1. talking way over normal everyday people's heads
2. usually are quite often wrong because they are more concerned about supporting one particular line of economic thought instead of ackowledging the empirical real world.
It's just a general theory now with the details and tenets being worked out in my head as I hike and ride, but some day it will be my "General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" but it won't suck and will be understandable by the masses. And no, I'm not even going to tell what it is because I do not want other economists taking the idea and running with it.
Anyhoo, with this new theory prompted me to conduct an informal and unscientific study. It won't seem any different than any previous sociological study I've done, but it does have its origins in my new theory - specifically why can't those girls find a man.
In a post I requested men estimate the percent of their free time they spent pursuing the fairer sex at the following ages:
15, 25, 35, 45, 55, and 65
Out of the 27 data points only one was 65 years of age and it was zero, so I only have data for ages 15-55.
I then averaged them out to estimate a "demand curve" of ladies for men at varying ages. And it looks like this.
In short men (while still boys) spend 15% of their free time chasing girls, peaking at around 24% when 25 and then consistently declining to only 2% in the three decades thereafter.
What this confirms is something we've already known - that as men age they leave the market. But that's precisely the point. It CONFIRMS. I don't like going into debates with theories, I like going into debates with facts and knowledge because I don't care to debate. I care to be informed.
Regardless, though just a single and simple chart, it has ramifications.
First, it validates work done by The Rational Male, namely his attempts to chart "Sexual Market Value." No doubt he has gotten guff and accusations of misogyny for daring to chart such a thing, but it is reality and reality cannot be bigoted or sexist. The above chart just provides more empirical data to prove it.
Second, it explains why as women age "they can't find a good man" or "where have all the good men gone." As I've explained before, they went home. This is a very important point to make because it shows the classical signs of an economic bubble. There was HUGE demand earlier for women. Men would flood the market with attention, effort, time and energy trying to find girls. Just think of all the time you would go to parties, clubs, online dating profiles, etc. etc, just to get a number back when you were 23. Men would make themselves available as much as they possibly could.
But then the bubble bursts.
Men no longer go out "clubbing." They don't log into their Match.com account as much. And they could go to that desperate singles event, but the game is on. And soon the supply of attention that was previously flooding the market and driving the SMV of women up, plummets, driving down the "units of attention" per woman.
However, I fear there is a "Wile E. Coyote" experience these ladies have. They have been so accustomed to being flooded with attention, they don't realize the ground has been taken out from beneath them. They are like the McMansion buyer in 2005 who lost his job in 2006, has to sell the house and "can't believe," nay, REFUSES to believe his house had gone down in value. Ironically, he only worsens his situation in delaying the sale based on pride as the market tanks further.
Third, also notice age has an effect. A 25 year old man is looking for a 25 year old woman. But at the age of 55, they 55 year old man is probably not looking for a 55 year old woman. Matter of fact, most of his attention and efforts are going to be expended on a (roughly estimated) 45 year old woman. This means the chart is even worse for aging women.
In short, however, the chart does answer where all the "good men" have gone. They're still alive. There wasn't a disease that wiped them out. They merely aren't in the market anymore and are expending their free time on other things.
15 comments:
Good point. A substantial number of men do leave the "meet market". There is also another factor - lifespan. We men have a shorter one. In other words, more men die sooner than women. From what I recall, women just begin to outnumber men at age 35 in the USA due to a five year shorter life. It is very noticeable at 45 (in my case). Of course in countries like the Ukraine or Russia, the lifespan difference is approx. 15 years, from what I read in their publications. Which means the gender ratio becomes lopsided far sooner. Probably in the late 20's age range.
"Where have all the good men gone?" Well, either back in your 20's where you left them, or the graveyard.
Oh yes. I know a few 40 y.o. women on the market and they still expect that they will pull a man of similar age. They speak with disgust of getting nothing but 50-60 year old men replying to their nonlinear dating profiles. Reality is rejected.
"Matter of fact, most of [the 55 year old's] attention and efforts are going to be expended on a (roughly estimated) 45 year old woman" and likely has the higher income to be selective.
there's another factor at work here that neither your nor rollo tracks.
the decline has an effect on SMV. as scarcity increases, male value will increase and female value will plummet. men will be far more valuable and desired as they pick up the pieces and hold the few tattered fragments of civilization together. women will be nothing but dependents, leeching off the most careful and well stocked man they can run across. so basically, a lot like women today, but looking for a literal human male instead of the personification of "big daddy" through a direct deposit from an ex-husband or government handout.
