Friday, May 29, 2015
Your Mission, Should You Choose to Accept It
is to follow the Ole Captain on twitter this weekend. (frankly, just trying to see if I can get 1,000 new followers in a weekend)
How Can We Have "Negative Interest Rates?"
I received this question from one of my students and the answer I thought would help advance all you aspiring, junior, deputy, official, or otherwise economists out there:
Well, the short version is that countries lie to their people about how the real world economy works.
People
believe they can have their cake and eat it too, which ultimately means
borrowing more than they can ever hope to pay back for both individuals
and governments.
This leads to debts that become
impossible to pay back and asset bubbles like the stock market or
housing markets which inevitably crash.
Once the
economy crashes, governments scramble to get it back on foot, NOT so
much to grow the economy again, but to prevent people from paying the
price of being so stupid as to borrow more than they could afford or for
voting in politicians who spend more than their respective countries
can afford. To do this governments print off more money to pay for both
the private and public debts, which is done through their central
bank. THis money does not pay back the debts directly, but rather buys
those debts off of the people who foolishly made them:
TARP
Mortgage Backed Securities
Asset Backed Securities
and I predict in the new future student loans
This
money does NOT end up in the economy (which would cause inflation), but
ends up simply recapitlizating (or "shoring up") the poor finances of
the banks and lending houses that made such stupid loans. This, coupled
with a harsh and recent memory of the financial crisis or latest bubble
bursting, makes people reluctant to borrow this new money and so the
financial system is awash with money that nobody wants to borrow.
In
the end banks do not make money if they don't lend out their money.
But people want their money deposited and held safely in a bank
account. This means that banks would be providing a service (depository
services aka "safe keeping") but have nowhere to lend it out to. Thus,
instead of paying interest on those deposits, they start charging.
This
occurs especially acutely, however, to banks or countries where they
are deemed "more reliable" than others. ie - Switzerland.
Everybody
wants to deposit their money in a Swiss bank because it is safe.
Additionally, people want to own Swiss Francs as opposed to Euros (which
would be destroyed by Greece), US Dollars (which would be tanked by a
housing bubble or student loan bubble, or just massive government
deficit spending) or Chinese Yuan (which would be ruined by corruption
and their own debt problems).
Alas, Swiss banks
and Switzerland cannot simply be everybody's banker, and they must
charge (ie - negative interest rates) on their depository accounts.
And that IS about as simple as I can make it and that leaves a lot on the ground.
Thursday, May 28, 2015
Glorious Thursday Day Linkage
This is one of the many reasons I don't believe in global warming.
I knew I liked Chris Pratt for a reason.
Robert McCain chimes in on Feminist Road, pointing out there's a "Moby" in our midst.
You don't listen to fat people giving advice on dating, just as you don't listen to European politicians giving advice on economic growth.
Exxon grows a pair.
I knew I liked Chris Pratt for a reason.
Robert McCain chimes in on Feminist Road, pointing out there's a "Moby" in our midst.
You don't listen to fat people giving advice on dating, just as you don't listen to European politicians giving advice on economic growth.
Exxon grows a pair.
Wednesday, May 27, 2015
The Clarey Podcast "You're All Not Having Enough Sex" Episode
Taking out the motorcycle
The story of 19 year old Cappy buying his girlfriend lingerie
Clarey's "Forced March Wedding in the Desert"
Taking two weeks off from your wife/girlfriend
"We didn't have the internet when we were young!"
Oregon mileage tax and why you don't want to live there
Online accredited classes offered at ASU
and MORE!
In THIS EPISODE of The Clarey Podcast
The story of 19 year old Cappy buying his girlfriend lingerie
Clarey's "Forced March Wedding in the Desert"
Taking two weeks off from your wife/girlfriend
"We didn't have the internet when we were young!"
Oregon mileage tax and why you don't want to live there
Online accredited classes offered at ASU
and MORE!
In THIS EPISODE of The Clarey Podcast
I Got Your $15/Hr "Right Here!"
Oh noesies!!! What are liberal arts grads going to do for jobs now????
Tuesday, May 26, 2015
Inferior vs. Superior People
Just stating the obvious which too many people lack the spine to state:
Rainy Day Linkage
Chris and Aurini do the work that the MSM won't.
One of my old haunts is being sold, hopefully remaining the same.
Which is why I got to the Black Hills often.
70% of you can't think you're above average and 80% of you can't think you're special. But don't let reality get in the way of the "Self Esteem Movement."
Traditional universities replaced with rooms full of servers.
The top 9 gods liberals worship.
Dr. Helen makes a funny!
Harland Williams makes the note that Mad Max is not about Mad Max. And no, I still haven't seen the movie.
Attacking the wrong degenerates (though I do wish Mr. Aurini would not use the word "faggot")
One of my old haunts is being sold, hopefully remaining the same.
Which is why I got to the Black Hills often.
70% of you can't think you're above average and 80% of you can't think you're special. But don't let reality get in the way of the "Self Esteem Movement."
Traditional universities replaced with rooms full of servers.
The top 9 gods liberals worship.
Dr. Helen makes a funny!
Harland Williams makes the note that Mad Max is not about Mad Max. And no, I still haven't seen the movie.
Attacking the wrong degenerates (though I do wish Mr. Aurini would not use the word "faggot")
Monday, May 25, 2015
Society vs. The Individual Part 1
I originally intended this to be a short video, but the more I thought about it, it was so detailed and important, I decided to make it a post. Then once I delved into the rabbit hole, I noticed it really is a two part post. Problem and then Solution sort of thing. Anyway, if you would be so kind as to forward this to anybody you know that would appreciate it or benefit from it, I would be very grateful as I think in these two posts are the PRACTICAL key for improving many people's lives and the condition of the country.
The relationship between society and the individual, by nature, has to be symbiotic. Society is made up of individuals and it would logically follow that strong individuals make up a strong society. However, over time and under different environments the relationship between society and the individual is not always mutually beneficial. And if that's the case it's almost always society benefiting at the expense of the individual as the many can conspire against the individual and not the other way around. It's simply "there's 8 of us and only 1 of you, guess who we're having for diner!"
We see this "society taking advantage of the individual" throughout history as well as today. Mob-rule democracies using government to force individuals to pay for the masses' mistakes. Religion telling its adherents to donate to the church or burn in hell. Even the unconscious psychology of tribalism effectively enslaving the individual for the benefit of the commune. There are many instances where the individual is right, and society is wrong.
But aside from the time and monetary costs the individual pays for the benefit of society, there is another egregious cost that is often ignored, but the individual must pay - his sanity.
While paying taxes, being forced to donate to a church, or getting beat up because you dared to "act white" and get good grades are clear and identifiable prices the individual pays, in order to keep the individual from going into full revolt or Galt, society needs to brainwash the individual so they don't dare question the parasitic nature of society's relationship with them. To that end a whole host of lies, narratives, political correctness and propaganda are shoved down individuals' throats to keep them from asking questions and keep them from independent thought. However, this "brainwashing" is nothing as simple as merely disseminating lies and repeating it enough that people "start to believe it." It's a masterful, elaborate, and purposefully designed strategy, starting when the individual is all of 4 years old and never ending until that individual is dead and society has used him up as much as possible.
But as "masterful, elaborate and purposefully designed" it is, this brainwashing is above all else thorough and incredibly effective. If I were to estimate it right now, nearly 95% of westerners are brainwashed and believe in what are nothing more than outright lies. And not only do they believe in these lies, the brainwashing is so effective they have an emotional investment in these lies so that if any of you were to dare question the veracity of those lies, most people would react violently, at minimum, angrily. However, no matter how emotionally vested these people are in these lies, it doesn't change the fact they live their lives and base INCREDIBLY important life decisions on these lies which results in the aforementioned true price they pay - sanity.
The examples are limitless.
"The Nice Guy"
How many millions of men suffered decades of insanity believing the lies SOCIETY told them about what women wanted in men? Here you have what is no doubt the STRONGEST and MOST IMPORTANT biological drive young men have in their lives and did society tell them the truth about what women wanted? Did society tell them, "Hey, women want:
"A physically strong man."
"A leader."
"A man who will not be dissuaded or deterred"
"A provider who can support a wife, mortgage, and children?"
No, society LIED to (now three) generations of young men telling them women wanted
"A nice guy."
"A sweet guy."
"A sensitive 90's guy."
"A guy who listens."
