY OUT THERE KNOW A TAXIDERMIST OR A BOOT MAKER OR A SHOE REPAIR GUY WILLING TO ACCEPT PAYMENT TO TAKE SNAKE HIDES AND MAKE THEM INTO BOOTS?
Swear to the patron saint this would not have been a problem in the 1940's.
On an interesting side note. Not to go "Zuckerberg" on you guys or anything.
We Don't Need No Stinking Jobs!
From my evil handlers in the evil Big Oil industry.
This brings up a question I'm sure many of you are asking.
Is the current administration just blissfully ignorant of economics or are they purposely doing this because they hate capitalism and America?
I'm increasingly finding myself believing option #2, fully acknowledging the "conspiracy theory" stigma that would be attached to me.
This brings up a question I'm sure many of you are asking.
Is the current administration just blissfully ignorant of economics or are they purposely doing this because they hate capitalism and America?
I'm increasingly finding myself believing option #2, fully acknowledging the "conspiracy theory" stigma that would be attached to me.
The Gap Continues to Close
Official report from the Fed. Since I'm on vacation, anybody want to read it and tell me if they mention engineering degrees and the disproportionality of this recession on male-dominated industries?
Monday, July 18, 2011
Cicero Peak
This is from the top of Cicero Peak. The temperature drop was about10-15 degrees in the short 2,000 altitude climb so it was actually pleasant up top.
In one of the photos you can see South Dakota, Wyoming, and Nebraska. Some people claim you can see North Dakota, but I highly doubt that.
I strongly recommend hiking and mountain climbing in the Black Hills simply because you can actually climb a "mountain" within a day and not have to worry about altitude sickness or freezing temperatures.
In one of the photos you can see South Dakota, Wyoming, and Nebraska. Some people claim you can see North Dakota, but I highly doubt that.
I strongly recommend hiking and mountain climbing in the Black Hills simply because you can actually climb a "mountain" within a day and not have to worry about altitude sickness or freezing temperatures.
Cicero Peak
Today I will climb Cicero Peak which is either the 2nd or 3rd highest peak in the Southern Black Hills. It's supposed to be in the 100's today, but the benefit of mountain climbing is the higher you go, the cooler it gets, thus giving you incentive to hike really fast, nay, sprint up the mountain.
Oh, sure, some people, typically of the female persuasion, will lecture you about hiking in the heat or using Rumpleminze as a disinfectant, but these concerns about "heat stroke" or "exhaustion" or "heart attacks" or "mountain lions" are largely overstated and can easily be dismissed. If for any other reason if you keep yourself adequately hydrated with Phillips Vodka before the hike you should be perfectly fine.
I shall take photos and load them up here when I get back.
In the meantime, you crazy kids enjoy the decline!
Oh, sure, some people, typically of the female persuasion, will lecture you about hiking in the heat or using Rumpleminze as a disinfectant, but these concerns about "heat stroke" or "exhaustion" or "heart attacks" or "mountain lions" are largely overstated and can easily be dismissed. If for any other reason if you keep yourself adequately hydrated with Phillips Vodka before the hike you should be perfectly fine.
I shall take photos and load them up here when I get back.
In the meantime, you crazy kids enjoy the decline!
Sunday, July 17, 2011
Non-Traditional Economic Statistics
You can read all the headline statistics you want, and if you REALLY want to be told what you want to hear, you can always listen to Barack Obama talk about job growth and the economy. But there are some eccentric or "anecdotal" statistics that are unconventional in the world of economics, but have the ability to predict the economy nonetheless.
For example to accurately gauge economic growth in China and not the dubious "official GDP" statistics the Chinese government publishes, some economists look at electrical consumption. Alan Greenspan liked to look at railroad tie replacement rates. And there are others that escape my mind. But two come to mind here in the good ole USA that I've kind of unofficially kept track of;
Dance class enrollments and Harley ridership in the Black Hills.
I have been teaching ballroom dance for the past 14 years. This includes the booming 90's, the subsequent stock market crash, the booming housing bubble and the subsequent great recession. Enrollments followed correspondingly. I had standing room only (which all dance classes are HAR!!!!) at the peak of the Dotcom bubble. The 2000 recession hit, BLAMO! Enrollments dropped about 60%. The recovered and exceeded previously levels as attendees used home equity lines to finance SUV's, trips to Europe and ballroom dance classes. The housing market collapsed and BLAMO! Enrollments dropped 90% from their highs.
