There is much ballyhoo and hoopla about the 3% increase in year over year spending from last year's Black Friday weekend. "Perma-bulls," analysts who forever think stock markets always go up no matter what, are heralding this as proof the recession is not as bad as most think and is reason to start buying stocks and get that perma-bull market going again.
I ask stupid, elementary questions like "does that 3% even exceed inflation?"
"Well who cares about sales if they had to discount their products so much they weren't making any profit anyway?"
But I found this chart interesting in that it's the first chart showing a decrease in consumer spending online.
The problem I have with Black Friday (aside from soccer moms causing traffic jams as they stop in the middle of road to contemplate which way to turn) is that it is more of a holiday event than a genuine economic event. That shopping is "just what you do" after Thanksgiving, not to mention you need to get out as your family is driving you crazy. Ergo, yes, traditional sales may be up 3%, but that is due to a social phenomenon, whereas online sales are down and online purchases are purely more of one of an economic nature.
I will say it before, and I'll say it again, the stock market was accurately valued around 7,500-8,000. And this does NOT consider the potential drop in corporate earnings in the future which may be well worse than I expect.
So enjoy the sucker's rally. I'm saving up a little bit o' cash.