1. talking way over normal everyday people's heads
2. usually are quite often wrong because they are more concerned about supporting one particular line of economic thought instead of ackowledging the empirical real world.
It's just a general theory now with the details and tenets being worked out in my head as I hike and ride, but some day it will be my "General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" but it won't suck and will be understandable by the masses. And no, I'm not even going to tell what it is because I do not want other economists taking the idea and running with it.
Anyhoo, with this new theory prompted me to conduct an informal and unscientific study. It won't seem any different than any previous sociological study I've done, but it does have its origins in my new theory - specifically why can't those girls find a man.
In a post I requested men estimate the percent of their free time they spent pursuing the fairer sex at the following ages:
15, 25, 35, 45, 55, and 65
Out of the 27 data points only one was 65 years of age and it was zero, so I only have data for ages 15-55.
I then averaged them out to estimate a "demand curve" of ladies for men at varying ages. And it looks like this.
In short men (while still boys) spend 15% of their free time chasing girls, peaking at around 24% when 25 and then consistently declining to only 2% in the three decades thereafter.
What this confirms is something we've already known - that as men age they leave the market. But that's precisely the point. It CONFIRMS. I don't like going into debates with theories, I like going into debates with facts and knowledge because I don't care to debate. I care to be informed.
Regardless, though just a single and simple chart, it has ramifications.
First, it validates work done by The Rational Male, namely his attempts to chart "Sexual Market Value." No doubt he has gotten guff and accusations of misogyny for daring to chart such a thing, but it is reality and reality cannot be bigoted or sexist. The above chart just provides more empirical data to prove it.
Second, it explains why as women age "they can't find a good man" or "where have all the good men gone." As I've explained before, they went home. This is a very important point to make because it shows the classical signs of an economic bubble. There was HUGE demand earlier for women. Men would flood the market with attention, effort, time and energy trying to find girls. Just think of all the time you would go to parties, clubs, online dating profiles, etc. etc, just to get a number back when you were 23. Men would make themselves available as much as they possibly could.
But then the bubble bursts.
Men no longer go out "clubbing." They don't log into their Match.com account as much. And they could go to that desperate singles event, but the game is on. And soon the supply of attention that was previously flooding the market and driving the SMV of women up, plummets, driving down the "units of attention" per woman.
However, I fear there is a "Wile E. Coyote" experience these ladies have. They have been so accustomed to being flooded with attention, they don't realize the ground has been taken out from beneath them. They are like the McMansion buyer in 2005 who lost his job in 2006, has to sell the house and "can't believe," nay, REFUSES to believe his house had gone down in value. Ironically, he only worsens his situation in delaying the sale based on pride as the market tanks further.
Third, also notice age has an effect. A 25 year old man is looking for a 25 year old woman. But at the age of 55, they 55 year old man is probably not looking for a 55 year old woman. Matter of fact, most of his attention and efforts are going to be expended on a (roughly estimated) 45 year old woman. This means the chart is even worse for aging women.
In short, however, the chart does answer where all the "good men" have gone. They're still alive. There wasn't a disease that wiped them out. They merely aren't in the market anymore and are expending their free time on other things.