Of course with the economy in full recovery according to the left, you would think enrollments would have recovered. However, a full 3 years after the housing crisis, they keep going down. Below is a guestimate chart.
Then there is the ridership in the Black Hills. Sturgis is coming up and this is the third year I've placed myself in the Black Hills for the better part of 2 months in my effort to enjoy the decline. My hotel is in a small mountain town and there are three statistics I've anecdotally noticed.
1. The number of motorcycles on the road are about 1/2 of what they were last year around this time. I noticed this because I can actually drive the speed limit and not be burdened by some slow driving Harley noob who carted his motorcycle, let alone a traffic jam of them. YOu can actually make it through the "Needles" highway in under 1/2 hour. Usually takes an hour.
2. The caliber of clientele at the hotel I'm staying at is no longer out of state, middle to upper middle class folk. It's locals who are using the hotel as temporary living quarters as they've been kicked out of their homes or are returning from jail. I am now officially in the minority of boarders in that I have NEVER been to jail. The majority of boarders have. Drugs have been found on the premises. Deals are now made in the parking lot. And I find it a beneficial practice to clean my guns in front of my hotel room on the patio so everybody sees them.
3. Talking with the various proprietors of the three bars in town (which I have now established rapports with), I find out sales and foot traffic are down about 40%.
The whole point of this potpourri of economic statistics you'll not find in college textbooks?
The economy isn't recovering, and not only is it not recovering, I believe it's high time for a double dip.
Whatever the headline figures may read, other "down to Earth" measures of commerce and economic activity are down. Sure, ballroom dance classes are a luxury good which has a high elasticity with disposable income. And of course you could claim gas prices are hurting tourism, but if the economy was recovering, even stagnant, these statistics would remain consistent from 2010. For 2011, they're continuing their decline.
Naturally I would like to see a booming economy, alas my economic spidey senses and plain common sense know that just is not going to happen any time soon.
In the meantime, you all may as well enjoy the decline until 2012, at which point there MAY be a reason to work hard and try once again. But we shall see.
For example to accurately gauge economic growth in China and not the dubious "official GDP" statistics the Chinese government publishes, some economists look at electrical consumption. Alan Greenspan liked to look at railroad tie replacement rates. And there are others that escape my mind. But two come to mind here in the good ole USA that I've kind of unofficially kept track of;
Dance class enrollments and Harley ridership in the Black Hills.
I have been teaching ballroom dance for the past 14 years. This includes the booming 90's, the subsequent stock market crash, the booming housing bubble and the subsequent great recession. Enrollments followed correspondingly. I had standing room only (which all dance classes are HAR!!!!) at the peak of the Dotcom bubble. The 2000 recession hit, BLAMO! Enrollments dropped about 60%. The recovered and exceeded previously levels as attendees used home equity lines to finance SUV's, trips to Europe and ballroom dance classes. The housing market collapsed and BLAMO! Enrollments dropped 90% from their highs.
Of course with the economy in full recovery according to the left, you would think enrollments would have recovered. However, a full 3 years after the housing crisis, they keep going down. Below is a guestimate chart.
Then there is the ridership in the Black Hills. Sturgis is coming up and this is the third year I've placed myself in the Black Hills for the better part of 2 months in my effort to enjoy the decline. My hotel is in a small mountain town and there are three statistics I've anecdotally noticed.
1. The number of motorcycles on the road are about 1/2 of what they were last year around this time. I noticed this because I can actually drive the speed limit and not be burdened by some slow driving Harley noob who carted his motorcycle, let alone a traffic jam of them. YOu can actually make it through the "Needles" highway in under 1/2 hour. Usually takes an hour.
2. The caliber of clientele at the hotel I'm staying at is no longer out of state, middle to upper middle class folk. It's locals who are using the hotel as temporary living quarters as they've been kicked out of their homes or are returning from jail. I am now officially in the minority of boarders in that I have NEVER been to jail. The majority of boarders have. Drugs have been found on the premises. Deals are now made in the parking lot. And I find it a beneficial practice to clean my guns in front of my hotel room on the patio so everybody sees them.
3. Talking with the various proprietors of the three bars in town (which I have now established rapports with), I find out sales and foot traffic are down about 40%.
The whole point of this potpourri of economic statistics you'll not find in college textbooks?
