Monday, June 28, 2010

Oh Noes!!!

Please don't take our finite, and thus fundamentally flawed no matter how complex they are, models away from us! Weez needs them so people don't realize our profession is a simple one hiding behind advanced math and SAS programs! Give us money and we'll give you complicated programs with lots of greek symbols!

Online Schools

These teachers are definitely paid differently than those who teach in online schools.

The Escapist

As most of you know I have more or less retired from blogging, making occasional quick posts here and there. If you really want to see genius, read some of my older stuff when I actually thought there might be hope for the country if there was somebody who pulled all the economic data together and spelled it out for people. Now I just chase after Natasha and play video games.

Regardless, there are new people hitting blogosphere and you should check them out. The Escapist is one of them.

Sunday, June 27, 2010

The Definition of Stupid

They're about as smart as our youth in this country. Protesting over increasing the retirement age to (GASP) 62 SO THAT THEY MIGHT ACTUALLY HAVE SOME FREAKING MONEY WHEN IT COMES TIME FOR THEM TO RETIRE!!!!!

Oh, Karl Marx is laughing in his grave right now.

Saturday, June 26, 2010


Is a disease.

More to come. Get your pen and paper ready.

Fort Bachelortude

As the recessionary woes plague the nation your beloved Captain, now on permanent Galt vacation, has had the time to observe a couple trends or phenomenons occurring. Most notably the young man who now sleeps on my couch on account he is a friend and he is in a time of need because, well, his wife is an insufferable pain in the ass. This has resulted in my abode becoming what I like to call "Fort Bachelortude" - an oasis for bachelors as they battle against life's daily onslaughts.

Go to the neighboring town of mine and you will see two other bachelors forming a brother fort on account one of them is a pilot (whose industry is not known for long term, stable employment) and needs just a place to sleep and a stall to shower in. The owner of the house (a bachelor) does not have a wife nor kinder and therefore has an extra room by which he can rent out for very cheap to the pilot bachelor. This is a mutual advantageous relationship in that the room has gone unused and why not generate at least a pittance of rental income while splitting chores.

Of course these are merely anecdotal stories of bachelors shacking up, but enough anecdotes make a trend, and trends make statistical fact, and so allow me a prediction;


Both the pilot and my romantically beleaguered friend are empirical evidence of two traits of society that are going to drive this "bachelor fort" trend. A trend by which bachelors minimize their expenses, just try to get by as cheaply as possible, and therefore form MANLY coops (because most coops are pretty effeminate) of residency by which to save money.

For example my friend who now resides on my couch is suffering from one of society's trend whereby the entire courtship/romance/marriage or whatever you want to call it industry is completely biased and tilted against men. Divorce courts, child custody, and forget law. Just look at the purified hell a young man must go through in the US when it comes to dating the American Idol worshipping prima modannas. Inevitably a man comes to the realization that he is finite and he is going to die. Does he spend his time slaving away to make daddy's little princess happy? Or does he decide to find a couch, play some video games, smoke some cigars, drive a motorcycle and do what he wants to do? I could go into this in infinite detail and no doubt I will receive many complaints from women, but it doesn't change the fact that courting and marriage for the average American male is so horrendous that it should not be surprising that the trend of men opting to never marry will not just continue but increase.

This trend of course is great for Fort Bachelortude in that without a wife demanding a brand new 3 story suburbanite dream home and children crying and screaming and bringing communicable diseases into the house, the sole, lonely bachelor only needs a couch and a bathroom for his living needs.

The second trend is what my pilot buddy faces - unreliable employment. Not because he is an unreliable employee. Oh no no no. Scott Adams has long ago proved corporate America is to blame for the lack of loyal employees. But because employers, for the most part, are just as incompetent as the employees they love to blame their incompentence and quarterly losses on. The WWII generation is no longer at the helm. It's the baby boomers at the helm, the even-more-entitlement-mentality-driven Gen X'ers seeping into middle management, and the even-more-entitled-than-that Millinials at the entry level. And you people wonder why there's 10% unemployment and no private sector growth.