The ultimate end result was a 50% divorce rate, sexually frustrated women, weak, effeminate men, destroyed families, and (now three) generations of men who have ruined financial and romantic lives. But all of that pales in comparison to the INSANITY these men suffered because they "did what they were told" and had absolutely no success to show for it. The sheer madness that ensued when you attempted to be successful at what was arguably the most important thing in life, only to constantly fail, but only to constantly be told to redouble your efforts on the same plan is a psychological pain many men can testify to.
But still, no matter how much destruction these lies caused or how many men in their 20's it drove mad, at least society (in the form of government, divorce courts, the psychology profession, and feminist intelligentsia) benefited.
"You Can Have It All"
Before we paint men as the sole victims, women have suffered too. And not in the "glass ceiling" or "wage gap myth" sort of way. The lies society told women was that "they could have it all" and "you ARE the exact same as men." And so (now three full) generations of young women went out and instead of pursuing families (like they had for 99.995% of human existence) they believed society and all tried to be:
Mothers
CEO's
Doctorates
PTA officers
Yoga attendees and
Race car drivers
And ALL AT THE SAME TIME NO LESS!
And forget the mathematical impossibility of doing all of this effectively with only 24 hours in a day. The real coup de etat was society actually got women to believe that work is fun or something to be desired!
The result, again, is divorce, destroyed families, ill-reared children, regret, and single-parent homes. However, the true price paid is the INSANITY women have suffered "doing what society told them to do," but being less happy than generations past.
Still, it doesn't matter. Society (in the form of government, feminist intelligentsia, and corporate employers) benefited from increased tax rolls, misery-loving company, and a labor market flooded with new and cheap labor.
Education
If there's a perfect example of the individual suffering insanity because they believed society's lies, today's labor market for college graduates is it. For you could not have a more textbook example of thoroughly effective and successful brainwashing than today's Millennial college graduates.
Fed spoons' full of lies since kindergarten, today's latest generation actually believed in what their Gen X peers proved wrong - "do what you want and the money will follow." "Any degree is a good degree." "It doesn't matter what you get a degree in, it's what you do with it." Add to that the ass-kissing lie that "they were the future" and these deluded sheeple actually thought majoring in Sociology would land them a job.
But sadly, after 4 years undergrad, 2 years in a masters program, another 2 for a doctorate and voting for Barack Obama twice, your average Millennial has $78,000 in student loans, a lousy labor market, no skills and lives with their parents. Can you imagine not just the insanity, but the terror and fear these poor kids have now that it looks like their lives are ruined forever and will come NOWHERE NEAR to what they were promised?
Oh well. No matter. Democrats got their votes, academia got $1 trillion every year this generation was in college, and employers now have MILLIONS of new and ESPECIALLY DESPERATE people begging for jobs. Again, society won at the expense of the individual.
Careers
And finally careers.
If you were like me, you too believed the lies society told you about what it took to succeed at a career.
"Hard work, an education, loyalty, creativity, and innovation!"
So there you went, believing the lies, majoring in a hard and seemingly practical subject. Studying day and night to get that 3.8 GPA. Going that extra mile working an unpaid internship to "improve" your resume. Taking extra classes to get extra certifications with random acronyms. ("I got my DPT and my EGS certifications! But I'm still working on my XKT cert!") And dancing like a trained dog to perfect your resume, answer HR's frivolous questions, and "score that job." You may have lowered yourself to reading books on the topic and endured "mock interviews."
But sadly, in the end, to be successful in Corporate America you need to lie, cheat, scam, manipulate, even threaten. You need to be borderline criminally aggressive, preferably a highly functional sociopath...that is of course assuming you're not the boss' son, or performing fellatio on him. Then you just be you.
Regardless, once again, think of the billions in cumulative lives that were wasted by aspiring "loyal corporate men and women" who believed the shtick, sacrificed their families, friends, and lives for a career that was never going to be. How much insanity did they endure "doing what they were told," deteriorating in 2 hour daily commutes, only to deteriorate more for 10 hours a day in a cubicle, for decades only to never get promoted or get that dream job?
Doesn't matter. Society wins again. Employers dupe stooges into becoming effective slaves on the cheap. Governments take in more in taxes. Banks make a fine profit off of the interest on that house you can barely afford. And the day care provider industry is only more than thankful you decided to outsource your children.
We could go on, but I think you get the point.
The moronic yuppie couple trying to afford the McMansion and sports SUV's who believed in the rat race only to benefit society in slave labor, more taxes, credit card companies, and mortgage interest.
The impoverished black male who thinks his lot in life is because of "evil white men," when it's his new slave masters he's benefiting, namely Al Sharpton, the police, and the Democrat party.
Or the "heroic single mom" who actually believes she's heroic (when in reality she's ruining her and her childrens' lives), but at least she'll fork over the money to Oprah, watch "The View" and vote for more government money.
Nearly everybody in the western world believes in, and lives their lives by, lies that society told them to simply take advantage of them. The lies are very sweet, and often times assuages you of any guilt or responsibility for your mistakes in life (which often times explains the violent/angry response when the lies are pointed out as it is forcing a mirror into people's faces). But let us be clear.
THEY
ARE
LIES
They're not true.
And if you live your life by these lies, you will suffer because your decisions are not being made in reality.
Part 2 will address the herculean effort it takes to no longer believe these lies, as well as the punishment society will unleash upon you if you dare to no longer believe them
The relationship between society and the individual, by nature, has to be symbiotic. Society is made up of individuals and it would logically follow that strong individuals make up a strong society. However, over time and under different environments the relationship between society and the individual is not always mutually beneficial. And if that's the case it's almost always society benefiting at the expense of the individual as the many can conspire against the individual and not the other way around. It's simply "there's 8 of us and only 1 of you, guess who we're having for diner!"
We see this "society taking advantage of the individual" throughout history as well as today. Mob-rule democracies using government to force individuals to pay for the masses' mistakes. Religion telling its adherents to donate to the church or burn in hell. Even the unconscious psychology of tribalism effectively enslaving the individual for the benefit of the commune. There are many instances where the individual is right, and society is wrong.
But aside from the time and monetary costs the individual pays for the benefit of society, there is another egregious cost that is often ignored, but the individual must pay - his sanity.
While paying taxes, being forced to donate to a church, or getting beat up because you dared to "act white" and get good grades are clear and identifiable prices the individual pays, in order to keep the individual from going into full revolt or Galt, society needs to brainwash the individual so they don't dare question the parasitic nature of society's relationship with them. To that end a whole host of lies, narratives, political correctness and propaganda are shoved down individuals' throats to keep them from asking questions and keep them from independent thought. However, this "brainwashing" is nothing as simple as merely disseminating lies and repeating it enough that people "start to believe it." It's a masterful, elaborate, and purposefully designed strategy, starting when the individual is all of 4 years old and never ending until that individual is dead and society has used him up as much as possible.
But as "masterful, elaborate and purposefully designed" it is, this brainwashing is above all else thorough and incredibly effective. If I were to estimate it right now, nearly 95% of westerners are brainwashed and believe in what are nothing more than outright lies. And not only do they believe in these lies, the brainwashing is so effective they have an emotional investment in these lies so that if any of you were to dare question the veracity of those lies, most people would react violently, at minimum, angrily. However, no matter how emotionally vested these people are in these lies, it doesn't change the fact they live their lives and base INCREDIBLY important life decisions on these lies which results in the aforementioned true price they pay - sanity.
The examples are limitless.
"The Nice Guy"
How many millions of men suffered decades of insanity believing the lies SOCIETY told them about what women wanted in men? Here you have what is no doubt the STRONGEST and MOST IMPORTANT biological drive young men have in their lives and did society tell them the truth about what women wanted? Did society tell them, "Hey, women want:
"A physically strong man."
"A leader."
"A man who will not be dissuaded or deterred"
"A provider who can support a wife, mortgage, and children?"
No, society LIED to (now three) generations of young men telling them women wanted
"A nice guy."
"A sweet guy."
"A sensitive 90's guy."
"A guy who listens."
The ultimate end result was a 50% divorce rate, sexually frustrated women, weak, effeminate men, destroyed families, and (now three) generations of men who have ruined financial and romantic lives. But all of that pales in comparison to the INSANITY these men suffered because they "did what they were told" and had absolutely no success to show for it. The sheer madness that ensued when you attempted to be successful at what was arguably the most important thing in life, only to constantly fail, but only to constantly be told to redouble your efforts on the same plan is a psychological pain many men can testify to.
