Sunday, May 13, 2007

"Meanwhile, at the Federal Reserve..."

So you would think the people who visit the Federal Reserve's website would be of the slightly highly educated caliber. The types that are pretty in tune with the realities of today's economy. The types that can objectively look at data and not let their personal biases or wishes affect them.
Well, I guess I was wrong.
They have a poll you can take that asks where you think housing prices are going. I took it, expecting to see a large majority predicting housing prices to go down. When you looked at the results, however, the majority of people think prices ARE GOING TO GO UP!

Here's the poll;

Of course only 88 respondents had taken the poll when I took it, but it would be Cappy Cap Terrific if all you deputy, junior, official and otherwise aspiring economists would take the poll and give them you opinion (plus that would just be sweet if the Federal Reserve saw where the hits were coming from, and then they'd call me and say, "Captain Capitalism, the Fed needs you!" Whereby Ben Bernanke and I would work out some kind of deal like Commissioner Gordon and Batman had where they'd send up the Captain Capitalism signal and I'd be the silent protector of the Fed...hey, it could happen!)

Regardless, I found the poll interesting because embedded in nearby research at the Fed they have this chart;

My research shows that prices would have to drop by about 20-40% to get back in line with historic means. Their research shows the same. However, look at California and Florida. Sheesh! The country might not get hit with a recession, but I have a hard time seeing how California and Florida won't.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dude, housing prices ARE going to go up... eventually.

Connie

SoerenM said...

The great thing about the poll is that with so few respondents, what it really shows is which communities decides to act on it. The share of people that believe prices are going to drop has already doubled. Now imagine what would happen if a link to the poll was sent to all the members of some large realtor organization :-)