Monday, October 03, 2016

Why Donald Trump is Doomed to Fail

I had just finished a nerd-econo-blogger-podcaster conference in Cincinnati.  It was a great time full of booze, poker, philosophy, economics, and all the stuff that makes for the rare addictive fix intelligent people crave.  And while there was general consensus among this meeting of the minds, there was one issue where I was the odd man out.

Hope.

Hope for what?

Hope for the future of America, specifically through Donald Trump.

The reason I was in the single-person minority was because my colleagues genuinely believed that not only is there a chance America can be saved from a Soviet-esque 75 year nightmare, but Donald Trump is going to win the  election.  They would talk about "what needs to be done" or would start off sentences with "we need to do XXX" as if this Titanic was salvageable.  Some even made the (rightful) argument that America, freedom, and liberty were the most noble of causes worth fighting for no matter what the odds.

I was certainly on their side and took no issue as to what "should be" in this world, but where I differed with the consensus was in the realm of practicality.  I just don't live in "Shoulda Land."

Ergo, given their majority opinion is likely a good proxy for fellow libertarian, conservative, and freedom-lovers' opinions, I wanted to make the argument why I believe Donald Trump not only will fail, but is doomed to fail.  And the reasons are two.

First, despite all of The Don's charisma and refreshingly blunt talk, one has to remember the re-election of Barack Obama.  A veritable socialist who FAILED MISERABLY to get the economy moving again, I was convinced any self-respecting American would vote his incompetent ass out of office.  Leftist or not, minority or not, male or female, people would realize he not only failed to live up to (unrealistic) expectations, but only worsened the long term financial stability of the US.  You throw in Obamacare and I truly thought American would wake the f*ck up and vote him out.

They did not.

And what that taught me was that not only can a conservative never win the presidency ever again with 15% (and increasing) of our population being minorities (who tribalistically vote for socialism), but too high a percent of the population (including whites) are wedded to a socialist ideology to such a zealous level their emotions have totally eclipsed any intelligent thinking they're capable off.

The second, and iron-clad reason The Don is not the second coming of Ronald Reagan, is a variable I'm shockingly surprised nobody has brought up or thought of before. 

Congress.

Perhaps it's because I remember the Jesse Ventura administration, but the executive branch does not stand alone.  This isn't a monarchy, it's a democracy.  And the executive branch (gubernatorial or presidential) has to deal with a legislature.  And the legislature, BOTH republican and democrats hate Trump.

This is the real reason any discussion about "President Trump," let alone the "saving of America" is moot and a waste of time.  I'm sure people are very excited to see the first non-politician get nominated for a major political party's presidential ticket.  And as I drive further south past the Mason Dixon line, it becomes increasingly more apparent.  But even if he does get elected...

So what?

You think congress is going to work with him to actually improve things?  I, sadly, predict this will go down very much like a Jesse Ventura administration and nothing long term, fundamental, nor genuinely hopeful will come of it.

The truth is minorities are too brainwashed, people are too stupid, and congress is too corrupt to "get the government the WWII generation deserves."  And while I know there may be some hope, perhaps wishful thinking, in the end you not only have to financially and physically prepare yourself for a decline with silver, guns, and overseas investments, you need to prepare yourself mentally for what's about to come.

Alas, I suggest you learn to enjoy the decline.

28 comments:

heresolong said...

Congress is the only reason that the Obama administration wasn't far worse for America than it actually was, but of course they don't get any credit. Instead they are labeled as Rino's for getting what they can when they can. Donald Trump will not be the savior but not because of Congress, rather because the American people are getting the government they deserve, the government they want,

MoonShadow said...

I hope you are wrong about this one Cappy; but, sadly, I suspect that you are not.

Thane Eichenauer said...

Will the US government reduce its bombing and occupation of the Middle East? I can hope that President Donald Trump would do so but I don't have any firm basis by which to base such a hope.

I look to Mike Cernovich and Scott Adams for optimism but their words are overshadowed by the factual observation made by Aaron.

Post Alley Crackpot said...

There's only really one thing he can do to "improve" things on a massive scale ...

But when he does it, he'll create an American version of Brexit in terms of currency valuation, although the end result may be that some of those off-shored jobs will be "coming home".

That'll be the result of cheaper American labor, not because of anything else.