But still, no matter how much destruction these lies caused or how many men in their 20's it drove mad, at least society (in the form of government, divorce courts, the psychology profession, and feminist intelligentsia) benefited.
"You Can Have It All"
Before we paint men as the sole victims, women have suffered too. And not in the "glass ceiling" or "wage gap myth" sort of way. The lies society told women was that "they could have it all" and "you ARE the exact same as men." And so (now three full) generations of young women went out and instead of pursuing families (like they had for 99.995% of human existence) they believed society and all tried to be:
Mothers
CEO's
Doctorates
PTA officers
Yoga attendees and
Race car drivers
And ALL AT THE SAME TIME NO LESS!
And forget the mathematical impossibility of doing all of this effectively with only 24 hours in a day. The real coup de etat was society actually got women to believe that work is fun or something to be desired!
The result, again, is divorce, destroyed families, ill-reared children, regret, and single-parent homes. However, the true price paid is the INSANITY women have suffered "doing what society told them to do," but being less happy than generations past.
Still, it doesn't matter. Society (in the form of government, feminist intelligentsia, and corporate employers) benefited from increased tax rolls, misery-loving company, and a labor market flooded with new and cheap labor.
Education
If there's a perfect example of the individual suffering insanity because they believed society's lies, today's labor market for college graduates is it. For you could not have a more textbook example of thoroughly effective and successful brainwashing than today's Millennial college graduates.
Fed spoons' full of lies since kindergarten, today's latest generation actually believed in what their Gen X peers proved wrong - "do what you want and the money will follow." "Any degree is a good degree." "It doesn't matter what you get a degree in, it's what you do with it." Add to that the ass-kissing lie that "they were the future" and these deluded sheeple actually thought majoring in Sociology would land them a job.
But sadly, after 4 years undergrad, 2 years in a masters program, another 2 for a doctorate and voting for Barack Obama twice, your average Millennial has $78,000 in student loans, a lousy labor market, no skills and lives with their parents. Can you imagine not just the insanity, but the terror and fear these poor kids have now that it looks like their lives are ruined forever and will come NOWHERE NEAR to what they were promised?
Oh well. No matter. Democrats got their votes, academia got $1 trillion every year this generation was in college, and employers now have MILLIONS of new and ESPECIALLY DESPERATE people begging for jobs. Again, society won at the expense of the individual.
Careers
And finally careers.
If you were like me, you too believed the lies society told you about what it took to succeed at a career.
"Hard work, an education, loyalty, creativity, and innovation!"
So there you went, believing the lies, majoring in a hard and seemingly practical subject. Studying day and night to get that 3.8 GPA. Going that extra mile working an unpaid internship to "improve" your resume. Taking extra classes to get extra certifications with random acronyms. ("I got my DPT and my EGS certifications! But I'm still working on my XKT cert!") And dancing like a trained dog to perfect your resume, answer HR's frivolous questions, and "score that job." You may have lowered yourself to reading books on the topic and endured "mock interviews."
But sadly, in the end, to be successful in Corporate America you need to lie, cheat, scam, manipulate, even threaten. You need to be borderline criminally aggressive, preferably a highly functional sociopath...that is of course assuming you're not the boss' son, or performing fellatio on him. Then you just be you.
Regardless, once again, think of the billions in cumulative lives that were wasted by aspiring "loyal corporate men and women" who believed the shtick, sacrificed their families, friends, and lives for a career that was never going to be. How much insanity did they endure "doing what they were told," deteriorating in 2 hour daily commutes, only to deteriorate more for 10 hours a day in a cubicle, for decades only to never get promoted or get that dream job?
Doesn't matter. Society wins again. Employers dupe stooges into becoming effective slaves on the cheap. Governments take in more in taxes. Banks make a fine profit off of the interest on that house you can barely afford. And the day care provider industry is only more than thankful you decided to outsource your children.
We could go on, but I think you get the point.
The moronic yuppie couple trying to afford the McMansion and sports SUV's who believed in the rat race only to benefit society in slave labor, more taxes, credit card companies, and mortgage interest.
The impoverished black male who thinks his lot in life is because of "evil white men," when it's his new slave masters he's benefiting, namely Al Sharpton, the police, and the Democrat party.
Or the "heroic single mom" who actually believes she's heroic (when in reality she's ruining her and her childrens' lives), but at least she'll fork over the money to Oprah, watch "The View" and vote for more government money.
Nearly everybody in the western world believes in, and lives their lives by, lies that society told them to simply take advantage of them. The lies are very sweet, and often times assuages you of any guilt or responsibility for your mistakes in life (which often times explains the violent/angry response when the lies are pointed out as it is forcing a mirror into people's faces). But let us be clear.
THEY
ARE
LIES
They're not true.
And if you live your life by these lies, you will suffer because your decisions are not being made in reality.
Part 2 will address the herculean effort it takes to no longer believe these lies, as well as the punishment society will unleash upon you if you dare to no longer believe them
Sunday, May 24, 2015
Thursday, May 21, 2015
"The Truth About George Washington" by Stefan Molyneux
I thoroughly enjoyed this lengthy podcast/investigation about the rise and competency of George Washington. Even if you think George Washington was god, it is still interesting to note the effects of connections and cronyism in Colonial American politics. I would be curious if anybody from the UK or US would be able to corroborate it on account I trust Stefan Molyneux's intent and veracity.
Wednesday, May 20, 2015
Help a Fellow Cappy Cappite Find His Lost Son
Bad news every one. A good friend of mine's son has gone missing.
The kid's name is Danny/Daniel Domres and he is a soldier based in Colorado Springs that has gone AWOL. The details are here, but the kid could be anywhere.
Anyway, keep an eye out for him or if you know about his whereabouts please contact the ole Captain.
The kid's name is Danny/Daniel Domres and he is a soldier based in Colorado Springs that has gone AWOL. The details are here, but the kid could be anywhere.
Anyway, keep an eye out for him or if you know about his whereabouts please contact the ole Captain.
If Blogs Were Stocks, We'd All Be Millionaires
An outstanding point by one of my commenters:
What's the point of trying to save $300,000 in a retirement plan paying 2%? That's only $6,000/yr in income... so, does that mean if you start up a website that generates $500/month income that it also is worth $300,000?
If so, I'd say it's a helluva lot easier to start the website than to save $300,000 - especially since it will take 36 years to double your capital with interest compounding at only 2%.
This was in response to my original post that given the insane valuation multiples of the stock market, I can get a higher rate of return by investing in stupid ideas like this. Yes, it's not as liquid, yes, there are no perpetual, magical "capital gains," but the cash flow (which once again is the ONLY thing that drives the value of any investment) is a lot more than a paltry 2%. Ergo, if you really want to look forward and not be part of the 401k Clergy Sheeple Congregation, in addition to your 401k or IRA you may want to put forth a little effort into starting a little business on the side.
What's the point of trying to save $300,000 in a retirement plan paying 2%? That's only $6,000/yr in income... so, does that mean if you start up a website that generates $500/month income that it also is worth $300,000?
If so, I'd say it's a helluva lot easier to start the website than to save $300,000 - especially since it will take 36 years to double your capital with interest compounding at only 2%.
This was in response to my original post that given the insane valuation multiples of the stock market, I can get a higher rate of return by investing in stupid ideas like this. Yes, it's not as liquid, yes, there are no perpetual, magical "capital gains," but the cash flow (which once again is the ONLY thing that drives the value of any investment) is a lot more than a paltry 2%. Ergo, if you really want to look forward and not be part of the 401k Clergy Sheeple Congregation, in addition to your 401k or IRA you may want to put forth a little effort into starting a little business on the side.
Tuesday, May 19, 2015
What Precisely is a "World Reserve Currency?"
A video request that turned out to be a pretty good lesson for those new, young, aspiring economists here on Cappy Cap.
Finance Industry as a % of GDP
Time for a simple economics lesson we can all enjoy. So gather round and listen to ole Uncle Cappie.
The finance industry, technically produces nothing of value. Yes they provide banking services. Yes they keep your money safe. But in the grand scheme of things the finance industry merely supports the production of stuff. It in it of itself produces nothing of value.
