Rantings and tirades of a frustrated economist.
To date, none of the models can start with 50 year old data, and correctly "predict" weather from 49 years ago to the present.None of them.
BUT THAT'S NOT THE SAME THING!Because math and stuff. It's not my strength.He he. Seriously, we had immigrant "engineers" at an old company use that like they're get out of jail card. It didn't matter what. If they didn't want to do it it's suddenly wasn't their strength.
I have a mathematical model for roulette. It is incredibly inaccurate at predicting the outcome of the next spin, but it will predict with devastating accuracy how much you will lose in the long run. This is pretty much the same thing and what's more you know it.
Nevertheless, I would not recommend that trip to Florida right now. This really blows.
I'll believe weather models for the next hundred years when they can accurately predict the weather tomorrow.In before "macro vs micro": Small differences add up over time. (Look at rogue waves which the models said were impossible, that is, until they were recorded on video and the models were updated.) The longer timeline the more error propagates into the model. If they can't predict cloud cover next week how can they account for its effects in the larger model over decades? "Empirical averages"? Averages of what? a few thousand sensors of highly variable provenance and local environment over the course of /at best/ 40 years since the invention of reasonable digital thermometers in the 1970's?
Irma is taking a similar path to Hurricane Hugo (1989). Though a little more over Florida and into Georgia.I have friends up Georgia way. Hoping that him and his family are going to be alright.
Are these models similar to the ones predicting a HILLARY landslide victory? Maybe I need a few extra tarps and more gas for my generator :-)
Any numbskull knows if global warming does exist, we can cool the earth using sulphur dioxide factories spread in quadrants around the globe. This would create a mini volcano effect. Problem solved for less than $1 billion.Unfortunately, the mental minority political complex wants to loot trillions.
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