Rantings and tirades of a frustrated economist.
Funny how the news never mentions the 39,000+ that die from the flu every year. The epidemic is really all about the news media being lazy and not wanting to go out and report on actual news. Instead they try to get maximum mileage with the "news du jour"Reminds me of 2003 or 2004 when there was a HUGE uproar about shark attacks near the beaches. Every day for about two weeks, all the news outlets had stories about shark attacks. "Experts" were interviewed about why the surge in shark-human encounters. People were looking into ways to exterminate the sharks.Turns out that the real number of shark attacks was actually lower that year then the year before, and in reality, slightly below average. Guess that demonstrates the quality of their "experts"
Gee and they wonder why? WHY? Newpapers are going down the toilet in readership and so are some TV News programs.
Any time that two events happen one right after the other, the media decides that it is a "rash".This type of cluster mis-identification is rampant in both the media and government. Apparently none of them ever took statistics in school.http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/
While total deaths look about average on this chart, its important to keep in mind WHO is dying. H1N1 is disproportionately affecting younger people, and that is where a lot of the deaths are coming from, especially pregnant women. I think you would agree that a disease that kills 1 million 70 year olds is quite a bit different than one that kills 1 million 20 year olds, even though both killed the same number of people. This is a case of the charts leaving out the most important information: average age of death.
I don't think total deaths look at all average on those charts. The second chart is showing a peak right now about the same height as in previous years. Fine. But look at the time scale. The current peak is at week 39 of the year which in the last two years had zip for deaths. The chart suggests that in normal years the true peak in flu death comes about the end of February.
To the anon in the forth comment: I don't see many 20 year olds kneeling over. It's the very young, the very old, and the pregnant that are primarily dieing, as usual. There was some hoopla about people with strong immune systems (20 year olds) exhibiting stronger symptoms than usual but nothing about them dieing in greater numbers. My take on the whole thing is that we'll make h1n1 out to be a horrible problem so that the messiah can "solve" it through his herculean immunization program. This will prove that the government can handle taking over the medical industry. Just wait, the new state funded media will do nothing but talk about how the anointed one saved us from h1n1.
What's interesting to me are six things:a) the out of normal cycle of the H1N1 deaths,b) we haven't gotten into significant deaths from the seasonal flu yet and probably won't for a few more weeks. c) the numbers here are pediatric deaths, not total deaths. The young are supposedly more receptive to H1N1.d) it's hard to tell where we are at with the H1N1 distribution - has it peaked yet? And no one knows what happens when the seasonal flu and the H1N1 are both running around.e) No one knows if the H1N1 will mutate into something more dangerous.f) It appears the Federal government response thus far is too little too late.Aw heck, why waste a good panic anyway.
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