Because of this you would like to see the finance industry account for as small as a percentage of GDP as possible as it would indicate the industry is being "efficient" by supporting the "real" economy consuming as little as possible in terms of resources. Matter of fact, you'd like to see it shrinking as this would indicate efficiency gains allowing the finance industry to support increasingly more real production while consume the same or less amount in terms of resources.
So what has happened to the US finance industry as a percentage of GDP? Well this.
While at the end of WWII the finance industry only accounted for 2.5% of GDP, today it's now over 7%, almost reaching 8% during the height of the housing bubble.
So why is this happening and why should you care? Because it explains a lot about the global economy and portends things for our future.
First, the US economy has gone from an industrial one to one where we are increasingly more service based. The decline in industry and manufacturing was caused by outsourcing our industries overseas as labor (and taxes) were typically cheaper. This helped increase services as a percent of our GDP, partially explaining the tripling of the finance industry's size relative to GDP.
Second, manufacturing is hard and math based. If you had the choice to work on an assembly line, doing manual labor for 8-10 hours a day, or sit in an air conditioned cubicle farm clicking a mouse, most people would prefer the air conditioned cubicle farm. And so as economies grow they prefer to pursue these "easier" industries as they are not only likely more profitable, but just plain "easier." Alas, this is why we have "Tina the 25 year old social worker" and "Chip the investment banker" while China has "Jing the suicidal iPhone assembler" and "Chang the coal miner dying from black lung." Modern Americans would just prefer not to get their hands dirty, and there's really no dirty hard work in banking.
This results in a sort of "tail waging the dog" as a flood of labor into banking and finance bloats the industry's size relative to the rest of the economy, while providing less and less value to the real economy. Alas, this is why most finance positions are sales and not providing services that help the rest of the economy grow.
Third, as the world economy becomes more integrated and globalized, different countries specialize in different things. And so instead of merely serving and selling products within your borders, you sell your goods and services around the globe. This results in some countries becoming the manufacturing plants of the world, while other countries (notably the UK, the US and Switzerland) become the "financial centers" of the world. In other words the US finance industry is no longer serving the US, but the entire globe, and thus its share of the domestic economy grows.
But then there is the fourth reason. And the fourth reason is reason enough to worry. And the reason you should worry is because here the finance industry provides absolutely NOTHING in terms of real production or value for the rest of the economy.
The retirement bubble.
You all know my opinion that the stock market is highly overvalued due to the trillions in retirement dollars that have flooded it. However, do not expect people to start becoming savvy investors who start asking questions about PE ratios and contemplate how dividends ultimately drive value. Too many commission addicted salesmen and mutual fund managers need Americans to keep buying stocks, bonds, and mutual funds. And the "401k Clergy" in the finance industry need you guys to keep mindlessly investing in your IRA's for "retirement." This means that instead of:
financing a new plant
raising money for a new mining company
or providing the capital to expand Stark Enterprises' robotics division
the vast majority of the finance and banking industry is focused solely on selling you assets.
And merely selling stuff does not help contribute to GDP.
It is here I get a little chuckle because 9 out of 10 times when I run into your standard leftist they immediately point to the booming stock market as evidence that "the economy can't be doing that bad." But of course when I cite the actual measure that measures the economy (GDP) they ignore that, preferring instead to think asset prices "are the economy." But the divergence from economic growth and asset prices is not a good thing, because all profits (and thus all the value of all assets) ultimately has to come from economic growth. And right now we have fantastically high prices, with slow, sluggish, lethargic economic growth.
In the end, however, the two will have to converge. We can certainly postpone the inevitable with having a world reserve currency. We can play currency wars and borrow till our heart's content, creating entire industries out of borrowed money to keep our precious liberal-arts majoring princesses and princes employed. But in the end, there needs to be economic growth to warrant forever increasing asset prices.
In the meantime, keeping tabs on how big a non-producing industry like finance grows as a percent of our overall economy is a pretty good way to tell if the country and its people have any intention of growing up, putting work gloves on, and starting to produce things of genuine economic value,
or,
if we want to continue living in Lala Land where we can all be bankers, we can all be life insurance salesmen, we can all be teachers, and we can all retire on full pensions with forever increasing asset prices at 55.
Enjoy the decline.
The finance industry, technically produces nothing of value. Yes they provide banking services. Yes they keep your money safe. But in the grand scheme of things the finance industry merely supports the production of stuff. It in it of itself produces nothing of value.
Because of this you would like to see the finance industry account for as small as a percentage of GDP as possible as it would indicate the industry is being "efficient" by supporting the "real" economy consuming as little as possible in terms of resources. Matter of fact, you'd like to see it shrinking as this would indicate efficiency gains allowing the finance industry to support increasingly more real production while consume the same or less amount in terms of resources.
So what has happened to the US finance industry as a percentage of GDP? Well this.
While at the end of WWII the finance industry only accounted for 2.5% of GDP, today it's now over 7%, almost reaching 8% during the height of the housing bubble.
So why is this happening and why should you care? Because it explains a lot about the global economy and portends things for our future.
First, the US economy has gone from an industrial one to one where we are increasingly more service based. The decline in industry and manufacturing was caused by outsourcing our industries overseas as labor (and taxes) were typically cheaper. This helped increase services as a percent of our GDP, partially explaining the tripling of the finance industry's size relative to GDP.
Second, manufacturing is hard and math based. If you had the choice to work on an assembly line, doing manual labor for 8-10 hours a day, or sit in an air conditioned cubicle farm clicking a mouse, most people would prefer the air conditioned cubicle farm. And so as economies grow they prefer to pursue these "easier" industries as they are not only likely more profitable, but just plain "easier." Alas, this is why we have "Tina the 25 year old social worker" and "Chip the investment banker" while China has "Jing the suicidal iPhone assembler" and "Chang the coal miner dying from black lung." Modern Americans would just prefer not to get their hands dirty, and there's really no dirty hard work in banking.
This results in a sort of "tail waging the dog" as a flood of labor into banking and finance bloats the industry's size relative to the rest of the economy, while providing less and less value to the real economy. Alas, this is why most finance positions are sales and not providing services that help the rest of the economy grow.
Third, as the world economy becomes more integrated and globalized, different countries specialize in different things. And so instead of merely serving and selling products within your borders, you sell your goods and services around the globe. This results in some countries becoming the manufacturing plants of the world, while other countries (notably the UK, the US and Switzerland) become the "financial centers" of the world. In other words the US finance industry is no longer serving the US, but the entire globe, and thus its share of the domestic economy grows.
But then there is the fourth reason. And the fourth reason is reason enough to worry. And the reason you should worry is because here the finance industry provides absolutely NOTHING in terms of real production or value for the rest of the economy.
The retirement bubble.
You all know my opinion that the stock market is highly overvalued due to the trillions in retirement dollars that have flooded it. However, do not expect people to start becoming savvy investors who start asking questions about PE ratios and contemplate how dividends ultimately drive value. Too many commission addicted salesmen and mutual fund managers need Americans to keep buying stocks, bonds, and mutual funds. And the "401k Clergy" in the finance industry need you guys to keep mindlessly investing in your IRA's for "retirement." This means that instead of:
financing a new plant
raising money for a new mining company
or providing the capital to expand Stark Enterprises' robotics division
the vast majority of the finance and banking industry is focused solely on selling you assets.
And merely selling stuff does not help contribute to GDP.
It is here I get a little chuckle because 9 out of 10 times when I run into your standard leftist they immediately point to the booming stock market as evidence that "the economy can't be doing that bad." But of course when I cite the actual measure that measures the economy (GDP) they ignore that, preferring instead to think asset prices "are the economy." But the divergence from economic growth and asset prices is not a good thing, because all profits (and thus all the value of all assets) ultimately has to come from economic growth. And right now we have fantastically high prices, with slow, sluggish, lethargic economic growth.
In the end, however, the two will have to converge. We can certainly postpone the inevitable with having a world reserve currency. We can play currency wars and borrow till our heart's content, creating entire industries out of borrowed money to keep our precious liberal-arts majoring princesses and princes employed. But in the end, there needs to be economic growth to warrant forever increasing asset prices.
In the meantime, keeping tabs on how big a non-producing industry like finance grows as a percent of our overall economy is a pretty good way to tell if the country and its people have any intention of growing up, putting work gloves on, and starting to produce things of genuine economic value,
or,
if we want to continue living in Lala Land where we can all be bankers, we can all be life insurance salesmen, we can all be teachers, and we can all retire on full pensions with forever increasing asset prices at 55.