The economy isn't recovering, and not only is it not recovering, I believe it's high time for a double dip.
Whatever the headline figures may read, other "down to Earth" measures of commerce and economic activity are down. Sure, ballroom dance classes are a luxury good which has a high elasticity with disposable income. And of course you could claim gas prices are hurting tourism, but if the economy was recovering, even stagnant, these statistics would remain consistent from 2010. For 2011, they're continuing their decline.
Naturally I would like to see a booming economy, alas my economic spidey senses and plain common sense know that just is not going to happen any time soon.
In the meantime, you all may as well enjoy the decline until 2012, at which point there MAY be a reason to work hard and try once again. But we shall see.
Friday, July 15, 2011
Corporate Infidelity
Arguably the single largest threat to freedom in the world is the "harmonization" of tax rates. Of course politicians like to use euphemisms so the ignorant masses can continue on watching their Lady Gaga or the latest professional sports competition, but trust me it is a threat. The reason why is if tax rates are "harmonized" then there is no incentive for business, investment or labor to go to one country versus another. And if tax rates are moved in conjunction with one another, then the governments essentially form an OPEC-like cartel ensuring that labor and capital are more or less trapped at their home country. Since there is no advantage to moving investment and labor to one place or another, governments (if working together) and implement whatever policies they want on their people because "where you going to go? Every place is the same."
Of course this is very boring economics stuff that is no where near as exciting as watching "The View" or "Glee." So, as is a principle of mine in economics, I like to simplify things so people can understand.
Thank God for Canada.
The above comic strip was drawn by Chris Foleen, one of the respondents to my request for a political cartoonist. You WILL visit his site.
Of course this is very boring economics stuff that is no where near as exciting as watching "The View" or "Glee." So, as is a principle of mine in economics, I like to simplify things so people can understand.
Thank God for Canada.
The above comic strip was drawn by Chris Foleen, one of the respondents to my request for a political cartoonist. You WILL visit his site.
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
More on the Ninja 250
I've received some questions and comments about my motorcycle and trip out here to South Dakota that it warranted a separate post unto itself so I shall be bullet-pointy to address some of the questions/comments;
- The Ninja 250 is a small motorcycle. Matter of fact I think it's about the smallest motorcycle you can get and still drive on the interstate. It is the LAMEST motorcycle in all of Sturgis, but she got there (see picture below).
- The mileage is GREAT, unless you are driving at speeds in excess of about 70 miles per hour. I usually get around 60-62MPG if I'm driving in the city, this includes interstate speeds in the city which are around 60-65MPH. However, once you go above 70 or 75 MPH, the fuel efficiency TANKS. This is noticeable when you go from Minnesota into South Dakota and the speed limit goes from 70MPH to 75MPH. In just that 5-10MPH difference my fuel efficiency drops from about 55-58MPG to 38MPG. I had to switch to the reserve tank as I approach Wall, SD and cut the speed down to maximize my fuel efficiency. YOu do NOT want to be stranded in the middle of nowhere South Dakota with no gas.
- There are many routes to take for motorcycle rides, but "The Needles" is perhaps the best. It follows the spine of the Black Hills up to Sylvan Lake (you can look all these things up on image searches to see the beauty). In one day we hit The Needles, Sylvan Lake, Hill City, Deadwood, Sturgis and the Vanocker Canyon.
- Repair of the Ninja 250 is easy, if not great. It's very simply designed and easy to access by taking off the fairings. I've been able to replace chains, change oil, replace water pumps, replace gas tanks, replace cables, change the fuel filter and clean the carbeurator, none of which takes more than an hour unless you run into a stubborn bolt. With the basic tools and parts you can pretty much do any kind of roadside maintenance and not break down. Most of which will fit into a smallish backpack (and wreak havoc on your back).
- Yes your back will be in immense pain if you drive a crotch rocket 660 miles in one day.
- Yes, girls do like motorcycles, even little puny ones like the one I have. I suggest spending the money on a fuel efficient motorcycle and accommodating safety gear instead of making your next 6 months worth of 401k contributions. Your return is higher and it's more fun than the "Mid-Cap Value Index Fund." No woman in the history of women said to a guy, "Oooo! You invested in the Mid-Cap Value Index Fund!" and conversely, "Ewwww! Yuck, gross! You have a motorcycle!"