Remain vigilant and Enjoy That Decline.

Endings said...

You're Generation X. You tell it like it is.

Demographics is the big one. That's the Tsunami.

The second is the Establishment. They haven't lost in over 40 years now, maybe longer.

Down the ship goes.

Dave S. said...

Captain is right sadly.
But Trump could definitely stop a conflict with Russia.

I don't think he can stop the break-up of The United States.
That's what's on the cards with more Democrat Party Rule/Big Gov/ Big Debt.
There will be secession.
Crazy?

Anonymous said...

Hillary is an even bigger favorite after the debate. Source? Vegas betting oddsmakers. A truly unbiased source. Bias on their part means a loss of money. Hillary is -300 (substantial favorite for non-bettors). Prepare accordingly.

August said...

I figure the parallels between Trump and Ventura are pretty strong too.

But the hope I have is a small hope. Trump is not ideologically motivated and he once stated he didn't want to lay out his plans (I think it was on foreign policy, but it could apply to anything) because he knew he would be going in to make a deal, and he didn't want the other party to know everything he wanted or planned to do.

So, to be clear, I am pretty pessimistic. Any standard Republican would have been horrible. Hilary will be horrible. With Trump there's this tiny possibility of not horrible. He may know enough of the donor class and be able to make calls to the people who can then make calls to Congress and tell them to play ball with Trump or the money gets cut off.

Another little hope is currently the F.B.I. obviously won't go after Hilary, even though they should according to the law. Additionally, just by watching C-span you can find officials brazenly giving the public reasons to indict. In other words, there's a whole lot of lawbreaking going on, and Trump isn't part of the mutual lawbreaking society. He may find putting officials in jail for their crimes not only good in itself, but worthwhile to end any stonewalling anyone wants to do.

Some have even suggested that it is perfectly legal for the president to fire anyone he wants. It is probably true, from a constitutional perspective at least. This is one of many potential actions Trump could try. It would probably generate lawsuits against him or his administration, but he's used to that from the business world.

So I'm more hopeful when he is himself, and much less hopeful when he acts Presidential. When he selected Pence, a lot of the fun went right out of it. Pence is standard GOP, as far as I know, which means he would just reinforce the decline.

anonymousX said...

Damn it Cappy, once in a while would you write something that I could disagree with.

You are of course spot on with the main point you make here. The average U.S. smuck is clearly doomed for the long term. Like a cancer that has metastasized throughout the body, we’re stuck with this current rotten form of govt which will be with us indefinitely. Anyone who thinks the situation that happened in Mother Russia’s communist system for some 70 years cannot possibly occur in this perverted environment has rocks for brains.

And btw, DJT will never get a chance to change anything in govt because I estimate his chances of winning are now, oh, about 20 to 1. And even if he could pull off the biggest upset since the Jets beat Baltimore in Super Bowl III, the cancer in govt is so ingrained that you could fill both houses in congress with Trump clones and it still wouldn’t matter. We are locked in to a guaranteed long term grinding depression that will cause most people to live at a much much lower standard of living than they ordinarily would have.

Tough luck guys…and welcome to amerika in the 21st century.

Omega man said...

I personally think we are headed for a Bronze Age style collapse, that is a total and complete obliteration of civilization as we know it.

Europe is already a lost cause, as the so called elite refuse to see what is happening on the ground. Unskilled Muslim migrants are pouring into Germany, France and Italy. Unable to work at meaningful jobs, they consume an inordinate percentage of public funds in the form of welfare and other social programs that are denied even to long time citizens. The migrants have no skills whatsoever and a great many are even illiterate in their own tongues. Crimes such as rape, sexual assault, theft, robbery, drug dealing are spiking and out of control. There are NO-GO zones where even the police fear to tread and yet to even talk about the problem can get you arrested and charged with a hate crime.

What is particularily worrisome is a move to make the physical and social sciences Sharia compliant. Muslims, no matter how backward and primitive a society they came from, think of themselves as superior to the infidel. In their mind, the works of the infidel are based on ignorance and deserve to be destroyed. What progress humanity has made will be wiped out as we enter a long and terrifying dark age.

Gay rights? The reality is that they will be thrown off of tall buildings. Women's rights? Honor killings and stonings will be the norm, and yet the elite dare to call all who question their narrative as Islamophobes.