Enjoy the decline.
Monday, May 18, 2015
Latest Podcast! Max Mad Feminist Road Recap Edition!
38 degrees in Minnesota
The Clarey Family Reunion
The Economics of Wood Cutting
Cappy is objectified by women...and he loves it
People need better sex lives
The Mad Max Feminist Road Drama
The media is no longer the 4th branch of government
AND MORE!
in THIS EPISODE of The Clarey Podcast!
The Clarey Family Reunion
The Economics of Wood Cutting
Cappy is objectified by women...and he loves it
People need better sex lives
The Mad Max Feminist Road Drama
The media is no longer the 4th branch of government
AND MORE!
in THIS EPISODE of The Clarey Podcast!
40 Degree Monday Morning Linkage
Because of my obtuse travel schedule, I am up Monday morning before 9AM. Unfortunately, it is a balmy 40 degrees here in Minnesota, and I'm going to have to fire up the fireplace in the middle of May. In the meantime here's some linkage:
DT and the Man make a point I hadn't thought of - of all the work, research, thought, philosophy and strategem, the world is so petty it focuses on the fact a guy doesn't want to see a feminist movie.
The Damnit Janet Podcast Archives (which I would have linked to earlier had Janet informed me she was putting together a podcast, but NOOOOOOOO, nobody keeps the ole Captain informed!)
DIE YOU ACADEMIA SCUM!!!! DIE!!!!!!!!
Remember Democrats, keep telling yourself "deficits don't matter."
When lefties start businesses.
Mr. Muir gives me a hat tip.
New podcast on the Podcast Roll.
Like father like daughter. Don't ever tell me that race whore represents black people.
DT and the Man make a point I hadn't thought of - of all the work, research, thought, philosophy and strategem, the world is so petty it focuses on the fact a guy doesn't want to see a feminist movie.
The Damnit Janet Podcast Archives (which I would have linked to earlier had Janet informed me she was putting together a podcast, but NOOOOOOOO, nobody keeps the ole Captain informed!)
DIE YOU ACADEMIA SCUM!!!! DIE!!!!!!!!
Remember Democrats, keep telling yourself "deficits don't matter."
When lefties start businesses.
Mr. Muir gives me a hat tip.
New podcast on the Podcast Roll.
Like father like daughter. Don't ever tell me that race whore represents black people.
Saturday, May 16, 2015
But Is Mad Max Fury Road Feminist?
Naturally you all know about the international hubbub I caused by daring to say,
"I don't want to watch a movie that has a feminist lecture in it."
However, no matter how much cursing and swearing and calling me an international professional misogynist occurs, it doesn't moot the question - Is Mad Max Fury Road what I feared it would be? A feminist film?
I have a couple buddies who are going to see the movie, but I know some of you have as well. So for those of us on the fence (or just curious as to whether I was right and called this one like I did the housing bubble) please report back in the comments section below.
"I don't want to watch a movie that has a feminist lecture in it."
However, no matter how much cursing and swearing and calling me an international professional misogynist occurs, it doesn't moot the question - Is Mad Max Fury Road what I feared it would be? A feminist film?
I have a couple buddies who are going to see the movie, but I know some of you have as well. So for those of us on the fence (or just curious as to whether I was right and called this one like I did the housing bubble) please report back in the comments section below.
Wednesday, May 13, 2015
Why Entrepreneurship May Be the Only Feasible Retirement Plan
I had faced a problem.
For the first time in a while, the ole Captain had enough money saved up that he could start thinking about throwing some money in the ole IRA.
You might at first think this is not a problem. But it is, young aspiring economist. It is. For the problem facing anybody under 65 who still has a bit of life expectancy left is:
Precisely what do you invest your money in?
All of you know my general concern that money coming from:
1. Retirement dollars of baby boomers and Gen X
2. Quantitative easing money being injected into the financial markets and
3. Low interest rates prompting a trillion dollars worth of buy backs
is jacking up stock and other asset prices that there's effectively no good deals out there.
The PE ratio shows the stock market overvalued by almost half:
This results in a dividend yield of LESS THAN 2%
Housing only pays a whopping 4% today (and that's if you don't consider repairs and expenses)
And even an investment like education increasingly fails to generate the returns necessary to validate it.
Alas, today's investor is faced with the following effective REAL rates of return:
Stocks 0%
Savings -1%
Real Estate 2-3%
Education - HA HA HA HA HA!!!!!
Now naturally, many of you are saying,
"Wait! 0%??? The stock market has been booming!!! How do you get 0%?"
Well, inquiring young mind, I'll tell you.
You see, there is no such thing as capital gains. The real rate of return stocks (or any other investment for that matter) provides is the income or profit is generates.
Housing generates rents
Bond generate interest
And stocks generate dividends
However, ever since we thought it'd be a grand idea to designate stocks, bonds and other marketable securities as the default investments for our IRA's and 401k's back in 1978, stocks have gone up NOT based on their profitability, but by simply how many trillions of dollars-worth of mindless sheeple's money they throw into their 401k's accounts every paycheck.
Microsoft hasn't paid a dividend since it's existence?
Screw it, buy more. The price might go up!
The S&P pays less than a Kaazaa account?
Screw it, buy more! The price might go up!
Tinder or Twitter don't generate income at all!!!???
Screw it, buy more! The price might go up! IT'S AN IPO!!!
And so why we see the above ABYSMAL and PETTY REAL rates of return for the various asset classes.
So where precisely is somebody who demands an adequate rate of return to invest their money?
Sadly, it looks like entrepreneurship may be the only place to go.
It wasn't until I was having a conversation with my dad while running did I notice that even with all the tax benefits and government incentives to invest in IRA's and 401k's, the best use of my money is sadly to reinvest it in my various ventures.
If I drop $500 advertising my books on the Tom Leykis Show, I on average double my money.
If I drop $100 advertising Asshole Consulting on Viva la Manosphere, I get about a 60% rate of return.
And if I drop $200 running ads on Marginal Revolution for my books, I get about a 70% rate of return.
Naturally of course, I don't enjoy any of the tax benefits on these investments that come with the government ordained IRA's and 401k's.
But so what? Even adjusting for taxes, investing in your own private ventures generates MUCH higher rates of return than the government approved investments for your retirement account.
Tom Leykis post tax rate of return = 75%
Stocks (still) = 0%
Viva La Manosphere post tax rate of return = 45%
Bonds = 1.2%
Marginal Revolution post tax rate of return = 50%
Real estate = (post property taxes, repairs, insurance, etc.) -5%
Now naturally key to all of this is to get a product or a business in place where expending such money on advertising, equipment, etc., would generate such returns. And I will be the first to admit that that is not easy. For every successful business I have, I have at least 2-3 that have failed, and that says nothing of the labor put into researching, trying and deploying these ideas. But all those drawbacks aside, returns are so non-existent in today's financial markets, you may not have a choice. It is a mathematical impossibility to rely on today's conventional retirement planning tenet of "compounding rates of return" when those rates are effectively at or near 0%. Ergo, it practically behooves you to have your hand at entrepreneurship and see if you can't make up your retirement from scratch.
Of course, most people will point out and say, "Not everybody can be entrepreneurs! If we all became entrepreneurs there'd be no workers or economy!"
Thankfully, nowhere near "everybody" reads Captain Capitalism.
Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go and work on my next business idea.
For the first time in a while, the ole Captain had enough money saved up that he could start thinking about throwing some money in the ole IRA.
You might at first think this is not a problem. But it is, young aspiring economist. It is. For the problem facing anybody under 65 who still has a bit of life expectancy left is:
Precisely what do you invest your money in?
All of you know my general concern that money coming from:
1. Retirement dollars of baby boomers and Gen X
2. Quantitative easing money being injected into the financial markets and
3. Low interest rates prompting a trillion dollars worth of buy backs
is jacking up stock and other asset prices that there's effectively no good deals out there.
The PE ratio shows the stock market overvalued by almost half:
This results in a dividend yield of LESS THAN 2%
Housing only pays a whopping 4% today (and that's if you don't consider repairs and expenses)
And even an investment like education increasingly fails to generate the returns necessary to validate it.
Alas, today's investor is faced with the following effective REAL rates of return:
Stocks 0%
Savings -1%
Real Estate 2-3%
Education - HA HA HA HA HA!!!!!
Now naturally, many of you are saying,
"Wait! 0%??? The stock market has been booming!!! How do you get 0%?"
