Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Temper Your Hopes for Trump

The election of Donald Trump was historic.  Not because of his unconventional manner in which he ran his campaign.  Not because of his unconventional style in which he runs himself.  And not because every presidential election is historic.  It's genuinely historic because...

he is the first non-politician to be elected since Dwight Eisenhower.

This is the real reason people should have hope in Donald Trump.  Because he was never a politician.  And though my support for Trump is timid, and I am forever the pessimist, if there is a president I can see who will actually make tangible improvements, it's Donald Trump because he has 0 F's to G.

This, however, does not mean I'm a screaming, feinting school girl whose watching Elvis swing his hips.  I'm not some teeny bopper bobby-soxer crying because the Beatles are on the Ed Sullivan Show.  I'm not some hippy baby boomer woman getting wet to Mick Jagger.  And I'm certainly not some black single-mom of 7 from the south side of Chicago fawning over Barack Obama at Grant Park.  But some people on the right, including colleagues of mine ARE when it comes to Donald Trump.

Ergo, just like the insanely-over-rated Beatles music
The OD-ing Elvis Presley
And the failed-to-perform Affirmative Action president

people on the right need to temper their expectations of Trump.

First, the man hasn't done anything yet.  Heck, he hasn't even been inaugurated!  But I've heard people heralding his coming as the "saving of America," or the "dawn of a second golden age."  I even recall an article (or a comment, I can't remember which) saying that there will never be a democrat president ever again.

Please.  You have to be kidding me.

I prefer to look at Trump as I would any prospective date with a girl or business I conduct with a company - Nothing happens until it happens.

Just because a girl agrees to a date doesn't mean she's going to show.  And just because you've done work for a company, doesn't mean you're going to get paid.  The girl can stand you up at the last moment and the company's check can bounce.  Ergo, I think it is wise to judge Trump's performance....when there's a performance to actually judge.

Second, as I've said before, Trump does not get to willy nilly dictate new laws.  He has a congress where both parties hate him, and members even within his "own" party are RINO enough to vote with the democrats.  This of course would not reflect upon Trump if congress decides to get in his way, but it will directly affect what he can and cannot deliver to the American people.

Third, if any real progress is to be made, the challenges facing him are (in his own words) "uuuuge."  Deporting 3 million illegals, re-establishing American sovereignty, restructuring Obamacare, deconstructing the leftist education industry, solving social security/medicare, closing the deficit, paying off the debt, scaling back the welfare state.  These challenges will present Trump incredible backlash, even necessary violence in the street if he is to seriously solve these problems.  At best a president has maybe managed to solve one problem of this magnitude during his entire tenure (Clinton closing the deficit, though that was due to the dotcom bubble economy, and Bush Jr. landing the largest tax cuts since Reagan...along side the largest spending increases since LBJ).  But to have Trump tackle all 8, and successfully so?  I would not hold your breath.

And finally, demographics.  Understand one of the main (and many) reasons Trump won was because the democrats put up a HORRIBLE candidate, while also alienating its base by cheating Bernie Sanders out of a fair primary race.  This resulted in 2 million less voters turning out for Hillary than did Obama.  Ergo, it's not so much that Trump "won over America" as much as it was Hillary pissing off blue-collar democrats and anybody with a soul.  This suggests Trump's win was a lucky fluke, and if we look at long term demographic trends in the US, I believe it's the LAST TIME we will see a republican presidency. 

By 2047 whites will no longer be the majority population in the US.  This doesn't mean that minorities always vote left....but minorities always vote left.  Combine this with the fact younger generations, fresh from the brainwashing academy of the public schools and American colleges, vote left more than...well...ever and there is a structural trend in America's voting bloc against conservatism, freedom, liberty, capitalism, and the individual.  The ONLY hope the republican party (and America) has is to win over minority males with blunt force truth and talk about the reality of the country, the world, the economy, and (frankly) women.  Trump achieved a modicum of this, winning over more minority males than Romney and McCain, and if there's an ounce of intelligence within the GOP (which there is not) they would try to reverse engineer the formula why, and mass produce it in time for the next election.