Regardless, this poses a quandry for your conventional bachelor. Simply;


You also combine that with the fact that this latest recession has disproportionately affected men more than women to the point it's called the "mancession" it leaves a populus of bachelors out there looking to minimize expenses as much as possible. This drives American men NOT to go back home and live with mom at the age of 40 (like many of our southern European counterparts do), but rather shack up with other impoverished bachelors to pool resources and share expenses.

Now at first, most people would look at this and say, "My god, what a bad thing. How could this be happening?" But permit me a couple observations.

First, bachelors, if they're real tough, traditional American men, do not have their lives nor base their lives on their homestead. Their lives are defined by what they do OUTSIDE of their place of sleep. Ergo, a single male WHO HAS NO KIDS, does not call home "where he rests his head" but rather "home" is his network of friends, his hobbies and what defines him as a man. And whlie in our ignorant youth some of us may have thought a house in the suburbs with a June Cleaver wife (who was actually pretty hot by the way) was the "goal" as we've aged we've realized there's more to life than just doing what literally billions of people have done before us. And instead of having the majority of our finances tied up paying for a mortgage and family we can't afford, with minimal living expense and a lot of free time (thanks Barack!) we can now actaully pursue interests and hobbies that interest us. This is the key thing to Fort Bachelortude - trading labor for leisure. Since there are no jobs, if we can master the art of cost-minimalization, we can enjoy a higher standard of living at a much lower income in that we have all that much more free time.

Second, Fort Bachelortude is not a frat house. I'm not talking about a bunch of rowdy teenagers, getting drunk, living off of daddy's dime while they major in "business." I'm talking men in their 30's and 40's who can actually shack up without any drama or chaos about who left the puking donkey in the living room. Men who are forced to join Fort Bachelortude are much more mature and make any kind of traditional roomate dramas a thing of the past.

Thirdly, it forces bachelors to rethink what's really important in life. I know women are not going to like this, but men, you are a factor too. And not just any factor, a very important factor. Matter of fact a completely necessary factor in by that default you are 1/2 the factor. Your life and your happiness should come first as long as it does not expense or hurt somebody in the process. I know we've been trained to put family and household ahead of us, but please. That doctrine was established in the 40's and died once conventional feminism took hold. There is a whole world out there for you to explore, and as I mentioned before in point #1, you may be forced through divorce or dumping, combined with economic realities, to not just minimize expenses, but that you will also have a wake up call forced upon you. If you have such minimal resources to pay for your living, what are the most important things for you to spend your money on?

In other words, Fort Bachelortude is not just a means by which you get cheap rent and your landlord buddy gets beer money, it makes you take inventory of your life and ask how do you want to spend it.

Now the ramifications of this trend are very politically incorrect. Men just going and doing what they want? MEN abandoning the courting/dating/marrying market and pursuing hobbies of leisure? Men not walking up the isle and instead just renting a room in the basement of some other heathen bachelor while he plays video games all day???

Sadly (or perhaps maybe happily) yes.

For you see, men don't really have a choice. The economy has been feminized to the point safety is put ahead of any kind of innovation or production. Equality is more important than excellence. And harmony has replaced competition. This is not a welcoming environment to the traditional American male simply because it goes against a male's nature. And when this is the environment a male doesn't go forth and try to produce huge amounts of production or start up a new company or become the next Tony Stark, because...well...why should he? (First, he can't, second, you'd tax him to death) Instead, and this is the real threat to the conventional way American thinks, what if the real men of society, just plain gave up, decided to play video games, decided to minimize expenses, and never work hard again? What if they stopped marrying, working, and instead put their own happiness ahead of everybody else's and simply pursued a life of leisure and hobbies that they wanted? What would be the long term economic consequences if such a large percentage of the labor force just plain gave up or didn't try their best anymore?

I'll let that thought fester in your mind, in the meantime, doors are open at Fort Bachelortude. BYOB.

Friday, June 25, 2010

Non-Ivy League Observations

Was having an e-mail conversation with a student and noticed this might be worth posting;

"Yes, correct. I tune into CNBC every once in a while and I'm amazed how in general the gurus of Wall Street have horse blinders on. They look at financial statements, they look at balance sheets, they run their little models and they only look at the industry. They never go BEYOND the industry and incorporate the ecnomy.