Well, inquiring young mind, I'll tell you.
You see, there is no such thing as capital gains. The real rate of return stocks (or any other investment for that matter) provides is the income or profit is generates.
Housing generates rents
Bond generate interest
And stocks generate dividends
However, ever since we thought it'd be a grand idea to designate stocks, bonds and other marketable securities as the default investments for our IRA's and 401k's back in 1978, stocks have gone up NOT based on their profitability, but by simply how many trillions of dollars-worth of mindless sheeple's money they throw into their 401k's accounts every paycheck.
Microsoft hasn't paid a dividend since it's existence?
Screw it, buy more. The price might go up!
The S&P pays less than a Kaazaa account?
Screw it, buy more! The price might go up!
Tinder or Twitter don't generate income at all!!!???
Screw it, buy more! The price might go up! IT'S AN IPO!!!
And so why we see the above ABYSMAL and PETTY REAL rates of return for the various asset classes.
So where precisely is somebody who demands an adequate rate of return to invest their money?
Sadly, it looks like entrepreneurship may be the only place to go.
It wasn't until I was having a conversation with my dad while running did I notice that even with all the tax benefits and government incentives to invest in IRA's and 401k's, the best use of my money is sadly to reinvest it in my various ventures.
If I drop $500 advertising my books on the Tom Leykis Show, I on average double my money.
If I drop $100 advertising Asshole Consulting on Viva la Manosphere, I get about a 60% rate of return.
And if I drop $200 running ads on Marginal Revolution for my books, I get about a 70% rate of return.
Naturally of course, I don't enjoy any of the tax benefits on these investments that come with the government ordained IRA's and 401k's.
But so what? Even adjusting for taxes, investing in your own private ventures generates MUCH higher rates of return than the government approved investments for your retirement account.
Tom Leykis post tax rate of return = 75%
Stocks (still) = 0%
Viva La Manosphere post tax rate of return = 45%
Bonds = 1.2%
Marginal Revolution post tax rate of return = 50%
Real estate = (post property taxes, repairs, insurance, etc.) -5%
Now naturally key to all of this is to get a product or a business in place where expending such money on advertising, equipment, etc., would generate such returns. And I will be the first to admit that that is not easy. For every successful business I have, I have at least 2-3 that have failed, and that says nothing of the labor put into researching, trying and deploying these ideas. But all those drawbacks aside, returns are so non-existent in today's financial markets, you may not have a choice. It is a mathematical impossibility to rely on today's conventional retirement planning tenet of "compounding rates of return" when those rates are effectively at or near 0%. Ergo, it practically behooves you to have your hand at entrepreneurship and see if you can't make up your retirement from scratch.
Of course, most people will point out and say, "Not everybody can be entrepreneurs! If we all became entrepreneurs there'd be no workers or economy!"
Thankfully, nowhere near "everybody" reads Captain Capitalism.
Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go and work on my next business idea.
My Response to the "Fury" Over "Mad Max: Feminist Road"
If you didn't know, a piece I wrote at ROK went viral and now I am of course being accused being a misogynist, woman hater simply because I refused to see Mad Max: Fury Road in fear of receiving yet another unwanted feminist or social justice lecture from Hollywood. Instead of answering all the requests for interviews (which no doubt would be butchered), I'm simply putting this video up as my official response to the media
However, despite the hubbub and drama, I am rapidly being proven right. The movie is increasingly looking like a feminist film, and so to (if you'll forgive the term) "raise awareness" to this fact I started a hashtag on twitter that I hope catches on. #madmaxfeministroad Hopefully, (unless the movie proves otherwise) we can save a lot of people a lot of money and a lot of time, and again, I am more than happy to watch the movie if it proves NOT to have a lecture on feminism or SJWing, etc. in it.
(I might also add that this is how you handle the liberal media, in case any spineless conservative politicians needed a couple pointers.)
However, despite the hubbub and drama, I am rapidly being proven right. The movie is increasingly looking like a feminist film, and so to (if you'll forgive the term) "raise awareness" to this fact I started a hashtag on twitter that I hope catches on. #madmaxfeministroad Hopefully, (unless the movie proves otherwise) we can save a lot of people a lot of money and a lot of time, and again, I am more than happy to watch the movie if it proves NOT to have a lecture on feminism or SJWing, etc. in it.
(I might also add that this is how you handle the liberal media, in case any spineless conservative politicians needed a couple pointers.)
Tuesday, May 12, 2015
Hiring Writers
Howdy All,
Alex over at Academic Composition is hiring writers. It's a great way to work on a beach in Thailand or traveling Europe while making decent coin. Here are the details:
Alex over at Academic Composition is hiring writers. It's a great way to work on a beach in Thailand or traveling Europe while making decent coin. Here are the details:
1. Considerable experience writing college papers. While a college degree
is not necessary, I'll need some evidence that they are capable of doing
quality academic work.
2. Ability to write over 50 pages per week on any subject other than STEM.
3. Willingness to thoroughly with all of the professor's requirements.
What's in it for the writer?
1. Minimal compensation: $10 per page, but my full-time writers generally
earn between $600 and $700 per week.
2. Flexible work hours, no rigid schedule. All it matters is that you
complete all of the work you take on. Yes, I would prefer to have a writer
who outputs 50 pages per week, but quality writers are hard to find. Hence,
I am willing to work with anyone who does good work on time.
3. Prospects for a higher pay-out. Full-time writers have been the pivotal
factor behind the recent growth of Academic Composition. Hence, it is very
likely that my per page rate compensatory rate will soon increase.
4. Managerial responsibilities. Full-time writers can procure additional
compensation by managing part-timers.
Aleksey Bashtavenko
Academic Composition
Owner & Principal Writer
(540) 300-1253
academiccomposition@gmail.com
www.academiccomposition.com
www.linkedin.com/pub/aleksey-bashtavenko/25/7b8/323/
Episode #94 of The Clarey Podcast is Out!
Beard hairs caught in chest hairs
Independent contractor is superior to being an employee
Silver Dollar Bikini and why it means conservatives have better sex lives
Kanye West and American college students deserve each other
St. Louis Park wants to ban plastic bags
and MORE in THIS EPISODE of The Clarey Podcast!
Independent contractor is superior to being an employee
Silver Dollar Bikini and why it means conservatives have better sex lives
Kanye West and American college students deserve each other
St. Louis Park wants to ban plastic bags
and MORE in THIS EPISODE of The Clarey Podcast!
Monday, May 11, 2015
Monday Night Linkage
You're putting the cart before the horse. You have replaced men with government. Men now have no agency in the real world, so they will seek it in a digital world.
An older man gives a younger girl some advice...and she actually listens!
Matt Forney interviews a girl about living in Chicago. She inevitably gets to the point.
Putin, the privatization of Soviet assets in the 1990's, the oligarchs, and how it's the west to blame.
Department of HHS defines fathers to include "men living with your mom." Heaven help us.
"Special needs" is the new vehicle by which a whole new victim class will be forming.
An older man gives a younger girl some advice...and she actually listens!
Matt Forney interviews a girl about living in Chicago. She inevitably gets to the point.
Putin, the privatization of Soviet assets in the 1990's, the oligarchs, and how it's the west to blame.
Department of HHS defines fathers to include "men living with your mom." Heaven help us.
"Special needs" is the new vehicle by which a whole new victim class will be forming.
Mad Max: Feminist Road
But let us be clear. This is the vehicle by which they are guaranteed to
force a lecture on feminism down your throat. This is the Trojan Horse
feminists and Hollywood leftists will use to (vainly) insist on the
trope women are equal to men in all things, including physique,
strength, and logic. And this is the subterfuge they will use to blur
the lines between masculinity and femininity, further ruining women for
men, and men for women.
from my latest piece at ROK.
from my latest piece at ROK.
Sunday, May 10, 2015
"In the Hands of 16 Year Olds Everywhere"
Yes, yes, I do sound like Randall from "Clerks"
From an Amazon review of Bachelor Pad Economics:
This book is one of the most practical life guides that I've had the privilege to read. Aaron Clary does not mince words, and I love that he addresses the idea that having kids is a CHOICE, not a necessity. He gets really gritty and if you're overly sensitive he just may ruffle your feathers. Literally every aspect of life is covered, from worthless degrees to the decline of western civilization. He is a true man in a wilderness of wildly feminine life advice. His podcast is amazing, as well, so I'd highly advise that you check it out. He sounds like Randal from Clerks and he is just as hilarious, but also mixes in solid economics and live advice. 10 thumbs up. If this book could be placed in the hands of 16 year olds everywhere, civilization might have a chance to survive.