- If any of you Cappy Cappites are out this direction, please shoot the Ole Captain an e-mail. He's always up for motorcycle riding, fossil hunting, mountain climbing, agate hunting or gun shooting. All of which are still legal in South Dakota.
Hallelujah!
I remember teaching dance class one time. Couple walks in with their kids about 3 and 5. Kids are running around, talking, making noise, annoying the other students. I finally break down and say, "Dude, you gotta do something with your kids."
So what do the brilliant parents do?
They put the toddlers ON THEIR HEADS/SHOULDERS like a chicken fight in a pool and try to dance with each other. For those of you unfamiliar with the world of ballroom dancing you need the use of your hands to dance with your partner, so these kids are essentially unsecured holding on to the heads of their parents who try (and fail) to do basic turns because they are effectively too tall with their children on top of them.
The guy who I asked to get his kids under control of course filed a complaint, but apparently people are fighting back.
So what do the brilliant parents do?
They put the toddlers ON THEIR HEADS/SHOULDERS like a chicken fight in a pool and try to dance with each other. For those of you unfamiliar with the world of ballroom dancing you need the use of your hands to dance with your partner, so these kids are essentially unsecured holding on to the heads of their parents who try (and fail) to do basic turns because they are effectively too tall with their children on top of them.
The guy who I asked to get his kids under control of course filed a complaint, but apparently people are fighting back.
Monday, July 11, 2011
Escaped Just in Time
The government shutdown and the general encroachment of the public sector on the private sector in Minnesota is certainly one reason I advocate escaping Minnesota. However, it is things like this, which are increasing in frequency, that provide additional incentive to escape Minnesota or at least move out of Nuevo Detroit (aka Minneapolis).
In the meantime your Captain has just embarked on day #3 of his great South Dakotan adventure. Day #1 was a 10 mile hike through the Black Hills, Day #2 was a 300 mile motorcycle ride through the Black Hills. Day #3 will entail another 10 mile hike through the agate-rich prairies. 2 M1 Cusano cigars have been smoked and copious amounts of booze have been consumed. Watching the news from back "home" just makes this trip that much more enjoyable.
Enjoy the decline!
In the meantime your Captain has just embarked on day #3 of his great South Dakotan adventure. Day #1 was a 10 mile hike through the Black Hills, Day #2 was a 300 mile motorcycle ride through the Black Hills. Day #3 will entail another 10 mile hike through the agate-rich prairies. 2 M1 Cusano cigars have been smoked and copious amounts of booze have been consumed. Watching the news from back "home" just makes this trip that much more enjoyable.
Enjoy the decline!
Friday, July 08, 2011
250 to Sturgis
It is now time for the Captain to take his Ninja 250 and drive it the 600 odd miles to Sturgis. Stops along the way will include the metropolis of Windom, the city center known as Adrian and who can forget the cultural mecca of Murdo?!
Posting will be infrequent as it is hard to blog on a motorcycle.
Wish me luck and that I do not hit any deer or moose-raccoons.
Cpt.
Posting will be infrequent as it is hard to blog on a motorcycle.
Wish me luck and that I do not hit any deer or moose-raccoons.
Cpt.
Thursday, July 07, 2011
No Kiddin'. South Korea?
I could have sworn they kind of appreciated us for kind of making it so they kind of didn't have to kind of suffer under the worst communist regime to ever exist. Maybe we should just let Kim Jong Il unify the peninsula.
Wednesday, July 06, 2011
The M1 Money Multiplier
Your Captain is a monetarist and (admittedly) has in his mental mind a simple model or "concept" of what role money plays in an economy. Ultimately money does not matter in that it is the amount of "stuff" we produce in a nation that determines its wealth. Sure, tinkering with the money supply can have an effect on the economy, largely a negative one, by distorting prices, triggering a misallocation of resources, and sending us into a recession. But if the government were to just keep the money supply in line with RGDP growth, inflation should be 0% (which brings up a question the Captain has had for a while "Why doesn't the Fed just aim for 0% inflation?").
But if you want to believe in Keynesianism and Santa Claus and the Boogeyman, you can study "multiplier effects."
I find the chart interesting on two accounts. One, the general decline in the M1 money multiplier (suggesting electronic payments are taking over physical cash transactions) and two the cliff during this last recession. It is here I believe is one of the reasons why the stimulus package has failed and is a vital flaw in Keynesian economics. When you mortgage the future of the country to the point of insolvency, people tend to close up their wallets. Therefore the more you "prime the pump" at the expense of mortgaging the future, the more people tighten their wallets in fear of worse economic times ahead, negating any effects of the stimulus.