What is ironic about this is (ESPECIALLY in the past 4 years) the majority of stock price movement has had NOTHING to do with individual companies, but rather the overall economy. Even with the housing bubble, subsequent crash, debt crises in Europe, these Wall Street drones just keep looking at the industry and drone on.

You could also see it in the build up to the housing market bubble. Economists such as Shiller, Roubini, not to mention my humble self, were trying to warn people and banks about the housing bubble, but all the TOP FINANCIAL GENIUSES AT THE TOP FINANCIAL FIRMS DIDN'T SEE IT COMING. I remember the chief risk officer of Merrill Lynch (I think) being interviewed by The Economist about 2007 and he was quoted as saying, "We looked forward, didn't see any risks to the economy." I was sitting there thinking, "How on earth did you NOT see any risks?"

Well, again the reason is they're trained as Ivy league MBA's to just do DCF, look at what they've always done and ignore the larger economic picture.

I'm afraid, given what I see on CNBC, these geniuses are still missing the boat. The larger economic threats are debt, a "perma-retirement" bubble in the stock market, and scloretic eocnomic growth that will impair entitlement programs in the future and undermine the entire retirement planning philosophy (ie-the stock market may not grow by 12.5% per year "like it always has.")

Of course, I don't have enough gray hair and went to just a Big 10 school, but your observations of where their analysis was lacking was indeed spot on."

Again, my services are available for the now failing, taxpayer-bailed-out bulge bracket investment banks who eschew those icky gross Non-Ivy-League commoners - at a premium of course.

Thursday, June 24, 2010

A Cartman Moment

There is no limit to the number of men and women I run into who upon finding out that I ballroom dance on the side are immediately intrigued and interested. I then say, "well, why don't you come out dancing with me and my friends? Or perhaps take a class?"

To which they predictably respond, "oh, well I don't know how to dance."

And thus I feel like Cartman talking to Butters in the episode "Make Love, Not Warcraft" (see here).

You see (ladies and gentlemen who are interested in dancing but then never take a dance class because you innately don't know how) you CAN'T LEARN TO DANCE UNLESS YOU EITHER TAKE A CLASS OR GO OUT AND TRY!!!

I file my complaint today primarily because of the lost amount of fun people could have if they just went out and at least TRIED dancing. They're missing out a great world simply because they somehow magically think all ballroom, swing and salsa dancers somehow were just born dancing and we never ever had to train or learn the basic steps in the first place. As if just after college, BOOM, the Magic Salsa Fairy took her wand and went "pwaaaaannng!!! You can now dance, Captain!"

The other reason I bring this up is for the younger men in the Capposphere. I have retired from the courtship/dating game and now never ask a girl I don't know to dance. And the reason is simple - they always say the same thing - "Well, I'd love to, but I don't know how?"

This you understand has happened at least a hundred times in my life. But understand the irony of it.

The Young (and highly accomplished ballroom-dancing) Captain, goes up to girl X. There is a nice open wood dance floor. There is a GREAT band playing. And everybody is dressed to the nines looking sharp.

I say to girl X, "Girl X, would you like to dance?"

She says "I'd love to, but I don't know how" to the ballroom dance INSTRUCTOR.

"Well I'll show you how to dance" says the ballroom dance INSTRUCTOR.

"Oh, well I don't know the moves." invariably says girl X.

"Yes, but that is why I would SHOW YOU THE MOVES" says the ballroom dance INSTRUCTOR.

By that time inevitably the situation deteriorates to a cackle of girls are wooing and giggling, pointing to one another jesting the other should dance with the "foolish" dance instructor, who leaves the table and takes with him what was a genuine and great opportunity for these girls to learn to dance.

So to the younger ballroom-dancing men in the Capposphere - don't bother asking girls to dance unless it is at a bonafide ballroom dance and they are bonafide dancers. You're just wasting your time.

Regardless, the overall lesson for the aspiring, junior, deputy, official or otherwise economists out there is to just try dancing ONCE. Go take a class, especially if you don't know how, because that's why you take a class. Or if you're particualrly shy, the Captain does sell instructional DVD's which you can practice to in the security and safety of your own home. And ladies, the dirty little secret of the ballroom dance world is that you don't even need to take a class because there is no limit to the number of men who like to use it as a means by which to hopefully get your number or pick you up.

Alas, I fear I shall still be Cartman in this regard.