From an Amazon review of Bachelor Pad Economics:
This book is one of the most practical life guides that I've had the privilege to read. Aaron Clary does not mince words, and I love that he addresses the idea that having kids is a CHOICE, not a necessity. He gets really gritty and if you're overly sensitive he just may ruffle your feathers. Literally every aspect of life is covered, from worthless degrees to the decline of western civilization. He is a true man in a wilderness of wildly feminine life advice. His podcast is amazing, as well, so I'd highly advise that you check it out. He sounds like Randal from Clerks and he is just as hilarious, but also mixes in solid economics and live advice. 10 thumbs up. If this book could be placed in the hands of 16 year olds everywhere, civilization might have a chance to survive.
Saturday, May 09, 2015
Fake Rape! It's Fun!
Tee hee! I'm a rape victim! Tee hee! Pay me attention!
I love how they still paint her as a victim and is in need of help.
I love how they still paint her as a victim and is in need of help.
Friday, May 08, 2015
Bad News for "Round House Kicking Chick-Cop Shows"
Oh no, "State of Affiars" got the ax along with some other female dramas Round House Kicking Chick Cop Shows.
Could it possibly be overkill maybe?
No, no, never can have too many shows about a strong, independent 43 year old woman portrayed by a 31 year old actress, who can beat up 6'4" Russian mafia body guards with a cool government job, and a license to kill, but a soft side as she is torn between the rich oligarch silicon valley billionaire, and the strong, dangerous, ripped automechanic who does underground racing to raise the money for his cancer-ridden 6 year old daughter.
I miss Hogan's Heroes.
Could it possibly be overkill maybe?
No, no, never can have too many shows about a strong, independent 43 year old woman portrayed by a 31 year old actress, who can beat up 6'4" Russian mafia body guards with a cool government job, and a license to kill, but a soft side as she is torn between the rich oligarch silicon valley billionaire, and the strong, dangerous, ripped automechanic who does underground racing to raise the money for his cancer-ridden 6 year old daughter.
I miss Hogan's Heroes.
Le Cordon Bleu Scam School Finally Ending
This is one of the scam colleges I taught at. Good to see the education bubble claiming such a worthless and evil victim.
Thursday, May 07, 2015
Silver Dollar Bikini and Race Relations in the US
Was interviewed by Kerry Lutz yesterday where I announced my newest project: The Silver Dollar Bikini.
I am waiting on a model for pics and other media to start effectively advertising it, but the website is up and functional (though incomplete).
Should have a couple photos of it up soon.
I am waiting on a model for pics and other media to start effectively advertising it, but the website is up and functional (though incomplete).
Should have a couple photos of it up soon.
Wednesday, May 06, 2015
I'm Officially Predicting Recession...But...
Settle in young junior, deputy, aspiring, official or otherwise economists! For we're going to have a quick lesson in economics that will help advance your understanding of this here US economy.
The "Inventory to Sales" ratio is a seemingly boring measure. It takes the inventory of all the companies in the US and divides it by all those companies' sales. You might ask, "why would they do this?" and the reason is very simple:
To predict recessions.
The reason this ratio has a decent track record of predicting recessions is because it measures future demand for labor.
How?
Well to produce inventory companies need to hire labor. And as these products are sold, the inventory goes down, requiring said inventory to be replenished, demanding further labor. But if demand is low or sales are down, that inventory has a tendency to build up. And when inventory builds up that is bad news for employees because with excess inventory why would you hire any additional labor? Worse, if you have too much inventory, you might as well lay people off because you don't even need to replenish your inventory.
And so to measure this relative demand to inventory they came up with the inventory to sales ratio. And it's not good:
The first thing you'll notice is the huge spike in the ratio during the Great Recession. The other thing you'll notice is the general downward trend in this ratio. This does not mean we are in a constant state of lower and lower risk of recession, but rather inventory management techniques and technologies have improved lowering this ratio over time.
But what is particularly concerning is the recent trend upward in the past 2 years, along with a spike in the past 3 months. Technically speaking, this is the second worst spike in the ratio's history and rarely does the economy NOT fall into recession when inventories build up this much.
Some of this has already come to fruition. GDP for the first quarter of 2015 was a paltry .2%. Labor force productivity is down this month. And job growth is sclerotic. But we haven't technically entered recession territory yet. Why?
Well, many people in this realm of the internet would claim we never recovered from the Great Recession. And such cynicism is validated when you look at labor force participation, lower wages, and the lack of booming economic growth that usually follows a bust. However, while we effectively may be in what "feels" like a recession and politicians brag about "green shoots" (but never full grown trees) in this economy, there is another reason we just "aren't crashing" like logic and reason would suggest.
The US dollar is the world's reserve currency.
In having the world's reserve currency this allows us to borrow and spend like Greeks, but without suffering any of the nasty economic consequences. This allows the government to keep taxes artificially low, while pumping the economy full of government spending. The result is a stale, uninspiring, and "blah" type economy where the real producers and innovators in the economy are not incentived to produce GDP, but steroid government spending artificially inflates economic growth figures. Throw in the fact said government money (be it social spending or Federal Reserve QE) ends up NOT in genuine investments, but asset bubbles (housing, stock market, education, etc.) and now you can see why we have an economy with effectively 0% real economic growth, but a stock market that is on its way to trebling from it's 2008 lows.
The problem this presents to economists, however, is one of prediction. By all measures and means we should be in recession. And if we were to take away the broken-window-fallacy spending of Obama's entire tenure, I almost guarantee you we never left the Great Recession. But now that the government has limitless spending due to our reserve currency status, it can artificially pump up GDP, masking the real economy.
Ergo, I am predicting recession next quarter. But don't expect to see two serious negative quarters of economic growth. Like Japan the US will spend the next 20 years never giving its people incentive to produce GDP, but never letting the economy go into full blown recession.
The "Inventory to Sales" ratio is a seemingly boring measure. It takes the inventory of all the companies in the US and divides it by all those companies' sales. You might ask, "why would they do this?" and the reason is very simple:
To predict recessions.
The reason this ratio has a decent track record of predicting recessions is because it measures future demand for labor.
How?
Well to produce inventory companies need to hire labor. And as these products are sold, the inventory goes down, requiring said inventory to be replenished, demanding further labor. But if demand is low or sales are down, that inventory has a tendency to build up. And when inventory builds up that is bad news for employees because with excess inventory why would you hire any additional labor? Worse, if you have too much inventory, you might as well lay people off because you don't even need to replenish your inventory.
And so to measure this relative demand to inventory they came up with the inventory to sales ratio. And it's not good:
The first thing you'll notice is the huge spike in the ratio during the Great Recession. The other thing you'll notice is the general downward trend in this ratio. This does not mean we are in a constant state of lower and lower risk of recession, but rather inventory management techniques and technologies have improved lowering this ratio over time.
But what is particularly concerning is the recent trend upward in the past 2 years, along with a spike in the past 3 months. Technically speaking, this is the second worst spike in the ratio's history and rarely does the economy NOT fall into recession when inventories build up this much.
Some of this has already come to fruition. GDP for the first quarter of 2015 was a paltry .2%. Labor force productivity is down this month. And job growth is sclerotic. But we haven't technically entered recession territory yet. Why?
Well, many people in this realm of the internet would claim we never recovered from the Great Recession. And such cynicism is validated when you look at labor force participation, lower wages, and the lack of booming economic growth that usually follows a bust. However, while we effectively may be in what "feels" like a recession and politicians brag about "green shoots" (but never full grown trees) in this economy, there is another reason we just "aren't crashing" like logic and reason would suggest.
The US dollar is the world's reserve currency.
In having the world's reserve currency this allows us to borrow and spend like Greeks, but without suffering any of the nasty economic consequences. This allows the government to keep taxes artificially low, while pumping the economy full of government spending. The result is a stale, uninspiring, and "blah" type economy where the real producers and innovators in the economy are not incentived to produce GDP, but steroid government spending artificially inflates economic growth figures. Throw in the fact said government money (be it social spending or Federal Reserve QE) ends up NOT in genuine investments, but asset bubbles (housing, stock market, education, etc.) and now you can see why we have an economy with effectively 0% real economic growth, but a stock market that is on its way to trebling from it's 2008 lows.