So after all of the years where I have lived, some of the desperate singles show up, where I happen to be. They ask, "So seeing anyone?" I always say no. Their eyes light up and the smiles abound until they ask and find out I am not interested. They say,"Well what is the matter? Do you want to die alone?" I say, " I was already married once for 14 years and it was death from the day after my last child was born." I could go on, but in the end I always tell these women, "look, I have all the money I need, no harridan harpy ruining my day, and no red headed bastard step children using their mother's sexual habits to push me around. After that statement, it gets interesting. Sorry ladies, I am single, comfortable, and have no interest in your crap lives.
great post. I found a site for you.
http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/06/how-your-college-major-affects-your-employment-and-wages-in-2-charts/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=062713
Found these two charts that prove your point about worthless degrees.
I'm middle aged and I would still chase women if they had a more pleasant demeanor and took care of their physical appearances better. The question is, why are they like this now? Bubbles are caused by government intervention. Too many single women is caused in the same way that too many houses being built or too many kids getting college degrees is. The government has lowered the cost for women to stay single. If you eliminated all the welfare, unfair divorce and child custody laws, affirmative action and make work government jobs filled with women, the bubble creating swarms of fat harridan single women that men don't want to have anything to do with would pop.
A lot of women also don't take into account that as they age, the pool of eligible men ("good" or not) naturally gets smaller and smaller. Case in point: when I was a 21-year-old woman, I was attracted to men ages 19 to 50. I'm now a 30-year-old woman. I'm married, but if I were single there would be a whole decade of men in their 20s that are now off-limits to me (let's get real, how many "cougar" situations result in LTRs/marriages?) So now I'm restricted to men my age or older. But by their 30s and 40s, most men are either married already or have decided they don't want to marry. So most of the "good" (i.e. commitment-oriented) men are off the market, and only the players and bachelors are left. In addition, women have accumulated lots of dating experience by their 30s and their standards ironically tend to be higher in comparison to her 20s, when she was more open to experience.
So even if a 40-year-old woman was just as fertile and attractive as a 20-year-old (the myth feminists are intent on selling), she would STILL face a drastically limited SMP each year she waited to settle down as more and more men moved into the "too young" demographic, got married or dropped out of the SMP entirely. I don't understand why so many women refuse to accept this basic fact. Nobody is owed a life partner; you need to start making choices early on to find one. If you don't, that's on YOU.
I remember reading an article for F. Roger Devlin and in he quoted a man with regards to a women's marriage value.
"If I don't get the kitten, what makes you think I want the cat?"
Words to live by.
Mark, that's a hellish image that you conjure up at the end if your comment. Now looking for mind-bleach - Nurse!
Greetings from Finland. In here a marketing director for Audi brushed the feminist consensus to wrong direction by suggesting that a ideal age for a woman to have relationship with is (man's age/2 + 7) Hence known as the Audi rule in common parlance, so the ideal match for a M55 is F35. I think it has some truth in it I'm 35 and tend to fancy birds who are around 25.
All this man with women, marriage, etc disgusts me.
There is an old couple extremely ugly and gross in my neighborhood that I see once in a while.
I also see a big fat woman with an ok looking guy. Everytime I want to puke.
I think that love is the most diabolical weapon ever devised that traps good men into disgusting situations.
In fact, even if I'm ok looking, I even disgust my own self. I don't want to be a human. Let me out of here, life is disgusting and monstrous.
With all that said, why don't you all stay single with no kids and spend money on yourselves instead.
Who cares that the economy must survive ! Who cares about the continuation of the human race !
Let's all quit.
Oh, it gets worse, too.
As women get older, they're more interested in marrying. Who's left in the marriage pool when the woman is 30? Not the reliable, steady, attractive guys, but the guys who've never been married, and the guys who've been divorced. (And the guys cheating on their wives. Only delusional women think these sorts of guys are worth marrying.)
Which men at age 30 or 35 have never been married?
1) The players. The guys who can find a hot woman, have a sexual relationship with her, for a night or for a year, then pull the plug and find another hot woman. Even if he's pulling not-so-hot women, he's getting the variety he wants, without having to make a commitment.
2) The losers. The guys who are too nerdy or too broke or too flaky or too something - they'd like to be married, but nobody has found them good enough yet.
How about the divorced men? There's a good reason most of them are divorced. Sure - you can blame it on women's hypergamous impulses, but truth is, something went wrong. The guy played more alpha than he was willing or able to sustain, and let himself go somehow, and his wife pulled the plug. Even the guys who got married *because* they were decent providers - they got laid off, and didn't find better paying work right away, or something else. First time, that can be bad luck, but it also makes you more unlucky in the future, and women sense that.
So not only is the dating and mating pool smaller as women get older, but it's lower quality, too.
This is cool!
I love economics.
Post a Comment