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Oh am I Good

See, now it's legitimate. BEforehand I was just a crazy kook, now since the WSJ has ordained this as a possibility, I am a visionary.

Enjoy the Decline!

You mean all that monetary policy, low interest rates and stimulus hasn't made my house worth millions?

Enjoy the decline!

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Ooo! Spank!

Those blasted forefathers and their "balance of powers!" Don't they know who I am!!!

Monday, June 21, 2010

Bugs Bunny, Bugs Bunny, RAH RAH RAH!

I was going to write something intelligent and insightful and then I realized too high a percentage of the population is too damn stupid to listen to what I say anyway. That being said, I refuse to degrade myself to an American Idol level of stupidity and entertainment, so permit me to post this so those of you in the Capposphere may enjoy an intelligent yet entertaining post.

But He Means Well

And intentions are all that matter in the world of the left.

Sunday, June 20, 2010

Fun Fed Charts!

Today's exciting economic charts are brought to you today by the US Federal Reserve!

Your thought of the day:

"How much lost economic production have we have lost because 10% of the labor force is unemployed


not just unemployed, but unemployed for a longer period of time than ever recorded


also considering the labor force participation rate is going down?"

Enjoy the decline!

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Stock Market Valuation

Read the following as if you were a suburbanite young girl who always speaks as if she's asking a question;

So like, I think I should um, like invest in my 401k????

Becuase um, like the HR person said it was good thing to doooooo???

And, um like, I'll buy a stock and it will, like, you know, go up?????

Because that's what I've been told and everybody should be throwing their, um, hard earned money into the stock market because the government said we should???

But then again, never listen to me. What do I know.

Wells Fargo Wouldn't Do That Now Would They?

I remember my youth working at Wells Fargo where the text on my computer screen was green. I also remember having to print off reports on a DOT MATRIX COMPUTER. We would then fax these reports long distance to bankers in far away lands. This was the year 1998 when not only did laser printers exist, but so did scanners and this new-fangled thing called "e-mail" with brand "Attachment Capability."

I was foolish enough to suggest that they spend some money on some new PC's, have the IT set everybody up with e-mail, get a couple scanners and we could save some money and time. I also did a NPV calculation to prove how much it would increase not just the net worth of the company, but for each share.

I was summarily told I did not run the company and I was to get back to data entry and filing.

Later that year the bank closed down that branch and fired everybody, but not before I quit and went back to working security at nights (which is a great job by the way because nobody is around to bicker and moan about how you do your job).

Good to see Wells Fargo still has great minds at work for them

Monday, June 14, 2010

Now That's Not Nice

Pointing out Obama's fiscal policy has failed. How dare he!

And as always, enjoy the decline!

Consult the Captain

Hello fellow Aspiring, Junior, Deputy, Official or otherwise Economists!

As you know your beloved Captain is gifted with Super-Awesome Economic Genius. And as you know your humble Captain dispenses this Super-Awesome Economic Genius on a regular basis on this here blog. However, a couple of you have recently contracted the Captain out for specific or unique consulting projects which has prompted him to officially offer his consulting services to anybody who may be in need.

The range of services can entail anything from general personal financial advice to specific and unique corporate projects. Most of it has been personal financial advice to help navigate and prepare for these difficult economic times, but as you've seen from the blog we here at the Capposphere cover pretty much everything.

Pricing is done on a project by project basis, and yes, the Captain is going to charge enough to make it worth his while. However, it will be nowhere near as pricey as Bain, McKinsey or Accenture and it will be infinitely better (simply on account they do not have Super Awesome Economic Genius, let alone independent thought).

So shoot the ole Captain an e-mail if you have a question or a problem that needs resolving and we'll see if we can't help you out!

CAPTcapitalism - a.t. - yahoo dot com

Wednesday, June 09, 2010

Pha! Laffer! What Does He Know!

Enjoy the decline!


I wonder how much tuition would drop by if we ended all the worthless programs that give the kiddies worthless degrees and just left engineering, accounting and the sciences at the U of MN.

Of course this is laughable because it's little Susie's and little Jimmy's right to go to college, have their "college experience," while majoring in a hobby with no employment or productive prospects in the future, all while having it subsidized by the taxpayer.