The problem this presents to economists, however, is one of prediction. By all measures and means we should be in recession. And if we were to take away the broken-window-fallacy spending of Obama's entire tenure, I almost guarantee you we never left the Great Recession. But now that the government has limitless spending due to our reserve currency status, it can artificially pump up GDP, masking the real economy.
Ergo, I am predicting recession next quarter. But don't expect to see two serious negative quarters of economic growth. Like Japan the US will spend the next 20 years never giving its people incentive to produce GDP, but never letting the economy go into full blown recession.
Tuesday, May 05, 2015
Joss Whedon Proves Agreeing With Leftist Women Won't Get You Laid
There was a big kerfuffle going on as the Millennial generation of spoiled children (primarily girls) got all upset because Joss Whedon killed off a female character in the (largely) crappy movies series "The Avengers." Because Joss dared to kill off a female character he received a torrent of hatemail, accusations of sexism, misogyny, not to mention death threats.
To that I say,
boo
freaking
hoo
Joss Whedon, though a talented director, is unfortunately a very common and typical non-thinking denizen of Hollywood, espousing leftist, liberal political views, feminism of which is included.
And now the nerd-come-popular director is suffering the fate of his own voting.
This isn't a lengthy post, because it doesn't have to be.
Joss Whedon supported socialism, leftism and feminism. And now he is suffering directly for it. Despite his support, the petty women that constitute today's modern leftist, feminist Millennial generation are angry he KILLED OFF A FICTIONAL CHARACTER IN HIS OWN GOD DAMNED MOVIE. So much so they are threatening his life.
I doubt this political lesson will penetrate his head or force him to change his beliefs because ego and leftist religion will trump any person's frontal lobes. But his pain and suffering should prove a valuable lesson to those willing to pay attention:
Agreeing with
Kissing up to
Brown nosing and
Parroting
what feminists and leftist women say
will NOT increase your chances of getting laid.
If anything it will merely get you in trouble.
So do the right thing that men learned looooong ago.
Stand your ground.
Tell women "no"
And do NOT agree with them thinking it will curry favor with them.
Women like men.
Not supplicant, ass-kissing betas like Joss Whedon.
To that I say,
boo
freaking
hoo
Joss Whedon, though a talented director, is unfortunately a very common and typical non-thinking denizen of Hollywood, espousing leftist, liberal political views, feminism of which is included.
And now the nerd-come-popular director is suffering the fate of his own voting.
This isn't a lengthy post, because it doesn't have to be.
Joss Whedon supported socialism, leftism and feminism. And now he is suffering directly for it. Despite his support, the petty women that constitute today's modern leftist, feminist Millennial generation are angry he KILLED OFF A FICTIONAL CHARACTER IN HIS OWN GOD DAMNED MOVIE. So much so they are threatening his life.
I doubt this political lesson will penetrate his head or force him to change his beliefs because ego and leftist religion will trump any person's frontal lobes. But his pain and suffering should prove a valuable lesson to those willing to pay attention:
Agreeing with
Kissing up to
Brown nosing and
Parroting
what feminists and leftist women say
will NOT increase your chances of getting laid.
If anything it will merely get you in trouble.
So do the right thing that men learned looooong ago.
Stand your ground.
Tell women "no"
And do NOT agree with them thinking it will curry favor with them.
Women like men.
Not supplicant, ass-kissing betas like Joss Whedon.
Episode #93 of the Clarey Podcast "Homeless Baby Boomer" Edition!
How hot conservative females have life long employment as YouTubers
It's impossible to help people
Increasing population of homeless baby boomers
Will feminism ruin "Fury Road?"
AND MORE!
In THIS EPISODE of The Clarey Podcast!
It's impossible to help people
Increasing population of homeless baby boomers
Will feminism ruin "Fury Road?"
AND MORE!
In THIS EPISODE of The Clarey Podcast!
Monday, May 04, 2015
Monday Late Night Linkage
Chris Bechtloff has a great podcast addressing many things, but I disagree about the disparaging remarks about gays.
All that empirical street smarts and you still major in stupid shit with the charity and kindness of strangers.
Genuine art where sound replaces words and you'll regret not clicking on this.
Is he sexy now you dumb ass ignorant young American bints?
All that empirical street smarts and you still major in stupid shit with the charity and kindness of strangers.
Genuine art where sound replaces words and you'll regret not clicking on this.
Is he sexy now you dumb ass ignorant young American bints?
Why Charlize Theron Threatens "Fury Road"
Fury Road is coming out and I'm on the hinges as to whether I even want to review it. Despite the trailer's explosions and pure awesomeness, the one thing that keeps me from fully committing is Charlize Theron's character who seems to take the entire leading role. Terribly sorry, I'm done with fake, never-will-happen, female propagandist advertising.
Charlize Theron is a 5'4", 115 pound woman. A reasonably aggressive, medium sized dog could outdo her and have her for dinner. But yet, I'm supposed to sit here and accept the possibility she is the leader of a group of women and is on par with Tom Hardy's character who is the presum-ed replacement for Mel Gibson.
No, not buying it.
I don't care how many explosions and tornadoes you put in your trailer.
I don't care how many "extreme" Aussie characters you have saying "WHAT A LOVELY DAY!!!!"
This entire movie reeks of a politically correct, leftist, feminist propaganda trap to sucker me in, pay my $10 for a ticket, only to walk away saying "WTF, no woman could do that!" as you then include my purchase and millions of other dupes' purchases to say "Fury Road" is the #1 movie in America.
Sorry, not falling for it.
I'm going to wait until the suckers go and see it, read the reviews, and THEN MAYBE contemplate parting with my hard earned money to see it.
In the meantime, I recommend all of you do the same.
Hollywood has desperately tried to court the female audience to the point it has alienated the male audience. I suggest you men grow a pair and wait for the reviews to come out before wasting 3 hours of your life and $20 in tickets to see another "sermon" from Hollywood about "strong, powerful, independent" women.
Charlize Theron is a 5'4", 115 pound woman. A reasonably aggressive, medium sized dog could outdo her and have her for dinner. But yet, I'm supposed to sit here and accept the possibility she is the leader of a group of women and is on par with Tom Hardy's character who is the presum-ed replacement for Mel Gibson.
No, not buying it.
I don't care how many explosions and tornadoes you put in your trailer.
I don't care how many "extreme" Aussie characters you have saying "WHAT A LOVELY DAY!!!!"
This entire movie reeks of a politically correct, leftist, feminist propaganda trap to sucker me in, pay my $10 for a ticket, only to walk away saying "WTF, no woman could do that!" as you then include my purchase and millions of other dupes' purchases to say "Fury Road" is the #1 movie in America.
Sorry, not falling for it.
I'm going to wait until the suckers go and see it, read the reviews, and THEN MAYBE contemplate parting with my hard earned money to see it.
In the meantime, I recommend all of you do the same.
Hollywood has desperately tried to court the female audience to the point it has alienated the male audience. I suggest you men grow a pair and wait for the reviews to come out before wasting 3 hours of your life and $20 in tickets to see another "sermon" from Hollywood about "strong, powerful, independent" women.
The Federal Reserve: Good, Bad, or Just Plain Stupid?
A video request that proved to be a good historical and economic lesson of the Federal Reserve and central banking in general:
Sunday, May 03, 2015
Can Feminists Ever Divorce the Government?
An interesting question/request from a client of Asshole Consulting.
Is feminism a psychological backlash wherein women want equal rights, and "then some" for all the oppression in the past, or does something else drive them?
Something else, son. Something else.
Is feminism a psychological backlash wherein women want equal rights, and "then some" for all the oppression in the past, or does something else drive them?
Something else, son. Something else.
Friday, May 01, 2015
Friday Day Linkage
A feminist political party is like a green party - it shows they don't care about the population and are just a special interest group.
When liberals try to run and business and do math at the same time.
The consequences of artificial wombs.
Most people celebrate Christmas or their anniversary or have lives wherein spending time with their loved ones and families is what they look forward to. This is what professional leftists look forward to in their lives.
When liberals try to run and business and do math at the same time.
The consequences of artificial wombs.
Most people celebrate Christmas or their anniversary or have lives wherein spending time with their loved ones and families is what they look forward to. This is what professional leftists look forward to in their lives.
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