Still, even though I know this secret formula (stop treating minority men like idiots and explain how the government has replaced them), it is doubtful there's enough conservatives and libertarians in the country who have the balls like Trump to disseminate this message to minority males, thereby winning them over.  And it is because of that I am warily hopeful of a Trump presidency, and infinitely confident that in 4-8 years we will once again be enjoying the decline.
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19 comments:

duck said...

If Trump can only accomplish one of his goals I hope he brings our sovereignty back by securing the borders and deporting ALL illegal immigrants. I think that is the most pressing issue and we need to solve that before worrying about anything else. Since the beginning of civilization leaders organized people to defend the border and stop invaders. I don't know what the fuck people like Merkel and Obama are thinking, not just letting invaders come in, but funding them to take over!

Faithless Cynic said...

Cappy, I voted for Trump due to tone of voice. This is an important but neglected factor in choosing a president. Who would YOU rather listen to for the next four to eight years? Blunt but well spoken Donald Trump or that screeching fucking harpy Hillary " Data Security " Clinton?

Post Alley Crackpot said...

"I'm not some teeny bopper bobby-soxer ..."

You'd look like shit in a dress anyway. :-)

Robert What? said...

I voted for Trump but I was as surprised as anyone that he won. You are right: he is not some kind of Second Coming and I don't think he will do or be able to do 75% of what he is saying. For example, I don't believe the repatriation of millions of illegal aliens will occur. But hopefully he will somewhat close the floodgates opened by Obama. But he does have the precedent of legislating by Executive Order. Certainly not invented by Obama, but well used by him.

Anonymous said...

Aaron. Looks like it is going to happen:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-to-forgive-at-least-108-billion-in-student-debt-in-coming-years-1480501802

Just google student loan debt. The next bailout...

FraserOrr said...

I think a decent model to consider is Margret Thatcher during the 1980s. She basically saved Britain from becoming Greece. Of course her gains weren't spectacular. Britain didn't turn into a Libertarian paradise. But her gains were quite significant, defanging the unions, privatization of major industries, cutting taxes, and many others. Her tenure was accompanied by major rioting on the street.

I think that is how it will go with Trump. He will make significant changes, and there will be riots (hell there already are and he hasn't done anything.)

However, the interesting thing about Thatcher is what came after her. After she left office and after her successor Major left office, the left wing party, Labor, adopted many, many of her policies. He tenure not only changed things, but changed what was considered the default, normal, middle of the road position. And that is surely a long term thing.

At the most basic level, if Trump can get rid of Obamacare and replace it with HSAs, cross state line purchases, and make healthcare be treated equally from a tax perspective whether you are an employee or not. If he can cut taxes, particularly the corp tax rate, and repatriate billions of dollars with a special tax rate. If he can get some better control of the borders and start deporting criminal illegals, and put in place a hiring freeze and a two for one regulation rule. And if he can do all that without screwing up trade too badly, or blowing too much cash on the military or "infrastructure", then he presidency will be the mos successful since Reagan, in fact possibly better than Reagan.

All these things really are achievable. But he could also punt on all of these. Talk is cheap. We have to see if he has the balls to do it, and the negotiating skills to make it happen.

Anonymous said...

@duck
DEPORTING is only half the problem, the other half, like captain said, its the parasites that are born within the border, cappy gave an example, a minority woman who has 7 offsprings, very likely living off welfare benefits.

DO I HAVE TO SHOUT ? Do you not see THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM ?

I repeat, there are two kind of parasites: those who want to come in, and those who are already in your body and are multiplying at an exponential rate. Sooner or later they will dominate you because that is the definition of EPIDEMIC DISEASE.

David Jravis said...

Let's not forget that prior to making noise about running for office, Trump was a life-long, New York liberal who donated thousands of dollars more to the Democrats (including Hillary Clinton, who he described as an "excellent first lady and outstanding Secretary of State) than he ever did the Republicans.

He VOTED for Obama in 2008. This man is not a Republican, or even a true conservative for that matter. He is, in fact, an old holdout from the days of what Democrats USED to be like... before they became socialists. He, like Clinton, campaigned as a savior who would solve all of our problems, as opposed to a leader, who would enable Americans to solve them on their own.