Enjoy the decline!

Monday, June 07, 2010

Go Back to Organizing Communities

I bet, I just bet, there's a lot of people ruing the fact that they not so much voted for this incompetent child, but that they got caught up in such frivolous tomfoolery as "nice pecs" and "hope and change."

I'll try to be as simple and direct as possible.

In the real world, you have real problems that require adult attention and action. And when you're nothing more than a trust fund baby brat, with no galvanizing, harsh, real world experiences-say like working to support yourself-, you (no matter what your age) are nothing more than a child faking it as long as possible before the population realizes you are not an adult and are supremely incompetent to handle any responsibility, especially the tonnage of responsibility known as the presidency of the United States.

And it must be a huge blow to the ego to realize the only reason you're president is because society has degraded to such a point that a bunch of dolts watching "American Idol" who thought you had nice pecs and were "cool" voted for you quite simply on those grounds.

Regardless, enjoy the decline! I'm going fishing!


At the 6:40 mark you can insert "until the unions ruined it and now nobody is employed in Hibbing."

Friday, June 04, 2010

A Home Work Assignment for Any Cappy Cap Reader That Wants It

Driving around the Lake Minnetonka area today because, well, what else do you do on a 78 degree day when there is no work to do and while listening to the news I slowly saw the Dow drop 100, 200 and then 300 points and then had an interesting thought.

"Based on the number of retirees, pensioners, present and future, and considering the amount of money being invested in the stock market, and based on average life expectancies and cost of living requirements, how much will the stock market have to go up by in order for traditional retirement plans to succeed?"

In all of my studies and research there was always that 8-9% annualized price appreciation in the stock market that was assumed to go on into perpetuity. With the collapse in long term economic growth, what if the entirety of Americans relying upon their 401k's and IRA's, just plain don't get 8-9%? What if it's going to be something more like 5-6%, or maybe like Japan, 0 to -2% for the next 20 years?

Regardless, I am curious what the "Dow would have to be" in order for everybody's retirement plan to work out the way it's supposed to. If somebody wants to take a crack at it (on account that I am lazy) I would certainly be interested in seeing the numbers as well as the methodology.

And then I will laugh heartily when we see how egregiously and impossibly high that number is compared to the reality of American economic productive capacity.

Enjoy the Decline!

Hey, look at that booming economy!

Anybody want to join me for a scotch on the top floor of the Titanic?

Thursday, June 03, 2010

Or Courtney Munna Could Have Just Read This

I don't know how much clearer I can make it. (or if you prefer paperback, here)

But then again, reality doesn't matter. It's what you want to do and what your heart tells you and that's all that matters. I'm sure majoring in communications will land you a job somewhere.

If you want to see denial (or just an outright lack of spine on the part of people telling Courtney the reason she doesn't have a job is because she majored in a worthless subject) just read the comments here. It's amazing and appalling the sheer ignorance these people display.

Wednesday, June 02, 2010

The $64,000 Question Is...

Will people now change their minds and realize this was a cowardly attempt by terrorists, guised under noble, humanitarian clothing to smuggle weapons in (and thus in part admit there is now a desire of lefter leaning elements to combined forces with terrorism) and therefore condemn it


Will they refuse to admit they're wrong and tacitly support terrorism because their leftist ideology blinds them from any kind of capacity for intellectual honesty


They will cowardly claim this report is false and that the Israeli's made it up.

It is a very important question because it's going to test whether people (primarily of the lefter persuasion) can set aside their ideologies and as adults acknowledge they were wrong and condemn terrorism or if their ideology is so strong they will still maintain their positions and thus tacitly APPROVE OF TERRORISM.

I shall now sit back and watch this unfold like a movie, much like a did the housing crash, without an utter care or concern because simply it's a lost cause and life is too short to worry about things you don't control. So, enjoy the decline!

Today's Idiot Is...

You have to read down a bit to find out why this moron is out $100,000 and unlikely to ever pay it back.

The crusade against worthless degrees will continue.

Tuesday, June 01, 2010

Three Blind Mice

Imagine the smile on the Captain's face when he saw not one, not two, but THREE banks he had approached before regarding having him do their loan analysis for them mentioned in this little article.

Now if only...ah, never mind. You know the rest of it.