People will rightfully say that moderate Muslims do not think that way and that may be true, but what they don't realize is that the moderates will themselves be killed by the extremists thus destroying what vestiges of civility are left.

It's already happening as the Jihadist movements are gaining strength.

As in the Weimar Republic, the elite thought that they could control the Nazis, but as it turned out, the ruthlessness and brutality of the SA and SS ensured that the reverse was true.

tpkeefe said...

The difficulties in dealing with Congress are nothing new. Every president has had to deal with that.

However, Congress was far less polarized in Reagan's day.

Max said...

Your two points are good points, but they are not even the tip of the Iceberg.
I think most libertarians and conservatives are deluded when it comes to Trump. He has a certain charisma and charme, yes, but his policy prescriptions are blunt and not very well thought-out. Most of all, his ideas are not very libertarian or even capitalistic in the old sense of both words...

Tucanae Services said...

One could make the opposite argument -- It is strategically useful that Clinton win this election. If you believe that sometime in the next 4 years the system craters regardless of who is in office, then you want HRC at the helm. That way she can be the 21st Century version of Herbert Hoover.

munch said...

You do understand that in every war there are bleak moments when victory is not assured, or looks unlikely, or looks impossible. In WWII it was not a case of Great Britain simply executing properly and victory was assured. The whole enterprise was in grave doubt.

Anonymous said...

You are one of the only writers in the 'Manosphere' who is willing to take an objective view of Trump. Regardless of who wins this shit show we call an election, I will likely continue to read your blog because of that. I will likely abandon other bloggers like Heartiste and Cernovich, who are either unwilling or unable to see Trump for what he is. I cannot continue to read the writing of those who are either blind or corrupt.

Trump is obviously not as corrupt and soul-less as Hillary. However, Trump is a loud-mouthed, self-promoting buffoon who seems to have absolutely no idea what he is talking about. Trump has yet to speak clearly about any economic issues, and his understanding of foreign policy is non-existent. If Trump thinks he can bully Putin or the Chinese with in-your-face loud talk, he is grossly mistaken. That kind of shit may fly in a boardroom full of pussies, but it won't work against ruthless killers like Putin.

America is quite fucked, regardless of who wins this silly, fake election. The country is thoroughly divided after Obama. People are beginning to show their true colors. People I used to respect have gone all-in on Trump. Their rationalizations are beyond comical, and their desperation is palpable. Trump is the guy with the dead squirrel on his head who had the show on NBC...after all. He's not going to save America.

People who see this shit for what it is are few and far between. I'm glad to see that you are one of them. We are in a very, very small minority.

grey enlightenment said...

it doesn't really matter that he is doomed to fail. people vote for him because he represents their values

Anonymous said...

Wow, not one comment?

Karl said...

I was in attendance, and although I prefer a bottle in front of me over a frontal lobotomy, I was quite sober during this discussion. While Cappy makes good points and may be absolutely correct, I'd like to offer the additional considerations:

1) I'm optimistic because Trump represents a turn for the better, rather than the usual Republican who will slow or stop the decline. I think Trump's ego will not let him settle for a typical Republican administration.

2) Timing: It took Reagan, with congress and the Fed, three years to reverse the four years of Carter. And Carter was a patriot compared to our current dear leader. It would have been wrong to judge Reagan after one year, and would be wrong to judge Trump now, or early in his term.

3) Things will still suck. Assume Trump builds a wall, stops muslim immigration, deports a bunch of illegals, lowers taxes and boosts manufacturing jobs by fixing trade agreements. That focus means other areas may be left unfixed and likely to further decline. If that scenario defines failure for you, then pessimism is your only option.

My $0.02. Go Cubs.

Anonymous said...

even if doomed to fail, I would much rather have Trump at the helm than Hillary/Candy(Kaine). In a time of crisis, the former would be much more likely to keep our civil liberties intact (rather than tear them down ...e.g. 1st and 2nd Amendments), put American citizens first (instead of foreigners), secure our borders from illegals and terrorists (vs encouraging them to come in), and end this PC-Orwellian world which we currently find ourselves in (vs. allowing it to continue to evolve). Trump, even if he doesn't end up turning things around (and he has a much better shot at doing it than Hillary/Candy), would end up slowing down the process to buy time.