This is why I do not trust him. Everyone else seems to forget these things about him. I have not. I have no real faith in him. The only reason why I voted for him was because unlike Clinton, Trump will be much more likely to be held accountable for what he says, does, and for whatever scandals he gets mixed up in. Trust me, he will, sooner or later.

Anonymous said...

Would I be in your shoes, I'd expect Trump TO DO NOTHING. You've got the laws, he should hire guys with clear jobs descriptions. They don't do their jobs, he knows what to do (look up The Apprentice). The End.
After 4 years of "Dindu Nuffin", 4 more years of "Dindu Nuffin" will make America great again.

lab guy said...

For now, I'm happy we can go about business without being called 'da rasis' all the time. Christians won't be attacked by the federal government or others as much. It made me happy to see all those SJW's crying with his win. I had not bothered to vote in 20 years for a president.

But yes, Trump is no civil libertarian. Some of his picks are questionable, but we will see. Some feet will have to be held to the fire. We can't get lazy now.

Mr. Bee said...

Ronald Reagan, the exemplar of the successful conservative President, was considered a sell out to a large faction of conservatives at the time. If Trump reforms immigration and installs two strict constitutionalists to SCOTUS I will consider his tenure a success. Even if he has to trade off a number of his other promises to do it. Anything above that will be gravy.

Anonymous said...

I have been around a while I'm over 50 now. I have seen many politicians come and go. Putting your hopes on any politician liberal or conservative is a mistake. Until recently I would have said liberal and conservative is more or less the same. Lately it seems the left has gone completely off the rails. They truly want us to believe things that are completely absurd or the opposite of the truth.

One of the reason I like this blog is the theme of thinking for yourself. What you are being told is true is not necessarily so. The cost of college vs the return is a good example. You need to think for yourself. You need to provide for yourself. A change in politicians will not make you successful you need to be so on your own. If anything politicians will work against you.

Dave S. said...

Brilliantly and succinctly put.

Mark Matis said...

I would only note that President Trump has not even been sworn in yet, but he has already made good on at least two of his promises. Or did you miss the announcements by Ford and by Carrier?

On his own, he will be able to undo the Executive Orders by the FNWIC. For many other things, he will need Congressional action. And since both houses of Congress belong to the Rove Republican swill, that will be difficult. So no, he is unlikely to be able to get everything he promised. But nominating Senator Sessions to be AG is damn sure a good start.

But he sure better not take Supreme Court nominee advice from Lyin' Ted, because after all he is the worthless sonofabitch that got us Roberts.

Anonymous said...

How do you eat an elephant?
One bite at a time.
Every common sense decision, or at least every non-idiotic decision, is another step in the right direction.

Anonymous said...

He's not a politician, but like Ike he had to deal with upper level politicians.
I would imagine that has bred a fair bit of contempt for them.

After he gets his feet under him I expect some short leashes.

Anonymous said...

Why should white = right and color = left ?

If the Republicans rebrand themselves as the job creating party they might seduce the electorate for years ahead.

Anonymous said...

Dear Mr. Clarey,

1) You are an economist. Saudi Arabia and OPEC has just voted a self-sabotage bill by deciding to cut production to raise the price of oil.

2) Trump said he will eliminate all job killing restrictions on America's energy sector, thereby creating millions of jobs.

It looks like OPEC is giving Trump a helping hand by allowing America to take up the slack.

As an economist you clearly understand that OPEC's decision will benefit the US energy sector. This will make Trump look brilliant even though he was not involved with OPEC.

Here is the opportunity to rebrand the Republican party as the job creation party and the economic growth party.

Not all minorities dream of a hand out. Some want opportunities.

OPEC's decision is a big opportunity to make America great again.

duck said...

@Anonymous I agree with you though our priorities are different. If the west does not stop treating illegal immigration as a human right (it is not) the countries and cultures of the west will be dead FOREVER. If the internal parasites crash the economy and cause a depression the countries, and cultures, can still make a comeback. Both are terrible but the first one is worse.

If we can stop illegal immigration then we the American people will be able to decide how many immigrants we want to take in. The discussions then can be; how many can we take and retain our culture? What are the economic positives and negatives to different levels of immigration?