Ultimately though what this teaches us is that Keynesian intervention (or any government intervention) into an economy is simply social engineering. As the US has aged, it's gone from a people telling the government what they want it to do (for better or worse) to a government telling the people what they are going to do (for worse). It won't be until the people who head up the government realize they do not control the $14 trillion beast that is the US economy.
But if you want to believe in Keynesianism and Santa Claus and the Boogeyman, you can study "multiplier effects."
I find the chart interesting on two accounts. One, the general decline in the M1 money multiplier (suggesting electronic payments are taking over physical cash transactions) and two the cliff during this last recession. It is here I believe is one of the reasons why the stimulus package has failed and is a vital flaw in Keynesian economics. When you mortgage the future of the country to the point of insolvency, people tend to close up their wallets. Therefore the more you "prime the pump" at the expense of mortgaging the future, the more people tighten their wallets in fear of worse economic times ahead, negating any effects of the stimulus.
Ultimately though what this teaches us is that Keynesian intervention (or any government intervention) into an economy is simply social engineering. As the US has aged, it's gone from a people telling the government what they want it to do (for better or worse) to a government telling the people what they are going to do (for worse). It won't be until the people who head up the government realize they do not control the $14 trillion beast that is the US economy.
The MBA Bubble Continues
I think we need to call MBA's "Norman Dyke Degrees."
All the education, none of the experience.
Enjoy the decline!
All the education, none of the experience.
Enjoy the decline!
Sunday, July 03, 2011
Send Off the Captain Right
Your Captain, as he does every year, is about to embark on his 2 month western vacation wherein he hops on his motorcycle and simply "ventures forth." This year's vacation will include the regular fossil hunting, mountain climbing, agate finding, buffalo dodging, camping, Texas Hold 'Em-ing, tornado-chasing and gun shooting. But he will also attempt to make it to Kemmerer, WY in an attempt to find a fish fossil (which is one of the few he does not have).
He will of course have a laptop with him and will be dispensing his super awesome economic genius, but if you want to help the Captain pay for the incredible amount o' gas he is going to consume (despite being on a motorcycle) as well as give him a thank you for the sage-advice on economics he's already given you may do so by clicking on any of the links in the side bar.
Of particular note is the now-nearly free Kindle version of his book and his online class, both of which you will get more than your money's worth. You can also donate to the Captain's Pay Pal account, in which case you will get nothing in return, but then you can lord over him about how he had to take charity from you and he will forever owe part of his future success to you.
All proceeds go to the Captain's "Gas and Rumpleminze Fund" which keeps him and his motorcycle fueled.
He will of course have a laptop with him and will be dispensing his super awesome economic genius, but if you want to help the Captain pay for the incredible amount o' gas he is going to consume (despite being on a motorcycle) as well as give him a thank you for the sage-advice on economics he's already given you may do so by clicking on any of the links in the side bar.
Of particular note is the now-nearly free Kindle version of his book and his online class, both of which you will get more than your money's worth. You can also donate to the Captain's Pay Pal account, in which case you will get nothing in return, but then you can lord over him about how he had to take charity from you and he will forever owe part of his future success to you.
All proceeds go to the Captain's "Gas and Rumpleminze Fund" which keeps him and his motorcycle fueled.
Friday, July 01, 2011
Failed at Tornado Chasing
But a buddy of mine got one heck of a photo of a sunset reflecting on the remnants of the storms that rolled through;
"Stocks Gain After "STRONG" Industrial Report"
So the PMI comes out higher than expected.
The Dow Jones shoots up 100 points.
"Hurray! The economy is finally recovering!"
That is until you do the job the media is supposed to be doing and put it in context. I circled the increase from 53.5 to the "strong" 55.3 between May and June.
I added the additional "POW!" to make it look like the old Batman TV show to give it more of an effect.
Filed under - "The Cancer is Spreading Less Slowly"
The Dow Jones shoots up 100 points.
"Hurray! The economy is finally recovering!"
That is until you do the job the media is supposed to be doing and put it in context. I circled the increase from 53.5 to the "strong" 55.3 between May and June.
I added the additional "POW!" to make it look like the old Batman TV show to give it more of an effect.
Filed under - "The Cancer is Spreading Less Slowly"