Anonymous said...

even if doomed to fail, I would much rather have Trump at the helm than Hillary/Candy(Kaine). In a time of crisis, the former would be much more likely to keep our civil liberties intact (rather than tear them down ...e.g. 1st and 2nd Amendments), put American citizens first (instead of foreigners), secure our borders from illegals and terrorists (vs encouraging them to come in), and end this PC-Orwellian world which we currently find ourselves in (vs. allowing it to continue to evolve). Trump, even if he doesn't end up turning things around (and he has a much better shot at doing it than Hillary/Candy), would end up slowing down the process to buy time.

Steffen said...

Some problems are systemic. The visible corruption represented by Hillary and company is analogous to dry rot in a building. You will need to pull out and replace all the damage or you're not going to have any walls left standing in that area when the next big storm hits.

The FBI and Congress seeing this stuff and not doing anything indicates there's a whole lot more damage we can't see.

The relative apathy of the citizenry and their lack of understanding their place of supreme power in the system of law we're supposed to be operating by is very concerning. That problem was engineered by the people who screwed up the school system years ago. Can't fix what you don't understand...

Lab Guy said...

"You are one of the only writers in the 'Manosphere' who is willing to take an objective view of Trump."

I don't have high hopes either but I think a Trump win wold help morale for a few months. He is more authoritarian than I care for; I mean, who wants any part of the federal government becoming more efficient at what they do?

He is surrounding himself with some neo connish advisors but I'm hoping that's to keep your friends close and enemies closer. I don't see any signs he wants a war with Russia. It's no secret Putin likes the clowns Obama has running policy.

I'd prefer a more limited government candidates, but once again even the libertarians have a made a joke of themselves with Johnson/Weld and their stupid insistence on way 'open borders'.

Gawain said...

You should accept that collectivism has utterly vanquished libertarianism and learn to deal with it. Choose the form of collectivism that is otherwise most beneficial. If one is interested in preserving Western Civilization and its many achievements, then ethnic nationalism is the form of collectivism that should be embraced. Hence the emergence of the "Alt-Right."

There's a reason the Left has found so much traction with identity politics. Conservatives and libertarians have stubbornly pretended that propositional abstractions can unite people just as well as blood and soil. They can't.

Demonic Professor El said...

@heresolong

"Congress is the only reason that the Obama administration wasn't far worse for America than it actually was, but of course they don't get any credit."

As bad as Congress can be, they actually did put the brakes on a lot of Obama policies, especially the 2009-2010 agendas.

I remember Premier Obama wanted to have cars installed with meters that would either stop or penalize travelers that drove over something like 300 miles in one day. The O also floated around making cars made before 1980 illegal. And have it illegal to own/drive a car in metropolitan areas.

There was also the floating of government takeover of AM radio, XFM/Sirius, and attempts at taking over Ford Motor Company.

Then all those goofy gun grab ideas, over the top environmental regs, extra food taxes, extra marriage penalty taxes.

Ineffectual the RINOs may be, but they were constantly bombarded with Leftist attacks by the Executive branch.

Cole D said...

I'm actually surprised how few Trump supports have noticed the inevitability of Trump being hamstrung by Congress and the Senate. I'm a Canadian and observed this symbolic victory, if it even happens, without substance long ago.

We're doomed said...

and congress is too corrupt to "get the government the WWII generation deserves."

Let us not forget a number of that generation went to Congress and had fought Nazis and communist contributed much to the current decline by voting for more and more government after WWII. I truly don't have a bit of respect for those who served and have a voting record more in common with statist than Thomas Jefferson.

Jose Romero said...

Like you Aaron i do believe that Trump will not be the savior they want him to be. Its going to take a lot more than a celebrity with hopes and dreams. This country needs to destroy itself before it can be great again. When Trump becomes President democrats and republicans are going to destroy him! Sure anyone can talk a good game but when push comes to shove shit will still be the same!

Jobs will not come back, the economy will only get worse, prices will continue upward.

Go ahead and continue thinking hes going tomsave you! You want to be saved then go to church!

MoonShadow said...

I am not interested in preserving what is left of Western civilization, if it requires me to choose between the "lesser" of communist evils. Soft despotism is still despotism.